Campaign Diaries

For the past nine years, Rick Lazio has been either the answer to a trivia question - “who was Hillary’s first Senate opponent?” - or the example of how not to cross the line of aggressiveness in a debate - especially when facing a female opponent. (This clip from John Stewart is the only video footage I can find of that confrontation.)

Now, The New York Times reports that Lazio is back on the political circuit, having conversations with New York’s Republican leaders about the possibility of a gubernatorial run.

Lazio would undoubtedly be a tough sell. Not only has he dropped out of the public eye for almost a decade, but the last act of his political career is a double-digit statewide defeat; his career as a bank executive in the intervening years could also become a handicap in the context of the economic crisis. Lazio might also face difficulties securing the endorsement of the Conservative Party, whose support is essential for the GOP to win in New York.

Yet, Lazio’s entry would be a very positive development for the GOP since it would give them at least one credible and recognizable challenger to Governor David Paterson; until now, the only potential name that was circulating was that of former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (and, as we established the other day, Giuliani’s numbers are truly disastrous).

It is important to remember that Lazio was viewed as a promising Republican politician in the late 1990s, and the GOP was happy to have jump in the Senate race after Rudy Giuliani dropped out. He proved to be a threatening opponent to Clinton, one that tied her in the polls and outspend her - a remarkable feat given the Clintons’ fundraising machine. At the end of the day, Clinton prevailed by 12%, but 2000 was a good year for Senate Democrats (and should have a good year for Democrats in general).

Lazio’s first advantage is that he is a rare Republican untarnished by the Bush years: he left Congress (and politics) in 2000. Not only would there be no ads about how much he has supported Bush’s policies, but this could also help Lazio portray himself as a moderate who wants to take the GOP back to its pre-Bush days.

Second, Lazio would help the GOP play the white Catholic card, a card that has helped them before. Rallying white ethnics might not be as easy today as it was in the early 1990s, but it is all New York Republicans have left to attempt a comeback in the Empire State - and they are looking to take that route with the possibility of Peter King’s Senate candidacy coupled with a Lazio or Giuliani gubernatorial run. Republicans could further this demographic appeal with their pick for Lieutenant Governor.

If the economic crisis is still running as deep in 2010 and if middle-class voters have come to blame Democrats, the GOP’s ticket could become far more viable than it appears today and Lazio would have to be taken very seriously by Paterson - far more seriously, in my opinion, than Rudy Giuliani who has been regularly overestimated for the past nine years and who is once again being presented to us as a much more dangerous challenger than he really is.

Of course, Paterson has weapons of his own to counter the GOP’s white Catholic card. For one, there are no signs for now that Paterson will be particularly vulnerable in 2010. Sure, the economic crisis and Albany’s budgetary problems could endanger him over the next year, but he remains popular and it will take something for Republicans to win statewide in New York. Second, Paterson will be able to select two Democrats who will appear with him at the top of the ballot - his running mate (the candidate for Lieutenant Governor) and New York’s junior Senator, whose identity will be announced in the days ahead.

In short, the fact that Lazio’s name is even circulating is a testament to how much New York’s Republican Party has been decimated - and it is precisely that context of devastation that is making Lazio a welcome returner.