Campaign Diaries

The first Republican candidate has jumped in Oklahoma’s gubernatorial race: Rep. Mary Fallin announced yesterday that she would seek to replace Democratic Governor Brad Henry, who is term-limited out of office.

Oklahoma is one of the reddest states in the country, and one of the only states in which John McCain improved George W. Bush’s performance. That makes this seat one of the Democrats’ most endangered governorships, but they were hoping to benefit from their somewhat surprising success at the local level: they currently hold every single non-federal statewide position!

That allowed Democrats to hope that the GOP would have to settle on a little-experienced nominee, or one who would face general electability problems. Yet, Fallin is the only Republican with statewide experience that was mentioned as a possible candidate. Before moving to the House in the 2006 cycle, she served as Lieutenant Governor from 1995 to 2007, thus becoming one of the state’s top Republican officials.

The general election should be competitive, as two prominent Democrats announced that they were running for Governor over the past few weeks: Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins and Attorney General Drew Edmondson. Askins served three terms as a state representative before winning the lieutenant governor race when Fallin retired to run for the House; but Edmonson has a much lengthier tenure, as he has been the state’s Attorney General since 1994. That means that he has already won 4 statewide elections.

Askins and Edmonson’s seats are both up in 2010. That they chose to run for Governor means that the state’s top three statewide positions - all held by Democrats - will be open in 2010. Democrats’ exceptionally strong results in 2006 put them in a very difficult position now, and Republicans have a chance to regain their footing in the state and wipe out the Democrats’ bench in a single cycle. It will be interesting to see whether Democrats can save any of their seats.

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Fallin’s gubernatorial run also means that her House seat will be open for the taking in 2010. This is the 9th open seat of the cycle (view full list), and the sixth held by Republicans.

Yet, none of these GOP-held open seats are in competitive territory. OK-05 is a staunchly conservative district, so there is no reason for Republicans to panic about defending this open seat. George W. Bush triumphed 64% to 36%, and John McCain held off Obama 59% to 41%.

Yet, some Democrats are taking comfort in these numbers: OK-05 is the only Oklahoma district in which Obama improved on Kerry’s performance, and he did so by a significant boost of 10%. OK-05 is also the only state district in which McCain received less than 60%. Does this suggest that the district is more receptive to electing a Democrat than other parts of the state?

Better still, Democrats have something resembling a bench: The district sends four Democrats to the state Senate. One of them is Andrew Rice, a 35-year old who made a name for himself by challenging Senator Inhofe in the 2008 cycle. Rice was demolished by a series of vicious ads that questioned his belonging in Oklahoma (some suggested that Inhofe was trying to imply that Rice was gay), but he was noticed by the netroots. The other state Senators are Minority Leader Charlie Laster, Debbie Leftwich and Constance Johnson. Another possible Democratic candidate is Oklahoma County District Attorney David Prater.

Yet, given how difficult it is for a Democrat to win a federal race in such red territory, the DCCC is sure to have difficulty recruiting any of these candidates. Democratic officials who have to run for re-election for their current seat in 2010 are particularly unlikely to run for the House since they would have to give up their job to do so.

Indeed, one reason Rice chose to run for Senate in 2008 was that he was not up for re-election in the state Senate until 2010; he could seek a promotion without giving up his seat. He does not have that luxury this year, and that could be enough to keep him away from the OK-05 race. Johnson, Prater and Leftwich are all in the same position: they have to run for re-election in 2010. That leaves us with Laster, whose seat is not up until 2012, so he could run for Congress without risking his job.

By contrast, potential Republican candidates are more likely to take a risk to run in OK-05, though the district is conservative enough that we should expect a crowded GOP primary. (That could help Democrats if they manage to find a candidate of their own.)