Campaign Diaries

An unexpected twist in MO-Sen?

Over the past month, Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan has received a lot of good news. Republican Senator Kit Bond announced his retirement, allowing Carnahan to run for an open Senate seat; Jim Talent, arguably the GOP’s strongest contender, announced he would not run; Republicans are still heading towards a bruising  primary; and it looked like no one would challenge Carnahan’s claim to the Democratic nomination.

Yet, we are now hearing reports that Rep. William Lacy Clay is considering jumping in the Senate race as well. Clay, an African-American lawmaker first elected in 2000, is the chairman of the House Information Policy, Census and National Archives Subcommittee. He is a proud progressive and a fiercely anti-war voice. (Clay voted against the 2002 Iraq War Resolution.)

Clay’s comments are the first sign that Democrats could hold as competitive a primary as Republicans. Carnahan is a member of one of Missouri’s biggest political dynasties, and for that fact alone she would be the clear favorite in a contested primary. But there is no doubt that Clay could mount a competitive run. If anything, St. Louis-based MO-01 is by far the most Democratic of the state’s nine districts, meaning that Clay is already well known by a significant share of the state’s Democratic primary voters.

Amann launches Connecticut campaign

Meanwhile, in Connecticut, former House Speaker James Amann launched his gubernatorial campaign on Wednesday. Amann had already all but jumped in at the end of 2008, so his latest more public move was not surprising. Amann faces two uphill races. He is undoubtedly less known than the two other Democratic candidates (Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz and Stamford Mayor Dannel P. Malloy); even if he were to emerge the victor, Republican Governor Jodi Rell is heavily favored to win another term: A Quinnipiac poll released this week shows Rell beating Amann by 40%!

Since this is Connecticut - a state in which Democrats are expected to at least be competitive - it is still worth taking a closer look to Amann, who served in the state’s General Assembly for 18 years and served as the speaker for four years. Yet, Amann is as conservative a candidate as Democrats could field in a blue state like Connecticut. For instance, Amann voted against the civil union bill that passed the legislature a few years ago. (Gay marriage has since been legalized in Connecticut.) In fact, Amann expects to campaign on his centrist credentials. Bysiewicz and Mallow will hopefully not divide the liberal/mainstream Democratic vote enough to allow Amann to move on with narrow plurality.

Gubernatorial shorts: Wolf out in PA, Villaraigosa drops hints in CA

One of the many Pennsylvania Democrats mulling a gubernatorial run has bowed out of the race. Citing the fact that his family business needed him in this time of economic downturn, former Secretary of Revenue Tom Wolf announced he would not seek the office in 2010. He would have been an important player in the primary because he would have been able to tap in his personal fortune. Democrats have little to worry about: There are many Democrats left (see my recruitment page).

Meanwhile, a number of California Democrats are busy laying the groundwork for their gubernatorial candidacies, but Los Angeles’s Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa has to wait to win his re-election race this spring before starting to openly plan for a statewide run. Yet, in a recent interview with the AP, Villaraigosa certainly confirmed everyone’s suspicions. “I’m not going to make a promise I can’t keep,” he responded when asked whether he would commit to serving a full mayoral term.