Polls find unpredictable Senate races in Illinois, Florida

Florida’s Senate race is arguably the most confusing of all 2010 contests. Not only are the primary fields of both parties are in flux, but most high-profile contenders (Jeb Bush, Alex Sink, Bill McCollum) have declined a run - leaving politicians with little statewide name recognition.

Both of these problems make Research 2000’s poll of Florida’s Senate race somewhat useless. For one, the survey included McCollum and Rep. Allen Boyd - both of which announced they would not run while the poll was in the field. Second, of the six candidates tested, only Charlie Crist and Bill McCollum ring enough of a bell for their number to be meaningful. That said, there are some interesting tidbits to be found.

  • If Governor Charlie Crist jumps in the race (which is considered an unlikely prospect, but the NRSC is trying to lure him in), he would be the overwhelming favorite to win the Senate race. Not only does he enjoy an amazingly high favorability rating (65% versus 23%), but he also crushes all Democratic opponents: 49% to 28% against Rep. Kendrick Meek, 52% to 26% against Boyd, and 52% to 21% against state Senator Gelber.
  • Bill McCollum - the only other candidate known by more than a third of voters - also crushes Democratic opponents (by 16% against Meek, by 20% against Boyd, by 28% against Gelber). Part of this should be attributed to his higher name recognition, but McCollum enjoys a strong favorability rating: 42% to 23%.
  • Finally, Research 2000 tested Marco Rubio - the most likely among these three Republicans to be the GOP’s general election nominee. Rubio’s name recognition is low, though negative (11% to 18%) and he trails two of the Democrats: 31% to 22% against Meek, 29% to 22% against Boyd, 23% to 23% against Gelber. There are so many respondents who are undecided in these three match-ups that it is hard to make much of these numbers.

These numbers teach us two things. First, the NRSC is right to try to recruit Charlie Crist. His entry in the race would be the best news Senate Republicans could get this cycle and it could very well leave Florida out of the list of competitive Senate races. On the other hand, it would open up the gubernatorial race.

Second, the race is wide open if Crist does not jump in - and we probably will not know what to make of it until well into 2010. To the extent that the match-ups involving Rubio pitted against each other candidates with equally low name recognition, they reveal just how unpredictable the race is because of the humongous number of undecided voters.

Research 2000 also tested the Illinois Senate race, where Democrat Roland Burris will face voters for the first time since he was appointed by Rod Blagojevich.

The first issue, of course, is the Democratic primary - and there is certainly an opening for potential Burris challengers:

  • Burris’s favorability rating is mediocre, with 35% holding a favorable opinion and 35% an unfavorable one. Rep. Schakowsky, by contrast, has a positive rating of 33% to 10%; state Treasurer Giannoulias does too, 36% to 15%.
  • In a primary match-up, Burris leads with 26% versus 12% for Schakowky and 11% for Giannoulias.

Needless to say, for an incumbent to get a quarter of the vote in a primary match-up is a sign of great weakness, and the fact that his two potential opponents have far lower name recognition than he does limit their numbers. If either Schakowsky or Giannoulias jumps in the race, Burris will be greatly endangered. (On the other hand, he would be in a better position than expected if both jump in.)

The second issue is the general election, and all three of these Democrats lead against their potential Republican contenders - Rep. Kirk and Rep. Roskam:

  • Kirk is heralded as a promising candidate for Republicans, but his favorability rating is not very good: 37% hold a favorable view of him, versus 41%. Roskam is not as well known (19% favorable, 23% unfavorable).
  • Burris leads Kirk 37% to 30%; he leads Roskam 38% to 25%. Those are good showings for a politician who has just gone through as much press as Burris has - but any incumbent under 50% is vulnerable, let alone one who is under 40%.
  • Schakowsky also leads Kirk (36% to 30%) and Roskam (37% to 25%), as does Giannoulias (38% to 30% and 38% to 25%).

What is absolutely fascinating is that Kirk and Roskam get the same amount of support against all three Democrats - 30% for Kirk and 25% for Roskam. That is a particularly disappointing level of support for Kirk, who has a far higher level of name recognition than any of the three Democrats (including Burris), and it suggests any Republican (even one with a moderate reputation) will face great difficulties winning the race.

6 Responses to “Polls find unpredictable Senate races in Illinois, Florida”

  1. 1 reydel

    we need represents for peaple of america,not talkers or more promesys,we need a real solutions for americans,and we want see,reals thins and not more blabla blabla from ofices and burocracts

  2. 2 Fort Lauderdale Escorts

    This is interesting news. I will be certain to inform Fort Lauderdale Escorts. Please keep us updated. South Florida needs this great information.

  3. 3 buy instagram likes

    Excellent website. Lots of helpful information here.
    I’m sending it to some friends ans also sharing in delicious. And of course, thank you for your sweat!

    my site - buy instagram likes

  4. 4 https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCk3IGn8avSXI66xBOQ_k5Ag

    Greetings from Idaho! I’m bored to death at work so I decided to browse your blog on my iphone during lunch break. I really like the information you provide here and can’t wait to take a look when I get home.
    I’m shocked at how fast your blog loaded on my phone .. I’m not even using
    WIFI, just 3G .. Anyhow, very good site!

  5. 5 homepage

    Because it is simpler than to run a shop in the market to
    run an electronic on-line shop that to some shop which offers you every thing under the sun that are available
    online merchants offer year long savings. Also these online stores like Overstock.
    com offer unique discount including overstock promotion rule for promotional and publicity function.
    Although an authentic Overstock coupon is hard to find but after you pay
    money for it be sure to be dazzled.

    Overstock Coupon is of very great use, because it has increased
    the novelty of on the web shopping by many times among the mind of people.
    It’s also many availing things which improve its need. Several kinds of coupon limitations are there particularly Money Saver Coupon Code, Free Ship Coupon Code and several more; all are useful for various reasons.
    Now these codes are being out of stock to complete business. This is even comfortable for that consumers because they are now free from the danger of marketing using a huge amount of money. Actually some charge websites and web sites have started the Overstock Coupon system. They provide plans like on a recharge of Rs.10 only one can get 200-500 concession on looking for Rs 999 and above. By utilizing these plans, even the small-scale internet sites are extending their sales. Many shopping websites have fixed a margin such that shopping beyond that certain amount would undergo no delivery cost. Online coupons are actually available to even reduce the shipping charge.

  6. 6 Magaret

    Hello just wanted to give you a quick heads up and let you know a few of the images aren’t loading properly. I’m not sure why but I think its a linking issue.
    I’ve tried it in two different web browsers and both show the same outcome.

Leave a Reply

If you like the website...

... Support Campaign Diaries