The Judd Gregg buzz is picking up, with the Senator himself acknowledging that he is being considered for the position of Commerce Secretary. As I explained last night, the potential for liberal outrage if Lynch gets to designate Gregg’s successor is so great as to make Kirsten Gillibrand’s appointment look like children’s play.
That does not mean that we should lose sight of New York’s new Senator, who is currently working overtime to convince state Democrats that she is not the enemy.
First, she has hired a prominent New York Hispanic: former Bronx Democratic Leader Roberto Ramirez. Given that her stance on immigration has emerged as the most dangerous part of Gillibrand’s record, this move is a necessary step towards diffusing tension with the state’s Hispanic leaders. At the very least, Ramirez will allow Gillibrand to establish contacts and start conversations.
Second, Gillibrand has scheduled meetings with most of her critics, starting with Rep. Carolyn McCarthy . As we saw during her acceptance speech last week, Gillibrand is looking to convince liberals that she wants to work with them and that they should not view her as an obstacle to their objectives; she had for instance pledged to work with McCarthy to strengthen background check requirements in gun sales.
It will be fascinating to watch whether Gillibrand can give liberals enough assurances. After all, she did win the support of gay right groups within a few hours of her appointment and despite a mediocre record on gay issues. Can she perform a similarly smooth transition overall? We should quickly know whether Gillibrand succeeded by listening to the post-meeting reactions of people like McCarthy and Rivera; neither has not shied away from offering blistering criticism for now, so any change of tone will be quickly noticed.
However, it is obvious that Gillibrand has a long way to go before winning her critics over. A few days ago, we learned that Assemblyman Peter Rivera accused the new Senator of “xenophobia” for her position on immigration. Now, Rivera is distributing a 40-page dossier on Gillibrand to state legislators.
Some of Gillibrand’s former House colleagues also remain skeptical. Last week, we saw that most skipped Paterson’s press conference in Albany, despite receiving an invitation. Now, a fair number are refusing to say that they support Gillibrand’s re-election in 2010. Rep. Jerrold Nadler did his best not to answer the question, while Rep. Edolphus Towns went as far as to say he was “open” to endorsing a primary challenger.
It is in this context that a poll was released - this one from Marist:
- Overall, 46% say Gillibrand was the right choice, 24% the wrong choice, and 30% have no opinion. Just like the Siena poll released earlier this week, Marist found that Gillibrand’s appointment is better received by Republicans than by Democrats - albeit by less dramatic margins than in Siena. As importantly, Gillibrand herself is far more popular among Republicans (she has a favorability rating of 51%) than among Democrats (where only 33% have a favorable view of her).
- However, the most important finding is that most voters do not have an opinion of her: 48% among the population at large, and an even higher 57% among Democrats.
- In general election match-ups, Gillibrand crushes Rep. Peter King, 49% to 24%. But she is only barely ahead of George Pataki, 44% to 42%.
The fact that far more Democrats refuse to express an opinion suggest that they are more skeptical of their new Senator but that they are unwilling to express an unfavorable opinion without knowing more about her; in other words, they remain open to criticizing her - and the next few months will be critical if Gillibrand wants to close the door to a primary challenge.
It is harder to know what to make of the general election numbers: There is no reason to believe that Pataki is eying a political comeback, and the fact that King is even less known that Gillibrand makes it difficult to make much of that 25% margin.
David Paterson’s numbers, on the other hand, are worrisome:
- He loses 47% to 41% in a match-up against Michael Bloomberg; he led by 4% in November. Of course, this is not an interesting test since Bloomberg is very unlikely to jump in the gubernatorial race just one month after his mayoral race.
- But Paterson also trails against Rudy Giuliani, 47% to 46%. Paterson led by 10% in a November poll and by 9% in an October poll.
Needless to say, the combination of the state’s budgetary problems with the Senate appointment mess is putting Paterson in a tricky situation - and this is not the first poll to find him in trouble. A recent survey found him ahead of Andrew Cuomo by just 2% in the Democratic primary.
Patterson’s weak numbers I would postulate is more over the uproar or apathy among Democrats because of the Senate appointment, and less because of state bugetary problems. If Gillibrand proves her sel and assures liberals, Patterson’s number’s will improve, although the financial problems could weigh him down again. Also Rudy Giuliani said that a challange against him would be based on how Patterson handles the State budget, so if Paterson is doing a decent job he probably won’t bother going in.
Gillibrand will have to do more than warm words. Her actions and votes will be analysed not just for 2010 but also 2012 - she has two elections in quick succession where she can easily be challenged.
Taniel is right that with most Democrats either saying they don`t like her or being quiet at the moment she has to work hard. We will see how it goes but she has her work cut out for her. She is too ambitious and cut throat.