Campaign Diaries

On Friday, Rep. Mike Rogers denied Democrats a shot at an open seat in a swing district. The Michigan Republican was mentioned as a potential gubernatorial candidate, but he indicated that he would stay in the House. “I have always thought it is far more important to focus on the jobs of the people I serve, rather than on my own job,” he said.

This is an unmitigated boost to Republicans: Not only is it a huge relief for them at the House level, but it is not a loss in regards to the gubernatorial election.

Michigan’s Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm is barred from seeking a third term due to the state’s term limit laws, and the open race is one of the most crowded in the country: Seventeen potential contenders are listed on my recruitment page, and the GOP is sure to field a credible candidate. Two statewide office-holders (Attorney General Mike Cox and Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land) have already formed explanatory committees, and still more Republican congressmen (Reps. Peter Hoekstra and Candice Miller) are said to be mulling runs.

Rogers’ entry would only have muddied the GOP’s gubernatorial field further, and it would have done so at the expense of House Republicans. Rogers’s MI-08 is a swing district and it would become one of the DCCC’s top pick-up opportunities if Rogers had retired.

For one, the district was held by Democrat Debbie Stabenow until Rogers narrowly won the open seat race in 2000. The presidential election’s results confirm the district’s swing nature: George W. Bush won a majority of the district in both 2000 and 2004 (by 4% and 9%, respectively) but Barack Obama captured a decisive 53% to 46% victory last November. That’s a Democratic swing of 16% - far more than the national average of 10%.

With Rogers running for re-election, Democrats face tougher odds. They have failed to field a credible challenger against Rogers over the past four cycle; for instance, the incumbent sailed to a 17% victory last November, despite the GOP’s significant setbacks in the Wolverine State. Could Obama’s strong 2008 numbers be enough for the DCCC to pay attention to MI-08 and make sure to recruit a strong candidate? A number of candidates could make this an interesting race, including Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, state Senator Gretchen Whitimer or state Rep. Mark Meadows.

And while we are on the topic of Michigan’s governorship, a word about continued speculation that Granholm could be tapped to Obama’s Cabinet. She has been mentioned as a top contender for a number of positions over the past few months, only to be passed over repeatedly. Tom Dashle and Judd Gregg’s withdrawal have opened two new positions. Kathleen Sebelius is closing in on HHS Secretary, but Granholm could still be picked; she could also become Obama’s third pick as Commerce Secretary.

If such a scenario were to occur, Lieutenant Governor John Cherry, a Democrat, would replace Granholm. Cherry has already filed paperwork to run in 2010, and he would be a stronger candidate if he were to run as the sitting Governor. Sure, there is an argument to be made that Cherry could be dragged down by Michigan’s economic woes if he were the incumbent, but does his current job not already guarantee that he will be dragged down? Lieutenant Governors are encumbered by the pitfalls of incumbency - representing the status quo is never good in times of crisis - without many of its benefits.