We have been flooded by retirement and recruitment news since the beginning of the year, as incumbents and potential candidates had time to ponder their next move during the holiday season. This seems like a good time to assemble as exhaustive as possible a database of all the politicians we are keeping an eye on for Senate races: Which Senators are being closely monitored, and what potential challengers could emerge?
Retirements
Five Senators are already known to be leaving their seat open in 2010: Kansas’s Brownback, Florida’s Martinez, Missouri’s Bond, Ohio’s Voinovich and Delaware’s Kaufman. At least 12 other Senators are on the retirement list:
| Those we are watching closely | Iowa’s Chuck Grassley Texas’s Kay Bailey Hutchison |
| Those whose retirement would be unexpected but plausible | Illinois’s Roland Burris Oklahoma’s Tom Coburn New Hampshire’s Judd Gregg Arizona’s John McCain Alabama’s Richard Shelby Pennsylvania’s Arlen Specter Louisiana’s David Vitter |
| Those no one trusts * | Kentucky’s Jim Bunning Hawaii’s Daniel Inouye Maryland’s Barbara Mikulski |
[*Inouye, Mikulski and Bunning both announced they would run for re-election in December, but it will take much more for them to be taken off retirement watch given their age and health problems. Don't forget that as long as a congressman has not decided for sure to retire, he rarely admit to be even thinking about it or it will be impossible for him to prepare a re-election campaign, hire staff and find donors.]
There are only three Democrats on this list (Burris, Mikulski and Inouye, the first of which is not even a Senator yet), versus nine Republicans. And that only adds up to the unbalance of the Senators who have already announced their retirement (four Republicans, one Democrat).
Recruitment
Over the past week, we were treated to Jeb Bush and Chris Matthews’s decisions to pass on the Florida and Pennsylvania Senate races, respectively. But we are only getting started, and there are many more people to watch! The problem that could soon arise for Republicans is a vicious circle in which a wave of retirement and recruitment failures leads to more retirements and to more potentially top-tier challengers passing on a run.
I have written in bold the names that attract the most speculation. And this is a work in progress: I have most certainly forgotten many people and I will add any names that I might have forgotten. (You can also check my newly created recruitment page).
| State | Party | Potential candidates |
| AL | Dems (against Shelby) | Rep. Bobby Bright Rep. Artur Davis Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks |
| AK | Dems (against Murkowski) | Ethan Berkowitz state Senator Hollis French former Governor Tony Knowles |
| AK | GOP (against Murkowski) | Governor Sarah Palin |
| AZ | Dems (against McCain) | Rep. Gabrielle Giffords Governor Janet Napolitano (joined Obama’s Cabinet) |
| AZ | GOP (against McCain) | former Rep. J.D. Hayworth |
| AR | GOP (against Lincoln) | prosecutor Tim Griffin (probable candidate) former Governor Mike Huckabee (has ruled it out) |
| CA | GOP (against Boxer) | State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (is running) Carly Fiorina Rep. Tom McClintock Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger |
| CO | GOP (against Bennet) | former Rep. Bob Beauprez former football star John Elway former Rep. McInnis (has expressed interest) former Governor Bill Owens Attorney General John Suthers former Rep. Tom Tancredo |
| CT | GOP (against Dodd) | Governor Jodi Rell (an unlikely prospect) former Rep. Chris Shays Peter Schiff |
| DE | Democrats (open seat) | Attorney General Beau Biden former Lieutenant Governor John Carney |
| DE | GOP (open seat) | Rep. Mike Castle |
| FL | Dems (open seat) | Reps. Allen Boyd (waiting for Sink) former state Senator Dan Gelber (mulling run) Rep. Ron Klein (waiting for Sink) real estate developer Chris Korge Rep. Kendrick Meek (is running) state CFO Alex Sink (mulling run) Rep. Robert Wexler |
| FL | GOP (open seat) | state Senate president Jeff Atwater Rep. Vern Buchanan former Governor Jeb Bush Rep. Connie Mack state Attorney General Bill McCollum former state Speaker Marco Rubio (mulling run) Chief Meddial Officer Marion Thorpe |
| GA | Dems (against Isakson) | Attorney General Thurbert Baker (an unlikely prospect) former Secretary of State Cathy Cox Rep. Jim Marshall (an unlikely prospect) former state Rep. Jim Martin |
| HI | GOP (against Inouye) | Governor Linda Lingle |
| IA | Dems (against Grassley) | Rep. Bruce Braley Ed Fallon Tom Vilsack (joined Cabinet) |
| ID | Dems (against Crapo) | state Senator Nicole LeFevour (ruled it out) |
| IL | GOP (against unknown) | Rep. Mark Kirk Rep. Peter Roskam |
| KS | Dems (open seat) | former Rep. Nancy Boyda Rep. Dennis Moore (an unlikely prospect) Governor Kathleen Sebelius former Rep. Jim Slattery (ruled it out) |
| KS | GOP (open seat) | Rep. Jerry Moran (is running) Rep. Todd Tiahrt (has expressed interest) |
| KY | Dems (against Bunning) | Rep. Ben Chandler Attorney General Jack Conway Auditor Crit Luallen (has express interest) LG Daniel Mongiardo (has expressed interest) |
