Two new polls of New Jersey’s gubernatorial race paint a brutal picture for Governor Jon Corzine:
- Rasmussen’s poll finds Corzine trailing former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie, 42% to 40%. Corzine posts an approval rating of only 44%.
- Monmouth shows Corzine ahead 38% to 36% against Christie - as disastrous a result for an incumbent. Corzine’s leads against other little-known Republicans are more solid, ranging from 14% to 17%.
These two surveys come only a few days after Farleigh Dickinson found Corzine in trouble, leading Christie 40% to 33%. (That margin looks better for Corzine, but for an incumbent to be stuck at 40% is never a good sign.)
Keep in mind that this election will be held this coming November, so these match-ups are not being tested that early. For one, these early polls showing Christie in a toss-up with Corzine should help him mount a credible campaign and attract donors.
And there is every reason for Republicans to hope they can avenge some of their 2008 losses next fall. Sure, Democrats always end up pulling ahead in the final weeks of New Jersey elections. Sure, Republicans have not won a statewide race since 1997. But the unpopularity of Democratic incumbents is bound to come back to bite them at some point - and that is much more likely to happen in a state election than in a federal one.
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Meanwhile, Republican state Attorney General Robert McDonnell continues to look like he has the upper-hand in Virginia’s gubernatorial election.
For one, McDonnell is uncontested in the primary because of the surprising decision of Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling not to seek the governorship; on the other hand, Democrats are preparing to go through a difficult three-way primary that will be resolved in June.
This week, candidates had to release their financial reports for the second half of 2008, and McDonnell surprised most observers by reporting a bigger fundraising haul than Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe, a former DNC Chairman with lots of connections.
McDonnell raised $1.6 million from July to December, and more than $1 million in the period following McAuliffe’s entry in the race; the Democrat, meanwhile, raised about $900,000 since he formed his explanatory committee in November. Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds raised more than $700,000.
Fundraising strength is certainly not enough to make a candidate, but for McAuliffe to fail to top his rivals in this category is a significant story given that he is reputed as one of the most prominent fundraisers in the country - and much of his job as DNC Chairman consisted in collecting donations for the party.
McDonnell spokespeman Phil Cox made sure to point this out. “Given that Chairman McAuliffe is a professional fundraiser and his ability to raise money has been a central rationale for his candidacy, it’s surprising he did not raise more money,” he said.
(Somewhat disturbingly, Virginia is one of only five states not to have any limit on contributions state candidates can receive, and candidates make sure to take advantage of that: McAuliffe received two contributions of $100,000, for instance!).
Note that there has been no poll I am aware of of Virginia’s gubernatorial race, making it difficult to know the candidates’ potential: Is McAuliffe’s image clean enough to be competitive? How much can Democrats hope to derail McDonnell, who is after all the candidate in the race who has already been elected statewide?
The lack of information is certainly disappointing since the stakes are very high in this contest and since the general election will be held in less than 10 months.
i think it’s JON corzine. and it does look like we’ll have to get into a little issue questions for mr christie. you know, pro-choice or pro-life? how would he deal with the budget problems NJ has had? and maybe we can find a few unsavory things about this self-appointed white knight and rip his armor off and then rip him to shreds.
chris christie is a generic candidate right now, once he establishes that he’s a republican, he won’t be terribly appealing to NJites.
Jon Corzine’s unpopularity means that the GOP actually has a chance at an upset, but voters in NJ have a habit of always breaking towards the Democrat. Christie’s main challange is to defy the conventional wisdom of (independent) voters to vote Democrat generally at the last minute, and show that he has a much better way of handling the state. If he simply assumes he can bash Corzine and win, then he is woefullyl unware of NJ’s pessimestic yet strongly Democratic history.
Another issue is money: Corzine is a multi-millionare that can probably spend millions, while Christie will have to concentrate on raising money, and I heard he is having trouble with that. Not to mention that he still has Primary opposition to deal with, which will be a distraction despite the fact that Christie will be supported by the NJ and national GOP.
In Virginia, McDonnel’s fundraising advantage isn’t suprising. As Taniel said, he is the only statewide elected offical in the Governor’s race, and since he has no competition in the GOP primary he can get all of the GOP donor money, while the three democrats have to split between themselves. McAuliffe’s poor fundraising comparatively can be traced to him getting into the race (even in his unoffical preperation) at a much later date than his rivals on both parties and that he is much less connected to VA democrats than Deeds or Moran.
Politically, a poll on Rasmussen I think early this month or late last month showed the Democrats being competitve, with only McAuliffe lagging a bit behind but still within mid single digits. I don’t think this should be taken as a warning sign that Democrats are the underdogs in the VA gubernetorial but that they only have a 50/50 chance of keeping it.