Campaign Diaries

My last two posts were already devoted to congressional recruitment; but buzz has build up around many more politicians this week, so this is a quick run-around of some of what is being said!

Fisher takes first step in Ohio

Ohio’s Democratic field is starting to look a bit more clear. As I wrote last week, the state’s establishment is being surprisingly blunt in siding with Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner - confirming (as many of us suspected) that Fisher harbors clear senatorial ambitions.

In case any one had any doubt, Fisher just filed the paperwork to form an explanatory committee. This does not mean that he is running for sure - and a final decision and announcement is not expected until later this spring or perhaps even this summer - but Fisher’s decision to come public before any other Democrat could be enough to keep most of his party rivals away from the Senate race. (Brunner is quite obviously still interested in jumping in, but Rep. Tim Ryan is now believed to be leaning towards sitting it out.)

Madia will not seek a rematch in MN-03

Last November, Barack Obama won 52% of the vote in MN-03 but Democrats failed to pick-up the open House seat. Erik Paulsen’s 7% victory against Ashwin Madia was one of the GOP’s biggest saves of the night. One explanation for Paulsen’s victory highlights the fact that Minnesota Republicans resisted the blue wave better than those in other states. But for Madia to under-perform so significantly suggests there was something specific about MN-03.

For one, the Democrat’s Indian heritage was used against him when the GOP started playing dirty tricks and using loaded expressions to describe his race. Second, Madia was probably not the best candidate Democrats could have found in this district. Some criticized him for running too timid and too centrist a campaign; also, he lacked the resume to be an effective candidate (this is something we saw across the country in 2006 and 2008: veterans who ran for office attracted a lot of early buzz but many scored disappointing results).

Whatever you think of Madia’s 2008 campaign will matter little going forward: Despite speculation that Madia might look for a rematch against Paulsen, he announced that he will not be back in 2010. Given that he represents a district won by Obama, however, Paulsen is sure to remain a top DCCC target.

Colorado, Missouri: Speculation builds

Missouri’s press is increasingly reporting that former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman has decided to run for Senate in 2010, even tough a formal announcement will not come soon, Steelman is already preparing . I have had the opportunity to discuss the consequences of such a run before (most recently here). Note that there has been very little noise about former Sen. Jim Talent’s plans, despite his entourage’s insistence that he was looking to jump in in the days that followed Kit Bond’s retirement announcement.

In Colorado, Republicans are still desperately looking for a candidate to run against Governor Bill Ritter and Senator Michael Bennet. Both are vulnerable - especially the latter - but no GOPer is stepping forward. In fact, the most prominent are pulling their name from consideration! Last week, former Rep. Bob Beauprez gave the GOP some hope as he acknowledged that he was looking into both races very closely; he did add, however, that he would not come to a decision before this “summer or fall,” so Colorado’s fields will not come into focus before many more months.