Regarding NJ, I see a close race, no matter who the GOP nominates. I have to give this race as advantage Corzine, given how well the Dems have done this decade. I agree with Jaxx Raxor (he made a great point) that New Jersey haven’t like their candidates in general–more than any other state. Regarding Corzine, I don’t know for sure, but I doubt if he’s much more unpopular than Menendez or Lautenberg. If the GOP promotes a centrist candidate, I could see them possibly picking up this seat, although this candidate would have to be great at raising money and campaigning. Bottom line, Corzine has an advantage, but it’s not enough to flaunt it.

In NJ, Chris Christie entry is good news for Republicans (compared to the setbacks Senate Republicans have had already…). His reputation as a corruption fighter should certainly help. However Christie is still at a disadvantage, especially compared to McDonell in the Virginia Governor’s race. For one, he still has opponets in the GOP primary. He is overwhelmingly favored to win it thanks to party support, but the conservatives he is up against could still cause rifts with conservative Republicans and hurt Christie either with Conservative Republicans or independents, depending on which direction he goes. Also, as Bobby mentions, there is the money issue. Corzine is personally very wealthy and can spend alot on race, while Christie isn’t as much. If Corzine severely overspends Christie then it will be very difficult for him. Corzine used to be extremly unpopular thanks to the NJ government shutdown, but he has improved a bit as that event has receded in memory. He still seen in a bad light by many in NJ, but of course the people of New Jersey haven’t liked thier politicans in general, probably more than in any other state. Also I believe the Christie is also seen with a similar negative light (althrough why is pretty unknown), so the GOP shouldn’t think they have the race in the bag because of this development. Overall I would say that the NJ Gubernetorial Leans Dem at this time, but it could definitly change if Obama becomes unpopular in D.C.

The guy to watch is Mayor Steve Lonegan. Lonegan has raised over $400,000 and with matching funds, has a warchest of over a million dollars with more than 3,000 donors. Christie, on the other hand, hasn’t raised a dime and has only 3 months to collect $340,000 in “qualifying” donations or he is effectively out of the race. Check out Lonegan at http://www.lonegan.com