Campaign Diaries

Public Policy Polling continues to stay on top of the 2010 cycle by releasing the first Colorado poll to test Michael Bennet’s strength.

The newly appointed Senator remains unknown to a plurality of voters: 45% of respondents have no opinion of Bennet, while 33% hold a favorable view and 21% an unfavorable one. Very importantly, however, Bennet is viewed very favorably by Democrats, 55% of whom have a favorable view of him (versus 7%).

This is a very different situation than the one Kirsten Gillibrand faces in New York, as a poll released yesterday showed her far more popular among Republicans than among Democrats. Bennet shows no such early vulnerability, and he remains unlikely to face a serious primary challenge next year.

As for the general election, PPP tested four potential match-ups. Unfortunately, it chose the wrong week to go in the field as two of the Republicans it included in the poll withdrew from the race yesterday - thus making half of the poll obsolete:

• Bennet leads former Rep. Tom Tancredo 48% to 39%; but he trails former Governor Bill Owens 44% to 41%.
• Bennet led by single-digits against both Republicans who passed on the race yesterday: 40% to 34% against Attorney General John Suthers, 43% to 37% against former Rep. Scott McInnis.

These numbers contain encouraging news for both parties. On the one hand, Bennet is undoubtedly vulnerable. He is unknown to voters, his support is well under 50% and he trails a potential challenger - clearly a worrisome sign since we do not even know how solid Bennet will be on the campaign trail yet.

On the other hand, the poll contains a lot to reassure Democrats. For one, Bennet has only been introduced to voters for the past five weeks, while Owens served as the state’s top executive for eight years and while Tancredo is a high-profile state politician. In other words, Bennet has a lot of room to grow - and he is already holding his own.

Second, Bennet’s vulnerability will do Republicans no good if they cannot field a credible challenger. Suthers and McInnis’s bowing out of the race have left Owens as the GOP’s only dream candidate.

Third, this poll confirms that Tancredo would be a weak general election candidate. Despite having a higher profile than either Suthers or McInnis, he underperforms both of them and he allows Bennet to shoot up to 48% - a clear sign that Colorado voters are rejecting the conservative Republican.

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The day’s second and third polls come from New York’s mayoral race. One was conducted for NY1 by Baruch College Survey Research, testing Mayor Michael Bloomberg against his two most probable opponents:

• Bloomberg leads Comptroller Bill Thompson 45% to 32%; he is ahead of Rep. Anthony Weiner 43% to 36%.
• Bloomberg retains a very strong approval rating, at 64%.
• The Democratic primary is very competitive, with 31% of respondents choosing Weiner and 22% Thompson.

The second poll was conducted by Quinnipiac:

• Bloomberg enjoys an even stronger approval rating (at 69%), despite the fact that voters strongly disapprove of his maneuver to extend term limits. Weiner and Thompson remain largely unknown to voters.
• In a match-up against Thompson, Bloomberg leads 50% to 34%; in a match-up against Weiner, it’s 50% to 35%.
• Like in the Baruch poll, Weiner has a small lead in the Democratic primary: 30% to 23%.

Only the result of Baruch’s match-up between Bloomberg and Weiner find any sort of encouraging number for Democrats. For now, New York voters approve of Bloomberg’s performance and they are not entertaining the possibility of voting against him (even if they disapprove of the fact that Bloomberg is allowed to run for a third term in the first place).

Thankfully for Weiner and Thompson, they can at least count on a level of base support (this is New York, after all) that opens the door to the race becoming competitive in the future. And both have room to grow, since they remain largely unknown to city voters.