Campaign Diaries

A few months ago, it looked fairly certain that Chris Matthews would challenge Senator Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania Senate race. But that certainty was soon replaced by (initially too cynical-sounding) speculation that Matthews was only trying to make himself more desirable to his MSNBC employers in order to have more bargaining chips during contract negotiations.

The fact that we learned more about the likelihood of a Matthews run from NBC executives than from political journalists suggests those rumors weren’t excessively cynical after all, and all speculation ended yesteday when Matthews finally clarified his intentions: Last night, he told the staff of Hardball that he would not run for Senate and would stay at MSNBC instead.

Many were already celebrating Specter-Matthews as the marquee race of the 2010 cycle (despite the fact that neither men was assured of surviving the primary), so Matthews’s decision certainly costs us entertainment-wise. But it is certainly not a setback for Democrats, who undoubtedly have stronger candidates they could field against the incumbent Senator than a somewhat controversial TV host whose only electoral experience is a failed House primary in 1974.

The trouble for Democrats was that many of their potential candidates might have been scared away by the prospect of running against the Matthews show - just as Al Franken’s entry in the Minnesota Senate race in the past cycle sucked the oxygen out of the room for potentially stronger Democrats. (It does look like Franken ended up winning, but I believe that another Democrat could have prevailed more easily.)

If Matthews had jumped in the Senate race, Democrats would have once again risked wasting one of their top pick-up opportunities by letting the celebrity and entertainment factors trumpet other considerations; and Matthews would have come to the Senate race with his share of baggage, starting with years of complaint about the sexism of some of his comments.

With Matthews’s exit, the attention will turn to other Democrats with a lower profile, starting with Rep. Patrick Murphy and Rep. Allyson Schwartz. Both have already acknowledged their interest in the race, and both would be strong contenders. (Here we could potentially find ourselves in a situation where the DCCC and DSCC clash, just as the NRSC and NRCC are expected to clash on Reps. King and Kirk. Schwarz represents a relatively safe district for Democrats, but an open seat in Murphy’s PA-08 would host a competitive race)

Other potential Democratic candidates include state legislators; Rep. Sestak has already ruled out a run. It is worth pointing out that Pennsylvania Democrats have no “dream candidate” whose mere entry would (justifiably or foolishly) strike Republicans with fear! Ed Rendell could be such a candidate, but the two-term Governor has not been attracting that much Senate buzz and he was busy in December trying to push Matthews in the race.

And don’t forget that we are also waiting for Club for Growth President Pat Toomey to announce whether he will run against Arlen Specter in the Republican primary. His decision will arguably be far more important than what any Democrats will have to say (including Matthews).