Campaign Diaries

Few people are paying attention to Connecticut’s Senate race, but Chris Dodd looks like he has reason to worry.

Yesterday, NRSC Chairman John Cornyn unexpectedly mentioned former Rep. Rob Simmons as a potential Republican candidate, with Roll Call revealing that Simmons and Cornyn have already held a meeting to discuss the potential. After two cycles in which Senate Republicans went through pure hell, we are certainly not used to the possibility that the NRSC might succeed in putting safe Democratic seats in play. But a Simmons comeback would represent the kind of recruitment coup the GOP needs to regain some footing.

Sure, the former representative lost a House race in 2006, but he did so in a blue district that Kerry won by 10% in 2004 and Obama by 19% last fall; it took the blue tsunami of 2006 for Democrats to unseat Simmons - and even then, he lost by less than 100 votes! In other words, Simmons is the type of Republican who can be competitive in Democratic territory and pull off a win if circumstances favor him.

And this is where Democrats might have reason to be concerned. For one, 2010 will be a midterm test for a Democratic White House and a Democratic Congress; we do not know what the national mood and the economic conjecture will be yet, but it seems certain that Democratic incumbents will not be protected by an impenetrable immunity as they were in 2006 and 2008. And while Connecticut is undeniably blue, it is not as staunchly Democratic as other New England states. That popular Republican Governor Jodi Rell will lead the state’s GOP ticket will only increase Simmons’s prospects (see below for a discussion of Rell).

Second, Chris Dodd is looking far more vulnerable than expected. Much of this has to do with last June’s revelations that Dodd had benefited from below-market mortgage rates; the controversy caused Dodd to head out of the Democratic veepstakes - but the issue is still very much alive. A just-released Quinnipiac poll finds that only 24% of state voters say they are satisfied with Dodd’s explanation, while 54% say they are dissatisfied. Worse still, 56% say they are less likely to vote for him.

Overall, the Quinnipiac poll finds worrisome numbers for Dodd: 41% approve of his performance, versus 48% who disapprove (that’s lower than Lieberman’s). Among independents, the margin is 36% to 51%. And 51% of respondents say they will definitely or probably not vote for Dodd in 2010. For an incumbent as entrenched and well-known as Dodd, those numbers leave no doubt that he could be vulnerable to a credible Republican candidate.

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At least, Democrats can look forward to the 2012 cycle, where Lieberman is up for re-election. Sure, the Senator’s approval rating is higher than Dodd’s (!), with 45% approving of his performance while 48% disapprove (still in the Quinnipiac poll). But Lieberman has no more natural constituency, with most of his support coming from the GOP: 75% of Repulicans approve of his performance, while 70% of Democrats disapprove!

Quinnipiac tested a general election match-up between Joe Lieberman (running as an independent) and very popular Attorney General Richard Blumental (whose approval rating is a stunning 79% to 12%). The results are disastrous for the incumbent, who is crushed 58% to 30%. Among Democrats, Blumenthal leads 83% to 9%; among independents, 55% to 29%; only Republicans vote for Joe, 67% to 23%.

The bad news for Lieberman is that the poll does not even include a Republican nominee. While the GOP could take the same path as 2006 and only field a third-tier contender, their candidate would still be expected to get somewhere in the high single-digits - and that support would come from Lieberman voters. The second problem is that Lieberman has alienated the state’s Democratic voters to such an extent that he is likely to lose it by a bigger margin than Simmons would against Dodd!

And let us not even talk about the possibility of Lieberman running in the Democratic primary. There might be a long time before 2012, but these numbers leave no doubt that the Senator would be crushed.

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Finally, the Quinnipiac poll tests Republican Governor Jodi Rell, whose re-election is listed as “likely” in my new gubernatorial rankings. The survey suggests that Rell’s popularity has not decreased over the past three years, and she could be on her way to as triumphant a victory as in 2006:

• An impressive 75% of respondents (including 67% of Democrats) approve of Rell’s performance.

• She beats all three potential Democrats by huge margins: 58% to 26% against Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, 53% to 32% against Susan Bysiewicz, and 61% to 21% and state Rep. Jim Amman.

• In the Democratic primary, Bysiewicz crushes Malloy 44% to 12%, with 4% for Amman.

It’s understandable that Connecticut Democrats are looking forward to 2012, but they have a lot of work to do in 2010 before they can think of taking on Lieberman.