Campaign Diaries

Prominent politicians are continuing to come forward with their intentions, and it is now Ohio’s turn to see some recruitment action.

Politico is reporting that former Rep. Robert Portman is set to announce his candidacy tomorrow, making him the first politician to jump in Ohio’s Senate race. There is still some uncertainty, however. This morning, Portman held a bizarre press conference to say he was “leaning toward deciding to run” but that he had not finalized his decision yet; he added that he might do so as early as tomorrow.

Portman is the GOP’s first choice, so his candidacy would represent a major recruiting victory for the NRSC. The 51-year old former congressman already has a long resume: He has served as Bush’s trade representative from 2005 to 2006 and as the head of the Office of Management and Budget from 2006 to 2007. Portman was also prominently featured in the summer’s Republican veepstakes; for a short period of time, he was only one of four names I listed in the veepstake’s “top tier.”

Besides his stature, there are two attributes Republicans love about Portman.

First, he should prove a strong fundraiser, which will allow the NRSC not to have to bankroll his entire campaign (as they had to do for some of their 2008 candidates). He has always had very extensive connections in the Republican establishment, even more so after his jobs in the Bush Administration. Furthermore, he already has $1.5 million left over in his House campaign committee; he is allowed to transfer that money to a Senate committee.

Second, Portman is likely to clear the Republican field. The GOP has a strong bench in Ohio, and many other Republicans were taking a look at the race; but most were expected to defer to Portman’s decision - both out of respect for his superior stature and because they do not believe they can beat him in a Republican primary in which Portman would have the establishment’s supports and millions of dollars to spend.

Other Republican candidates could certainly emerge - and we should keep an eye on former Senator DeWine - but Portman will be treated as the probable nominee in GOP circles, and such a status has obvious financial advantages.

On the other hand, Democrats should not get discouraged by Portman, who he is certainly not the kind of silver bullet whose entry transforms a race (Jeb Bush or Kathleen Sebelius are examples of such silver bullets).

For one, avoiding a competitive, even divisive, primary is not very important in Ohio. Unlike in Missouri and Florida, where the primaries are held late (in early August and early September, respectively), the Ohio primaries are held in the spring. That leaves nominees plenty of time to fix their primary wounds and to then turn their attention to the general election.

(If anything, Democrats lack a candidate with an established statewide name recognition, so a competitive primary could help raise their nominee’s stature while leaving him or her many months to organize a general election campaign.)

Second - and most importantly - Portman faces an obvious electability issue: Not only does he have an extensive (professional and personal) relationship with George W. Bush, but he helped craft the economic policies of the Bush Administration’s second term! In other words, he can be tied in to what voters like least about Bush, and Democrats are sure to have a field day with Portman’s connections to the 43rd President.

Sure, Bush will have been out of office for two years by the time Portman faces voters in 2010. Democrats would be foolish to think they can use Bush as the repellent he was in 2006 and in 2008 races, and they should not waste their time with such a strategy in most congressional races. But Portman’s ties to Bush go far beyond those of almost all other Republican candidates, and he had too much of a role in the Bush Administration to hope for them to be washed away with time.

Portman’s strength could very well depend on the strength of the economy and on the national environment. If the economy is in as disastrous a shape in the fall of 2010, will voters have moved on to blame Barack Obama and will they thus be looking to blame Democrats? Or will Obama have managed to deflect the blame on his predecessors, which could be fatal to Portman’s prospects? Will he have improved the situation just enough for Democrats to look like they are fixing the problems created by Bush?

Given that Portman’s prospects depend on the answers to these questions, it is not surprising that both parties are reacting differently to his entry in the race. On the one hand, Republicans seem ecstatic at the arrival of this savior. On the other hand, Democrats are certainly not panicking and they seem skeptical of the GOP’s enthusiasm. For now, I share that skepticism.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Tim Ryan has acknowledged his interest in the race. State Senate Minority Leader Capri Cafaro, meanwhile, has ruled out a run.

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In other recruitment news, I have updated my newly-created recruitment page with about twenty new names, many of which were suggested by Senate Guru, who is admirably always on top of every Senate story. Thank you to everyone else who passed on suggestions and corrections.