The news is not unexpected, but it is significant nonetheless: Democratic Rep. Neil Abercrombie is set to jump in Hawaii’s gubernatorial race.
The seat is currently occupied by Republican Governor Linda Lingle, who is barred from seeking a third term due to the state’s term limit laws. Hawaii remains a staunchly blue state and the GOP has a weak bench, making this open seat one of the Democrats’ top take-over opportunities. (Hawaii is ranked third in my gubernatorial rankings.)
Today’s development makes it even more likely that Democrats will reclaim the Governor’s Mansion without too much of a fight. Abercrombie has represented half of the state since he was first elected to the House in 1990; his name recognition is high and he received more than 70% of the vote in his 2008 re-election race. As importantly, Abercrombie could clear the primary field: Other Democrats who were mentioned as potential candidates (for instance Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hanneman) could jump in the House race instead.
By becoming Governor, Abercrombie would also position himself as the natural successor to the state’s Democratic Senators. Daniel Akaka and Daniel Inouye are aging (both are 84) and are expected to retire sometime in the near future. Akaka could do so as early as 2012; Inouye is running for re-election this year, but it is unlikely he would be in a position to do so again in 2016.
If Abercrombie wanted to replace them (especially in 2016), his status as Governor could allow him to waltz in the U.S. Senate. This would be a good development for progressives: Abercrombie is a liberal lawmaker, especially compared with other Democrats who harbor senatorial ambitions like former Rep. Ed Case. Abercrombie was for instance one of the 133 House members who voted against the Iraq War.
Abercrombie’s statewide run also gives us our 12th open House seat of the 2010 cycle , and the 4th that Democrats will have to defend (view full list here).
Democrats are favored to keep HI-01, but they could face some difficulty. While the Hawaii-born Obama crushed McCain in 2008 (70% to 28%), the margin was much closer in 2004: Kerry only prevailed 53% to 47%, suggesting that a Republican can win the district under the right circumstances. (That said, Hawaii voters have only elected a Republican to a federal race once, from 1987 to 1991.)
The GOP is convinced that it has found the perfect candidate: Honolulu city Councilman Charles Djou, who started raising money for a House race in October 2007. (Abercrombie was also a city councilman before winning his House seat.) Djou has met with NRCC officials and has already been endorsed by Governor Lingle. Republicans are so enthused that they have already made HI-01 part of their target list.
That said, Democrats have a very solid bench. Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann is mentioned as a possible candidate, as are state Senate President Collen Hanabusa and former state House Majority Leader Kirk Caldwell. All of them are strong enough that it remains to be seen whether Djou could even make the race competitive.
I find it very suprising that Abercrombie would be running for the Governship, seeing as how he is 70 years old! On the other hand, he is definitly popular enough to walk away with the Hawaii Democratic nomination. And unless the Democrats fail to recruit a top tier candidate (as Taniel detailed there are several) it will be very difficult for the GOP to prevail. Kerry’s showing in 2004 was more of an underwhelming result than a indidcation of how the district is normally compared to Hawaii born Obama. Kerry’s 8% margin of victory in the entire state of Hawaii was considered to be very underwhelming, most other Democratic candidates from Clinton on have won by at least the low to mid double digits in the state.
I also think that if Abercombie tries to run for the Senate in the future, there will be alot of resistance from much younger Democrats arguing that he would be able to stay in the senate for long because of his old age (something former rep Ed Case of Hawaii-2 tried against Senator Akaka in the 2006 Democratic primary).
Indeed, I am puzzled by Taniel’s suggestion that Abercrombie might try to succeed one of Hawai’s two elder senators since he is not exactly a youngster himself. In 2016 he’ll be 78 years old. That’s too much even for a senator.
To me it seems like he is tired of Washington and wants to withdraw honorably from politics through the governorship. After all, Kay Bailey-Hutchison wants to follow the same route.
Jaxx and Panos, I actually had not realized that Abercrombie was that old (not that it’s surprising, considering the standards Hawaii Dems have accustomed us to…) He would indeed be very unlikely to make it to the Senate in 2016.
Having known Neil from the mid nineteen sixties I’m somewhat surprised that no one has taken issue that he has become the very thing he mocked while a graduate student.
Ahhh Neil, you started out as the Gingerman and ended up as a used car salesman. (What would Barbara think if she saw you now?)
I think abercrombie would be good for this but who knows we’ll have to wait and see.
http://www.vancouvertohawaii.ca