Every day is bringing some news about the prospect of bruising Republican primaries to be played out against the backdrop of the GOP’s growing ideological wars.
Pennsylvania
Two days ago, Michael Steele warned that the RNC could back a primary challenge to the three Republican Senators who voted for the stimulus plan - a threat that was clearly targeted at Pennsylvania’s Arlen Specter. Steele had said that he would talk to state Republicans, and that the decision would ultimately be in the hands of Pennsylvania’s GOP.
Well, it did not take long for us to hear from Pennsylvania’s Republican Committee Chairman, Robert Gleason Jr. While Gleason refrained from criticizing Specter, he did leave the door open to the party withholding its support. “Of course, anything is a possibility,” he said. “It is up to the committeemen and committeewomen [next February].” And Gleason went on. “I really can’t make that call right now. That is kind of a what-if question,” he explained. “If he is a candidate, we will cross that bridge when we get there.”
That might seem like a reasonable answer, but don’t forget that Specter is a five-term incumbent and one of the most towering figures of the Senate. A politician like him is supposed to be the de facto leader of his state party, not a pariah that is held at arm’s length.
What is truly remarkable about Steele and Gleason’s comments (and this is something many of you commented on in the post about Steele) is that Specter is not that moderate. He undoubtedly crosses party lines more often than most other Republicans, but his position as one of the most visible Senate moderates is due to the number of centrist GOP Senators who lost re-election over the past decade. Specter is one of the last remaining specimens of the Northeastern Republican, he is a partisan GOPer, and it is unthinkable to imagine him switching parties (unlike, say, Chaffee, Snowe or even McCain).
Louisiana
David Vitter is a reliable conservative, but his involvment with the D.C. Madam’s prostitution ring endangers him, not only in the general election but also in the GOP primary. Vitter’s opponents are trying to recruit a porn star to run against him in the primary and keep the D.C. Madam issue alive, but that alone would not be enough for the Senator to lose the race. Is any credible Republican willing to challenge him?
Secretary of State Jay Dardenne is mentioned as a possible contender, but the first signals of a primary challenge came from Tony Perkins, the head of the Family Research Council. “I will say this,” Perkins told Politico yesterday, “I have people in Louisiana encouraging me to consider it.” And he went on to take a hit at the Senator: “Can people feel a sense of trust in him to publicly stand with him and support him and help him?”
Perkins is now a full-time activist, but he has held public office before: He served as a state representative from 1996 to 2004, and he ran in Louisiana’s open primary for the 2002 Senate race (he received 10%). He could mount a credible Senate run, particularly if he manages to bring to the fore Vitter’s scandal. A Perkins-Vitter primary would undoubtedly test the power of social conservative activists since Perkins is one of that constituency’s leaders and since the primary would be fought over issues of sexual indiscretion.
It is hard to know how strong Perkins would be in a general election; Louisiana is conservative enough for him to have a chance, but his nomination would undoubtedly give Democrats a big opening to picking-up the seat (provided they have fielded a good candidate of their own).
Missouri
Democrats are clearly enjoying playing on the GOP’s rift, and I will close this post with the priceless statement released by the campaign of Democrat Robin Carnahan in response to Roy Blunt’s request that the two start meeting in candidate forums:
I was quite surprised to receive a voicemail message earlier today from Rich Chrismer of Congressman Blunt’s campaign, who expressed a desire to discuss a plan for candidate forums. Assuming he had the wrong number, I returned his call and left him a message in which I offered to provide him with a telephone number for Sarah Steelman.
No doubt Carnahan would love to have Steelman and Blunt talk.
Specter should say “adios” to the GOP and join our party. I’ll take him. Steele is an idiot, nothing more than a puppet for the right-wingers of the GOP.
I agree it is unlikely Specter would change parties; but, as i stated in an earlier post, he might consider running as an independent. He is a proud and stubborn man and if the Republican party was stupid enough to primary him he could very well follow the path of Joe Lieberman in Connectuct.
Rather than pushing him back in line with other Republicans; this pressure, by Steele and Gleason, could make him want to buck the party even more in upcoming votes.
I honestly think that these threats are empty. Even though Specter has had trouble with conservatives in the past, he is the most senior Republican from the state and his semi-moderate voting record fits Pennsylvania well.
The most likely primary challenge–now that Pat Toomey has opted out–will come from businessman Glen Meakem. I don’t know that Meakem has enough name recognition or appeal to take down a guy like Specter, who is respected in the state by pretty much everyone except for the right wing.
Like we saw with Jim Bunning in Kentucky, it is highly unlikely that the Republican Party will NOT support any of their incumbents–no matter their vulnerability or voting record. This is a bluff from Steele and Gleason to try and get Specter to vote with the party more in the Senate.
And as for switching parties, there’s no chance that Specter would leave the Republican Party after all these years. Unlike Lieberman, who benefited from having virtually no Republican Party in his state, Specter would be challenged from the right and the left if he ran as an Independent. He’s a smart politician, and he would not put himself at risk of losing financial and institutional party support.
I’d be surprised if Specter left the GOP, too. I just think Steele’s comments were beyond stupid…they were disrespectful to Specter. Of course, the GOP love to say they are the party of moral value, but “respect” in their book is not a moral value.
Adam: I think the only time Specter would ever consider running as an independent was if he lost in a primary. If that were to happen I think he would have a chance of winning. He would get a lot of moderate support and it would be a close three way race unless the Democrats ran a very strong candidate.