Campaign Diaries

Ohio’s Democratic primary gets crowded

After Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, a third Democrat has jumped in Ohio’s Senate race: state Rep. Tyrone Yates has entered the race. Yates, who represents a Cincinnati district, is term-limited out of his office in 2010; that might explain why he is willing to challenge two statewide officials.

Yates undoubtedly starts as the underdog but he should not be underestimated. His political resume goes beyond his work in the state legislature: he served as vice-major of Cincinnati and as the assistant state Attorney General. He has good relationships with the state’s Democratic establishment, and that will complicate the early jostling between Fisher and Brunner.

Furthermore, two factors could give Yates an opening. The first is that Brunner and Fisher are likely to direct their fire to each other; if their opposition gets heated, other candidates could sneak by. The second is that Yates is an African-American; that gives him a natural constituency, but it also could enable him to differentiate himself in a field whose candidates have few obvious ideological differences. However, another African-American Democrat is considering a run: Cuyahoga County Commissioner Peter Lawson Jones.

Burr still has no challenger

Richard Burr might be one of the Senate’s most endangered incumbents, but the North Carolina Senator has yet to draw a challenger. This week, one of the potential Democratic candidates - former Treasurer Richard Moore - strongly suggested that he would not jump in the race. “We’ve just finished one election cycle, and I don’t have any plans right now,” he said. “You know, you never say never, but I don’t have any plans right now.”

Last year, Moore lost a heated gubernatorial primary against now-Governor Beverly Perdue; many Democrats wondered why Moore would not challenge Elizabeth Dole instead, worrying Democrats were wasting two of their top candidates on the same race. Of course, Kay Hagan ended up proving a far stronger candidate than people expected.

With Moore’s departure, all eyes are on Attorney General Roy Cooper, who is known to be considering the race and who would be a strong contender (a recent poll shows him leading Burr). Another potential candidate is Rep. Heath Shuler, one of the House’s most conservative Democrats. Shuler’s opposition to the stimulus could be an indication that he is leaning towards staying in the House, as his vote on the issue could be used against him in the stimulus.

No Smith-Sununu rematch

In 2002, New Hampshire Senator Bob Smith was defeated in the Republican primary by then-Rep. John Sununu, who went on to win the general election. Sununu, who lost his re-election race last year, is now mulling a run for Judd Gregg’s seat - and we learned a few days ago that Smith was considering moving back to New Hampshire to jump in the race as well, mostly to spite Sununu!

Democrats were obviously salivating at the prospect of a Smith-Sununu rematch, which would cause havoc for the GOP, lead to a confusing primary and bruise the eventual nominee (presumably Sununu). We still have not heard about Sununu’s plans, but Smith ruled out the possibility of a move. “I have decided to remain in Florida where I am now a resident and will under no circumstances be a candidate for any office in New Hampshire,” he said. Interestingly, Smith is also said to be considering a Senate run in Florida.

Another Republican mulling run against Vitter

A few days ago, Tony Perkins confirmed that he was considering challenging Senator David Vitter in Louisiana’s GOP primary. We now get word that another Republican is mulling a run against the incumbent: former Rep. John Cooksey, who represented the heavily conservative LA-05 from 1996 to 2002, is said to be very interested in the race - and is even considering dumping up to $200,000 of his own money in the race. (That would not necesasrily get him very far for challenging an incumbent.)

Cooksey ran for Senate in 2002, when his campaign was derailed by racist comments against Arabs. If Cooksey managed to offend people enough to have his campaign crash in the post 9/11 context, it remains to be seen how credible a campaign he can mount.