Campaign Diaries

Yesterday, Public Policy Polling released the first poll of New Hampshire’s Senate race conducted since Barack Obama tapped Judd Gregg to be his Commerce Secretary. All four match-ups tested by PPP are within the margin of error:

• Rep. Paul Hodes leads former Senator John Sununu 46% to 44%; against former Rep. Charlie Bass, he is ahead 40% to 37%.
• Rep. Carol Shea-Porter trails both Republicans by 1% (46% to 45% against Sununu, 43% to 42% against Bass).

These numbers suggest that we are in for a wild ride in the Granite State, but they are also better news for Democrats. For one, Hodes is the only candidate to have already jumped in the race. While Sununu and Bass are the GOP’s most credible potential candidates but there is little to suggest that either will jump in the race; in fact, Bass has acknowledged that he is looking at the possibility of jumping in the race for NH-02 open seat.

How competitive Republicans can stay in this race will depend on the candidates they manage to recruit, and this will be the trickiest part of the race for the GOP to maneuver. (Former Governor Steve Merrill would be an intriguing prospect, and it would have been useful to see how he stacked up against Hodes. He did, after all, leave office in 1996.) Furthermore, what does it say about the state of play that someone as well-known as Sununu cannot muster a significant lead against either of the state’s representatives - both of whom only represent half of the state?

If anything, the survey suggests Sununu could be a weaker candidate than other Republicans: Not only did he lose his re-election race by double-digits a few months ago, but his numbers are identical to those of Bass, who has been out of office for three years and whose name recognition is far lower. Sununu might be the candidate Republicans are dreaming to recruit, but it looks like many New Hampshire voters have made up their mind that they do not want him in the Senate.

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In Pennsylvania, meanwhile, a Quinnipiac poll found some fascinating numbers about Republican Senator Arlen Specter:

• Specter enjoys a solid approval rating, with 56% approving of the job he is doing and 30% disapproving. Yet, Democrats are far more likely to approve of his performance (62% to 26%) than Republicans (55% to 33%) and independents (49% to 35%).

• A similar pattern holds when respondents are asked whether Specter deserve to be re-election. 43% say he does not, and 40% say he does. Republicans are split evenly, 42% to 42%, numbers that are almost identical to the margin among Democrats (42% no, 41% yes). Independents are far more critical (45% no, 36% yes).

Heading into his 2010 re-election race, Specter is in a very unusual position. The overall numbers suggest he is vulnerable to a Democratic challenge; but the results reveal Specter’s strength when they are broken down by partisan affiliation.

Republicans are down on their Senator because of his centrism - and that is not going to throw them in the arms of the Democratic nominee in the general election. A fair number could pass on the race, but that will be compensated by the high number of registered Democrats who like Specter and want him to win another term. Unless these voters are given a very good reason to vote against Specter (and the fact that the Republican Senator is currently winning accolades from Senate Democrats will certainly not help erode his popularity among Pennsylvania’s Democratic voters), Specter is once again in a position to draw votes from both parties and win another term.

Just as in 2004, Specter’s biggest vulnerability could come in the Republican primary - and this poll confirms that the GOP base does not trust him. His strongest potential opponent has reportedly ruled out a Senate run, but could other credible opponents emerge? Via Senate Guru, we learn that businessman Glen Meakem is considering a challenge to Specter. If Meakem self-funds his campaign and if he gains support from national conservative groups (starting with Club for Growth, of course), he could be a credible threat.