Campaign Diaries

Given how much pressure GOP leaders are putting on Kentucky Senator Jim Bunning to push him into retirement, we have come to think that Bunning would be a nightmarish candidate who could never muster a competitive race - let alone a victory. In fact, our expectations for Bunning are so low that a new Research 2000 poll showing him under 50% and leading his Democratic rivals by 4% looks like good news for the Senator!

The poll tests eight match-ups, four testing Senator Jim Bunning and four testing Secretary of State Trey Grayson, the probable Republican nominee if Bunning retires. All eight match-ups are within the 4% margin of error:

• Bunning leads 45% to 42% against Rep. Ben Chandler, 46% to 42% against Attorney General Jack Conway and Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo, and 45% to 41% against Treasurer Crit Luallen.

• Grayson is tied at 42% with Chandler and Luallen; he leads 42% to 41% against Conway and 43% to 42% against Mongiardo.

This poll is a testament to Kentucky’s clear conservative leanings. Bunning is wildly disliked (41% have a favorable opinion of their Senator, while 47% have an unfavorable opinion), and the four Democrats are not only well-known, but they also enjoy far high favorability ratings: Chandler stands at 52-28, Luallen at 53-25 and Conway at 48-28. Mongiardo’s ratings is less stellar, but it remains positive (50-40).That the very same poll shows Bunning holding on to narrow leads certainly suggests that Kentucky voters will need to be convinced to back a Democrat - even if their other choice is Jim Bunning.

That said, the poll remains positive news for Democrats. Bunning is unpopular, he is clearly under the vulnerability threshold of 50% and this poll confirms that he is the most endangered incumbent of the 2010 cycle. Furthermore, polls showing that Bunning is electable will make it much harder for Republican leaders to convince him to leave. How can they make him understand that his presence on the ballot endangers their hold on the seat when Bunning can point to polls in which he is in a stronger position?

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Last time we checked in Ohio’s gubernatorial race, Ted Strickland held a 45% to 39% lead against former Rep. John Kasich in a PPP match-up with a lot of undecided voters. Quinnipiac’s new survey finds better news for Ohio’s Democratic Governor:

• Strickland’s approval rating is very strong (63% approve, versus 25%), as is his favorability rating (60% to 19%).

• Logically, Strickland dominates his two tested match-ups: He demolishes Kasich 56% to 26% and former Senator Mike DeWine 54% to 32%. The margins are even greater among independents; for instance, Strickland crushes DeWine 55% to 26% among that group.

These margins are more in line with what we have come to expect from Strickland. He did, after all, triumph in the 2006 open seat, beating his Republican opponent 60% to 39%. That type of margin indicates a level of popularity that would not suggest a rocky road to re-election.

Interestingly, we got two tidbits of news about Ohio politicians today. First, Strickland’s name is being mentioned as a possible HHS Secretary by the AP. That would obviously shuffle things up in Ohio politics - not only for the gubernatorial race but also in the senatorial election: Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher, a possible Senate candidate, would then become Governor and presumably run for a full term in 2010.

Second, former Senator Mike DeWine, who lost by double-digits to now-Senator Sherrod Brown in 2006, announced today that he will run for statewide office in 2010 - though he has not decided which race he will choose (Senate, Governor, Attorney General). That in itself is interesting information, as most people assumed that he would rule out a senatorial run after Rob Portman announced his candidacy. Whatever DeWine decides, this announcement makes it less likely the GOP will succeed to clear the primary fields for Portman and Kasisch.