Campaign Diaries

I somehow managed to miss the poll of Colorado’s gubernatorial race Public Policy Polling released last week. (PPP also released a senatorial poll, which I blogged about here.) Governor Bill Ritter is running for re-election, and while he has no declared opponent, a number of Republicans are considering challenging him. PPP tested two of them:

• Against former Rep. Bob Beauprez, Ritter is ahead 46% to 40%. This would be a rematch of the 2006 general election, which the Democrat won 57% to 40%. Ritter has a bigger lead against former Rep. Tom Tancredo, 52% to 38%.
• The numbers among Hispanics are very interesting: Beauprez leads Ritter 50% to 36%, while Tancredo trails 53% to 35%.

Applying the 50% rule tells us that Ritter is vulnerable, contrary to what we might have expected given the ease of his victory in the 2006 open race. But Ritter’s approval rating is now weak enough (47% approve of his performance, versus 40%) that the GOP has an opening. That said, much will depend on Republican recruitment. Attorney General John Suthers was the only current office holder who was mentioned as a contender, and he ruled out challenging Ritter last week. That leaves the GOP’s fate in the hands of also-rans like Beauprez and Tancredo.

Furthermore, this poll is a reminder of the growing importance of the Hispanic vote in Colorado. For a Republican candidate to even have a shot at contesting a statewide election, he must hold his own among Hispanics - and that is not something Tancredo (known first and foremost for his anti-immigration stances) would be capable of. On the other hand, Hispanics seem open to the idea of voting against Ritter; that is shown not only by his numbers against Beauprez, but also by his approval rating among that constituency (44% approve, 48% disapprove). PPP suggests this is due to Ritter’s not appointing a Hispanic to Salazar’s Senate seat.

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In other gubernatorial news (and I promise to publish my governor’s rankings in the days ahead!), California’s numerous Democratic hopefuls are already piling up cash in preparation for what could be the most hotly contested 2010 primary in the country.

Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi and San Fransisco Mayor Gavin Newsom have already raised more than $1 million; both have $700,000 of cash-on-hand… and they will need much more to catch up to Treasurer Bill Lockyer and Attorney General and former Governor Jerry Brown who have warchests of $10 million and $4 million, respectively (those amounts have not been raised for the gubernatorial election, but they can be transferred to it).

In particular, Jerry Brown is moving increasingly quickly in what the San Fransisco Gate describes as “non-stop fundraising.” He raised $3.4 million during this past year, and he is now set for his first Beverly Hills fundraiser meant to raise money for a gubernatorial bid. Of course, Brown has a lot of connection given his very lengthy history: He served two gubernatorial terms in… the 1970s, and he ran for the 1992 presidential election (he was the last man standing against Bill Clinton in the Democratic primaries).

All of this early agitation could mean trouble for Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who has been dreaming about the Governor’s mansion for years but who must win re-election this coming fall before he can start campaigning and raising money for the gubernatorial race. Depending on how competitive a mayoral race he faces, he could find himelf at the end of 2009 with a depleted bank account, a few months to go before the gubernatorial primary, and Democratic rivals that have piled up tens of millions of dollars. Could Villaraigosa make a run in such conditions?