Campaign Diaries

Research 2000 tested a match-up for Vermont’s Senate seat between Democratic incumbent Pat Leahy and Republican Governor Jim Douglas. As I explained in my Senate rankings, Douglas is the only challenger who could make this race remotely interesting - and there is no indication that he is considering the race.

Indeed, Douglas is up for for re-election in 2010, so why would he abandon his relatively safe job for a quixotic effort to topple Leahy?

That said, it is certainly interesting to measure Douglas’s potential, and this poll certainly confirms that the Governor should stay where he is: Leahy demolishes him, 58% to 36%. Douglas has a good approval rating of 52%, but it pales in comparison to Leahy’s (63%).

In other words, Leahy is a lock in 2010, and should barely break a sweat even if the NRSC manages to recruit Douglas.

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Meanwhile, two new polls test New York’s Senate seat:

• Marist finds that 40% of New Yorkers would like Paterson to pick Andrew Cuomo, while 25% would prefer Caroline Kennedy (other Democrats with less statewide name recognition are in single digits). A month ago, Marist had found Cuomo and Kennedy exactly tied.
• Research 2000, meanwhile, finds Kennedy edging out Cuomo, 31% to 26%.
• Research 2000 also tested general election match-ups, finding that Kennedy and Cuomo both crushing Peter King and Rudy Giuliani by double-digits, while Rep. Steve Israel only leads King and Giuliani by 3%.

Appointment fight: Of the four polls released over the past two weeks (PPP and Quinnipiac found Kennedy’s support in free fall earlier this month), Research 2000 is the only one to have Kennedy edging out Cuomo.

Of course, all of this only matters for us to measure the (negative) impact Kennedy’s PR effort have had on her public image, and thus the impact her 2010 campaigning might have on her numbers. These polls matter little for the purpose of determining who will be New York’s next Senator since only David Paterson’s opinion matters.

Today, Paterson said he would make his decision public shortly after Obama’s inauguration, and he added “There are some great candidates who have distinguished themselves but aren’t so well known” - an apparent attempt to quiet talk of Cuomo and Kennedy. (As I wrote the other day, this could be due to the fact that Paterson is not choosing Kennedy just as much as to the fact that he doesn’t want to look boxed in.)

General election: The most revealing set of numbers could be those opposing Rep. Steve Israel to Republicans Peter King and Rudy Giuliani: Israel only musters 3% leads against both GOPers, but 77% of respondents have no opinion of him! On the other hand, both Republicans have high name recognitions; if they cannot win this match-up at this time, could they hope to make the race competitive in 2010?

Giuliani in particular looks like he would not be a viable candidate! His numbers are weaker than those of Peter King, and he has a truly dismal favorability rating (38% versus 56%).

Giuliani’s numbers are relevant not only to the senatorial race, but also to the gubernatorial one since the former Mayor is one of the only credible candidates against David Paterson. But it is clear that Giuliani’s disastrous presidential campaign has erased whatever good will he had accumulated in the Empire State after September 11th. If all Paterson has to worry about is Giuliani, he should be in good shape.