Campaign Diaries

We thought we were done with Cabinet drama when Barack Obama selected Judd Gregg as his Commerce Secretary, but Tom Daschle’s withdrawal from the HHS Department opened up yet another chapter.

Let’s start by saying that it is hard to be that surprised - or that upset - that Daschle’s nomination was derailed given his behavior ever since he left the Senate, the millions he made as a lobbyist without officially being one, and this sort of ethical controversies. Current and former office holders should have a minimal amount of ethical decency if they want to be given the benefit of the doubt when tax errors are discovered.

To succeed Daschle, eight names are most often mentioned: former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen, Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm, Oregon Senator Ron Wyden, Ohio Governor Ted Strickland, Connecticut Rep. Rosa DeLauro and Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell. (Also mentioned was former Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber, but he declared that he was not interested earlier this week.)

The Bredesen concern

Attracting the most buzz is Bredesen, perhaps because his selection would provoke a controversy that would make Gregg look like a consensual pick. And that would be appropriate: It is easy to dismiss the Commerce Department as an inconsequential post, but the HHS Secretary will be in charge of health care reform. For Obama to select a conservative Democrat whose methods health care advocates have long denounced would be an inexplicable act of provocation towards his base and towards liberal activists that regard health care as one of the most important issues of the day.

Bredesen first made his fortune in the health care industry as he founded HealthAmerica, a commercial HMO, in the 1980s. Later, as Governor, he found himself at the head of Tennessee’s Medicaid program, TennCare. He operated some dramatic cutbacks, kicking more than 300,000 low-income adults out of the program. Bredesen’s defenders argue that he had no other choice given the state’s budgetary situation, but the fact is that the Governor’s record has more to do with saving money by cutting health coverage rather than with what a Democratic Administration’s HHS Secretary should be concerned with - expanding health care towards universality in an way that is economically viable.

Making matters worse is the extensive donations Bredesen has received from the health care industry, as well as the fact (reported by Politico) that BlueCross BlueShield of Tennessee donated $150,000 to the renovation of the Governor’s Mansion. An export on the issue of health care, Jonathan Cohn adds: “He is typical of the top figures in the health industry I’ve met over the years: Self-made entrepreneurs a bit too convinced of their own brilliance, completely unaware that the strategies for making private insurers profitable don’t help–and often hurt–the sicker, poorer people whom insurance should ideally protect.”

On the other hand, it is not surprising to see Obama consider someone like Bredesen given his campaign rhetoric. You might remember that health care is the issue on which he positioned himself the most to the center for much of the campaign, and the priorities he outlined during 2008 raise questions as to how much Obama intends to privilege the question of increasing access and enrollment. During the general election, Obama aired an ad attacking “government-run health care” as a radical solution he would stay away from. During the Democratic primaries, he ran to Hillary’s right on the issue, attracting Paul Krugman’s enmity and going as far as to send Democratic voters a truly stunning mailer channeling the Right’s “Harry and Louise attacks” from 1993:

Consequences down-the-ballot

Also fascinating is that the selection of most of the names I listed above would create major headaches for down-the-ballot Democrats. Next in line in both Pennsylvania and Tennessee are Republican Lieutenant Governors, and for either to become Governor would obviously be a tremendous boost for the GOP’s 2010 prospects.

In Ohio, Strickland’s successor Lee Fisher would be a Democrat, but Strickland is not term-limited next year; moving him to Washington would thus complicate Democratic hopes to hold on to the Governor’s Mansion, and it would also remove Fisher from the Senate race where many consider him to be the favorite to win the nomination. Selecting Sebelius would remove the Democrats’ only credible contender in Kansas’s Senate race and guarantee that the seat remain in GOP hands. For Wyden to retire from the Senate would spark a springtime special election, decrease the Democratic majority by one in the short term and possibly cost Democrats a seat in the long term.

Remain Howard Dean, Rosa DeLauro (whose district is heavily blue) and Jennifer Granholm, who would be succeeded by Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Cherry. Michigan’s open gubernatorial race will be one of the toughest for Democrats to defend, and for Cherry to run as an incumbent would be a huge boost.