Campaign Diaries

Before even getting the chance to get used to life with 41 Senators, Republicans have to face the prospect of yet another disastrous cycle in 2010. According to Politico and to CNN, Ohio’s Republican Senator George Voinovich is only hours away from announcing his retirement, a development that plunges the GOP in a nightmarish situation.

This is not an unexpected development (Voinovich was always rumored as a potential retiree), but it is nonetheless stunning.

First is the timing: the announcement comes surprisingly early in the cycle, and it follows Missouri Senator Kit Bond’s surprise retirement announcement by only four days. Second is the scope of the troubles Voinovich’s announcement (the fourth retirement in Republican ranks) creates for the GOP.

Just like Missouri’s, Ohio’s Senate seat was already vulnerable prior to this announcement. Democrats were preparing to challenge Voinovich based on their recent successes in the state (Democrats completed a near sweep of statewide offices in 2006 and Barack Obama won the state in the 2008 presidential election). The two-term incumbent knew he could be facing two difficult years of campaigning.

On the other hand, the seat’s vulnerability had less to do with Voinovich himself than with state politics and the national environment. Quite the contrary: Voinovich remains a towering figure of Ohio politics; he did, after all, serve two terms as Governor before moving on to the Senate. (This explains why I ranked Ohio as low as tenth on my Senate rankings.)

In other words, Voinovich’s retirement dramatically aggravates matters for the GOP by removing the one advantage that keeps such seats relatively safe - incumbency. An open seat ensures Democrats have a clear shot at the seat no matter the 2010 national environment. And given Ohio’s recent track record, we cannot blame Republicans if they feel anxious.

To make matters worse, Democrats might very well have a better bench in the Buckeye State. Both parties are sure to field highly credible contenders (this is Ohio, after all), but the Democrats’ quasi-sweep of statewide offices could force the state GOP to turn to some of its old names.

The two Republicans who are the most often mentioned are former Rep. Rob Portman and former Senator Mike DeWine. Both are credible contenders, but both face major problems. Portman is very closely related to the Bush Administration’s economic policy (he served as United States Trade Representative from 2005 to 2006 and as Director of the Office of Management and Budget from 2006 to 2007). DeWine, meanwhile, was crushed by Sherrod Brown in his 2006 re-election race. Sure, that was a disastrous year for Republicans across the country, but the amplitude of DeWine’s loss (11%) raises questions as to his electability.

More generally, Ohio Republicans faced a major crisis in the run up to the 2006 cycle; particularly severe corruption scandals and the dire economic conditions made the state toxic for the GOP. Can the party afford turning to figures from that era?

Democrats, meanwhile, have a number of candidates who could make a credible run. The most often mentioned are Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and Rep. Tim Ryan; the latter is only 35 years old, but he was also mentioned as a top-tier challenger in 2006. Other potential contenders include Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, Attorney General Richard Cordray, Rep. Zach Space and Rep. Marcy Katpur.

Some of these politicians are expected to defer to each other, but it could be hard for Democrats to avoid a divisive primary. But this would not necessarily be as bad a thing as for the GOP in Missouri since Ohio’s congressional primary occurs early, leaving nominees plenty of time to turn their attention to the general election.

Meanwhile, Republicans are stuck waiting for Chuck Grassley or Judd Gregg to announce their plans and left praying that they will not sink even further… We have barely entered in 2009, after all.