Barack Obama is now the United States’ 44th President, bringing to an emotional close a long saga I started blogging about in August 2007. But there is no time to pause, as the 2010 cycle has already heat up!
Yesterday, Public Policy Polling released the cycle’s first poll from Ohio. The surveys tested probable Republican nominee and former Rep. Rob Portman against three potential Democratic opponents:
- Portman leads 41% to 39% against Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher, 40% to 34% against Rep. Tim Ryan and 42% to 34% against Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner.
None of these candidates is universally known - far from it - so we still have a very long way to go in this race. Their favorability ratings gives us an early idea of their electability, however. 28% have a favorable opinion of Portman, while 23% have an unfavorable one; the numbers are 40-32 for Fisher, 34-36 for Brunner and 26-27 for Ryan.
What is most fascinating is that Portman is the least well-known of the four candidates; yet he leads all the match-ups. This suggests that the former representative is boosted by his party label, a surprising finding since we have grown used to a generic Democrat distancing a generic Republican in a swing state like Ohio.
This is perhaps due to the fact that Portman is getting strong support from Republican voters (80% against Brunner and Fisher, 74% against Ryan) while the Democratic candidate only get between 59% and 68% of their party’s base. We should certainly expect this to improve over the course of the campaign.
All in all, the poll should dispel any notion that this open seat will fall in Democratic hands as easily as New Mexico and Virginia’s did in 2008; it should also dispel Republican hopes that Portman is a formidable candidate whose entry is enough to keep the seat in Republican hands. (He is stuck in the low 40s, which is certainly not a sign of invincibility.)
I delved into Rob Portman’s strengths and weakness a few days ago, so perhaps it is time to look into the Democratic contenders, as the party’s field remains very confused.
As I have already noted, Ohio’s primary is early enough that a competitive Democratic primary should not be disastrous to the party’s chances. And before worrying about the risks of a divisive battle, Democrats should focus on convincing one high-profile candidate to jump in the race.
Already, Attorney General Richard Cordray and Columbus Mayor Micheal Coleman have announced that they will not join the race. Judge Bill O’Neill, has said that he will run if Fisher does not (O’Neill was the Democratic nominee against GOP Rep. LaTourette in 2008; he lost by 19%.)
Ryan and Fisher attracted the most early buzz, but there is now plenty of speculation centering of Brunner. As Secretary of State, Brunner attracted a lot of attention during the presidential campaign by issuing a series of crucial rulings (this is Ohio, after all) that made it easier for voters to cast a ballot and that made it harder for watchers to challenge voters at the polls; this might have helped endear her to Democratic activists across the country.
The Buckeye State Blog reports that Brunner might have already met with Governor Ted Strickland to discuss the consequences of her jumping in the Senate race. (Democrats are particularly worried that her candidacy could endanger Democratic control of the Apportionment Board just as we are approaching redistricting.)
The larger problem is that Fisher, Burner and Ryan are all ambitious politicians, and all still have many years to spend in their current positions. This is a particularly complex decision for Ryan: He is still in his 30s and he is occupying a safe blue seat, so he has a lot of time to rise in the House leadership before considering a statewide run. Does he really want to endanger his career and potentially risk finding himself locked out of politics at such an early age?
It is somewhat unlikely to imagine all three bowing out of the race, but Ohio Democrats have enough of a bench to survive such a scenario; Reps. Zach Space, Betty Sutton and Marcy Kaptur are all mentioned as potential candidates.
(Note that Democrats faced a similar situation in 2006. Until then-Rep. Brown changed his mind and jumped in the Senate race at a relatively late date of the cycle, it looked like Democrats would have no strong candidate to run against vulnerable Senator Mike DeWine.)
Not Zach Space. He is a pretty weak campaigner and holds a Republican district that Democrats would likely lose without him.
I also think that it’s interesting that Portman is ahead of all of the Democrats despite having the lowest name recogintion, but I speculate that it has to do with his very strong support with Republicans (which seems to be a recurring theme, with early polls for 2010 races all showing much stronger Republican solidarity), and it’s possible that Ohio Republicans remember his previous service in the Bush administration fondley and flock to him strongly, while for each of the Democrats they are less interested. I also think that in Ohio, as well as for many other states, the Democrats are more ideologically diverse than the Republicans and therefore won’t all gather for the Democratic candidate like they do for Republicans, at first.
In all, that Rob Portam is in the race shows that the GOP will definitly have a solid candidate in the race while it is somewhat less clear on the Democratic side. Yes, he isn’t the candidate would give them an early lock, but in the GOP always new that there strongest hope was for Voichonvic (sp?) to run for reelection. I strongly expect for Democrats to talk specfically about Rob Portan’s strong free trade record and less about his Bush connections in general in an effort to bring him down.
Since I care about issues first of all and political parties not at all, beating Rob Portman with just anyone who has a D after their name is not enough for me. A couple of those Democratic representatives who are mentioned as possible candidates have voting records that are sufficiently awful on some issues that I care about that I hope we can do better. At least, I won’t be making contributions to either Tim Ryan or Marcy Kaptur. Both favor the death penalty to the point of wanting to expand it. Both are hardliners on law and order issues. Ryan is an extreme right-to-lifer on abortion issues and Kaptur is only slightly less bad. Kaptur is an extremist on wanting to punish people who burn a flag. Ryan would deny people the right to sue on matters relating to the Pledge of Allegiance. Kaptur voted for the original Patriot Act (when Ryan was not a member of the House). These are matters about which I care much more than anything relating to trade. I have no idea how Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner would stand on any of these issues and Bill O’Neill has the record of a loser, but Betty Sutton was fine on issues during her only term in the House. If Sutton won’t run, I hope Ohio Democrats will check out Fisher and Brunner, before settling on the likes of Ryan or Kaptur or another Bob Casey.
Ken, you are right that Ryan has the profile of a moderate-to-conservative Democrat - and you listed the reasons. This also played out in 2006, when Reps. Brown and Ryan were both considering a Senate run. The fact that Brown ran, that Ryan did not and that Brown ended up winning the general election was one of the best news of the cycle for the Democratic Left.
After the crap that Space pulled on the Cap and Trade bill, he is out of here for sure. What does the fool think he is repersenting? New York, LA or some Eastern US district. We here have to work for a living and being unemployed, I can tell you he pissed away his political carrer by agreeing with the other nuts who voted for this bill. So Long Zack, You are out of here.
signed one of many unhappy constituants in the 18th district.