Campaign Diaries

In one of the most consequential 2010 developments to date, former Rep. Pat Toomey is telling Pennsylvania Republicans that he will challenge Senator Arlen Specter in the GOP primary. The news, which is bound to satisfy conservatives and Democrats alike, was first reported by the Allentown Morning Call based on conversations with GOP sources close to Toomey who were told of his decision. The Hill looks to have independently confirmed Morning Call’s reporting.

Toomey’s move marks Specter as one of the most vulnerable incumbents of the 2010 cycle, and it dramatically alters the shape of Pennsylvania’s Senate race. Toomey is sure mount one of the most formidable Republican primary challenges of recent history, and his odds of defeating the longtime Senator are not worse than even.

What more could Democrats and conservatives hope for?

Democrats, first: In the best case scenario, they will get a shot at an open seat and run against Toomey, a conservative firebrand far easier to defeat than an incumbent with a history of winning the support of independent voters. (Toomey would have a better shot in the general election of a state-level race than a federal contest.) In the worst case scenario, they will be left running against Specter - but a diminished Specter who has had to spent a year moving to the right (thus antagonizing moderates), hitting on Toomey (thus antagonizing conservatives) and emptying campaign coffers.

Needless to say, Toomey’s decision will weigh heavily on the minds of Democratic politicians who are currently mulling a Senate run. Rep. Patrick Murphy, Rep. Allyson Schwarz and Auditor Jack Wagner are far more likely to jump in the race now that they know Specter will first have to beat back a challenge from the right.

Conservatives, second: Specter has always earned the enmity of the Republican base. If anything, his vote against Robert Bork’s appointment to the Supreme Court cemented the rift. Toomey’s candidacy guarantees conservatives will have a powerful outlet for their anger next year. (Another potential but second-tier candidate, businessman Glen Meakem, announced earlier this week he would not challenge Specter.)

Specter and Toomey already faced off in 2004, and the incumbent survived by less than 2%. Next year, circumstances should be even more favorable to Toomey than they were five years ago.

The Republican caucus has lost most of its moderate members (in either chamber of Congress), and the stimulus debate showed the isolation of Specter’s position. With this isolation has come a different relationship with the Republican establishment. In 2004, the GOP needed congressmen like Specter to protect its ranks. Then-President George W. Bush and then-Senator Rick Santorum rallied to Specter’s side despite vast ideological differences; conservative activists were incensed, but Bush’s and Santorum’s overwhelming popularity among the Republican base helped carry the incumbent across the finish line.

Today, Bush and Santorum are gone, an ideological civil war is brewing within the GOP, and RNC Chairman Michael Steele has threatened to withhold party support from the Republican Senators who voted for the stimulus. The Pennsylvania Republican Party’s chairman added that the state GOP might not back the five-term incumbent.

Not only is Specter more exposed as there are very few other moderates to cover him, but there does not seem to be any prominent Republican who is in a position to carry him across the finish line.

As for Toomey, he is undoubtedly one of the strongest primary challengers any incumbent could face. He is after all the president of Club for Growth, an organization that is solely devoted to getting conservatives to win contested primaries - and they have a fair amount of success over the past few cycles. Toomey has the sort of political network a candidate can only dream of, and this primary will be so high-profile that every conservative in the country will want to help defeat the Senator. If anything, Toomey’s ability to come within 9,000 votes of Specter in 2004 will make donors that much more willing to take their chance on him.

Last, but certainly not least, Specter will be hurt by the transformation of Pennsylvania’s GOP electorate. The state has closed primary rules, which means that only registered Republicans can participate in the party primary. That in itself is a problem for Specter, who would get a lot of support from independent voters if they were allowed to participate in the contest. But further complicating the matter is the fact that large numbers of moderate Republicans have dropped their party affiliation over the past four years and are now independent. The pool of potential primary voters is more conservative than it was in 2004.

Whatever the fate of Toomey’s challenge, conservatives are at least likely to benefit from Specter’s necessary response to this emerging threat. If he wants to survive the primary, the Senator will need to sharply move to the right over the next year. That makes him far less likely to cross party lines to help Democrats reach 60 voters, as he did on the stimulus bill.

In particular, it is difficult to imagine Specter maintain his support for the Employee Free Choice Act. (The Senator supported card-checks in a Senate vote in 2007.) Defeating card-checks is currently the conservative priority, and another vote in favor of EFCA could be enough to seal Speter’s fate in the primary.

Alternatively, Specter could realize how much he will have to move to the right to win the GOP primary and decide to run as an independent or join Democrats instead. After all, Specter could find himself at home across the aisle, given that some Demoratic Senators look to be far less committed to fighting the GOP than to undermining liberals. Yet, I find such a scenario to be very unlikely. Specter is not that moderate on many issues, and he has always been a partisan Republican despite taking fire from conservatives for two decades.