| LA | Dems (against Vitter) | Jim Bernhard former Governor Kathleen Blanco Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu Rep. Charlie Melancon |
| LA | GOP (against Vitter) | Secretary of State Jay Dardenne Family Research Council President Tony Perkins |
| MO | Dems (open seat) | Attorney General Chris Koster Secretary of State Robin Carnahan Rep. Russ Carnahan |
| MO | GOP (open seat) | Rep. Roy Blunt (entourage has hinted he is in) Rep. Jo Ann Emerson former Rep. Kenny Hulshof Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder Treasurer Sarah Steelman (has expressed interest) former Sen. Jim Talent (entourage has hinted he’s in) |
| NC | Dems (against Burr) | Roy Cooper former Treasurer Richard Moore (has said a run is unlikely) outgoing Governor Mike Easley Secretary of State Elaine Marshall Rep. Heath Shuler (has expressed interest) |
| ND | GOP (against Dorgan) | Governor John Hoeven |
| NH | Dems (against Gregg) | Rep. Paul Hodes (has expressed interest) Governor John Lynch Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (has expressed interest) |
| NV | GOP (against Reid) | Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki former State Sen. Joe Heck Rep. Dean Heller former Rep. Jon Porter |
| NY | GOP (against Paterson’s appointee) | Rep. Peter King (has expressed interest) former Mayor Rudy Giuliani |
| NY | GOP (against Schumer) | No one |
| OH | Dems (open seat) | Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner Attorney General Richard Cordray Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher Rep. Marcy Kaptur Rep. Tim Ryan (has expressed interest) Rep. Zach Space Rep. Betty Sutton |
| OH | GOP (open seat) | former Sen. Mike DeWine former Rep. John Kasich (likely to run for Gov.) former Rep. Rob Portman |
| OK | Dems (against Coburn) | Governor Brad Henry (has said unlikely) state Senator Andrew Rice |
| OR | GOP (against Wyden) | former Senator Gordon Smith |
| PA | Dems (against Specter) | District Attorney Lynne Abraham Chris Matthews state Rep. Dwight Evans Rep. Patrick Murphy (has expressed interest) Rep. Allison Schwarz (has expressed interest) Rep. Joe Sestak (has ruled it out) state Rep. Josh Shapiro Joe Torsella Auditor General Jack Wagner (has expressed interest) Treasurer Robin Wiessmann |
| PA | GOP (against Specter) | former Rep. Pat Toomey (has expressed interest) |
| SC | Dems (against DeMint) | former state party chair Joe Erwin former Governor Jim Hodges Superintendent of Education Jim Rex state Rep. James Smith state Senator Vincent Sheheen former Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum |
| SD | Dems (against Thune) | Rep. Stephanie Herseth (an unlikely prospect) state Senate Minority Leader Scott Heidepriem |
| UT | Dems (against Bennett) | Rep. Jim Matheson (a highly unlikely prospect) |
| VT | GOP (against Leahy) | Governor Jim Douglas (an unlikely prospect) |
| WA | GOP (against Murray) | Rep. Dave Reichert Dino Rossi (unlikely) |
| WI | GOP (against Feingold) | state Attorney General John Van Hollen Rep. Paul Ryan |
Those whose decision we are expecting with the most impatience are: Kathleen Sebelius (KS), Alex Sink (FL), John Hoeven (ND), Pat Toomey (PA), Robin Carnahan (MO), Roy Cooper (NC), Ron Porter (NV), Linda Lingle (HI), Arnold Schwarzenegger (CA).
It’s former Treasurer Richard Moore in NC, not Attorney General.
Nice new design too!
The Dmes have a very deep bench in North Carolina. Easley is very unlikely to run, since Schumer tried to get him in 2008 against Dole and he said he did not want to become a senator becuase there were too many meetings!
Hey, Taniel.
What’s with calling the Lt. Governors like Carney and Mitch Landrieu, Lt. Generals?
As to Louisiana, Jay Dardenne is a Republican (which isn’t to say he couldn’t still run against Vitter).
Interesting General/Governor slip - it’s been corrected, as have Moore’s titles and Dardenne’s party. Thanks!
For Washington, you mean Murray rather than Leahy. Also Davis, In Alabama, has an oddly-spelled first name of Artur (rather than Arthur). But that’s a pretty minor booboo.
Interesting that nobody is listed as a prospect for the Maryland Senate seat. With Sen. Barbara Mikulski likely to run again, that’s just as well.
Even if Mikulski retires, however, a GOP win is a long shot; ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich seems to me to be the only Republican candidate with a decent chance of winning in an open seat situation (he wouldn’t dislodge Mikulski if he tried) and he seems to have disavowed interest in running, at least so far.
As another Marylander, I agree with the implication of Mike in Maryland that former governor Ehrlich is the only Republican in this state at present who might be a fairly serious statewide candidate. But I’d go so far as to say that he’d be very unlikely to defeat a Democratic Senate nominee even if it wasn’t Mikulski. If she retired, I’m sure that there would be a wild scramble among ambitious Democrats in the September primary. Still, it’s a very Democratic state and seems to be getting moreso all the time.