In New Jersey, Franklin Mayor Brian Levine joined the increasingly crowded field of New Jersey’s gubernatorial race. With his entry, 4 Republicans are now vying for the right to challenge incumbent Governor Jon Corzine in the general election.
The establishment’s favorite is (and remains) former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie. But New Jersey’s Republicans voters have often nominated conservative candidates that have had trouble winning statewide election in a left-leaning state, so it remains to be seen whether Christie can coast to the nomination.
Ironically, Levine’s entry might facilitate Christie’s task. Levine is a fiscal conservative that is expected to receive some support from party activists. But he is also likely to split the conservative vote with another candidate who is already in the race, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan. While it would have already been hard for one of these candidates to beat Christie, a crowded primary means that Christie only needs a plurality of primary voters and the support of moderate Republicans could be enough. (Assemblyman Merkt is also in the race.)
That said, the need to compete with Levine, Lonegan and Merkt might force Christie to go further to the right than he would want in the primary - though we should not overstate this concern: There is enough time between the primary and the general election for Christie to position himself well against Corzine - not to mention that general election voters are not expected to pay much attention to the relatively low-profile Republican primary. If anything, the appearance of a more contested primary could help Christie by putting him in the news.
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Meanwhile, Delaware’s former Lieutenant Governor delivered some major news this week when he hinted that he was looking at challenging the state’s lone representative, Republican Mike Castle. “It’s been difficult to get people to step up to the plate and run against Congressman Castle. I’ve got to tell you, that’s something I’m looking at right now,” said John Carney in an interview with a local radio station.
Carney had a bad 2008. First, he lost a bruising primary battle for the gubernatorial nomination. Second, the Delaware Governor appointed Ted Kaufman for the Senate seat left vacant by Joe Biden when Carney had expressed interest; Kaufman is intended as a placeholder in order for Joe’s son Biden to be able to run in 2010.
An openly frustrated Carney had hinted at a possible run for Senate, which would have made life more difficult for Beau Biden. But his latest comments suggest he is now leaning against that option, which would leave a clear path for Beau.
Carney’s flirtations with a House run also mean that Democrats might finally field a credible challenger against Rep. Castle, one of the last Republicans surviving in Democratic territory. In fact, the prospect of a difficult re-election run could be enough for Castle to be scared away from running. He is old and perennially subject to retirement rumors; but he did not have to make any effort to win over the past few cycles, so why would he have called it quits?
Castle might now wonder whether another House term is worth the trouble of facing Carney. That could be a blessing for Democrats, who would immediately be favored to pick up his House seat if he retired, but it could also be a curse if Castle opted to run for the open Senate seat (as the NRSC is undoubtedly urging him to do).
Actually, all of the opponents that Christie has could damage him, especially if all of them pile on him saying that he is too liberal etc. Of course, he is still the overwhelming favorite in the GOP primary thanks to establishment support, and indeed, Christie’s main weakness at this point is his low name recogintion. If he actually wants to defeat Corzine, and not merely come close, then he will need to actively spread his message and specfically point out how he would be supeior to Corzine. Not to understate Corzine’s vulernablilty, as he is ver unpopular and unlike Senate and the Presidential race, it is much easier for a GOP gubertorial candidate to focus only on state politics and show little connection to the National GOP. But the history of Democrats and independents coming home to the Democrat also includes guberntorial races.
On Delaware, Carney hinting at a house run is good news for Democrats, as Castle has gotten little competetion ever since he won his house seat in 1992, after his sucessful tenure as Deleware Governor. Of course, Deleware has become much more Democratic from the Presidential to the local level since he has run, but Castle is an icon of an earlier era where Moderate Republicans held considerable power. If Carney was to run against Castle, I feel that Castle would still have a slight edge because of his entrenchment, and because of that I seriously doubt that Carney would cause him to decide to run for the Deleware Senate, in which it would be him who would be the underdog if Beau Biden is the Democratic nominee. I say that he either retires or decides to run for reeelection in his house seat.
Mike Castle is a Republican that I can live with. I really wish the GOP would “re-invent” their party to be more inclusive of politicians like Castle. Truth of the matter, Castle, if he was 30 years younger, probably would have switched parties since he’s a better fit with the Dems than the current Republican party. I don’t believe that Carney can defeat Castle, but Castle may just become too frustrated and retire anyway.
does carney vs castle remind anyone of carper vs roth?
carper the popular governor took on the elderly senator roth - a DE institution and outworked him to win the seat. carney could very well do the same to castle although castle is probably still the favorite.