Can Alaska Democrats hope to trip up Sarah Palin in 2010? At the very least, they now have a credible candidate for the gubernatorial race: Bob Poe, a former Alaska State Commissioner of Administration.
There is no question that Poe will face a very uphill race, and it is extremely difficult to even conceive of Palin losing in her re-election bid. Ted Stevens’s quasi-survival and Don Young’s victory this past November only increased Alaska’s profile as a staunchly red state, so how could Democrat even hope of forcing Palin to break a sweat?
On the other hand, the Democratic nominee in this race will undoubtedly become one of the better known challengers of the country because of Palin’s profile and her national ambitions. Democrats might rally to his side in the hope of derailing Palin, and the press is likely to cover this race more than it deserves - just as the 2006 New York Senate race got extensive coverage.
Finally, there is a clear benefit for Democrats to fielding a credible candidate, even if there is little to no chance that the incumbent loses. In 2010, Palin is likely to spend as much time as she can traveling across the country to rally the conservative base and raise money for fellow Republicans. Giving her no reason to spend any time in Alaska would free her up to build an extensive national network, just as Barack Obama did during the 2006 midterms.
On the other hand, for Palin to be forced to think about her re-election bid will take time away from those travels; that would hurt other Republican candidates and it will damage her own 2012 prospects.
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Over the past decade, New Jersey Republicans have been as hapless as their New England counterparts. Voters detest Democratic politicians and Trenton’s fishy politics, but they hate the GOP even more - and that allows Democrats to survive September scares cycle after cycle. Republicans are hoping that Governor John Corzine’s re-election race in 2009 finally proves to be their breakthrough; and Corzine, after all, has attracted his own share of controversy over the years.
The GOP just managed to recruit a top-tier candidate, Chris Christie. The former U.S. Attorney attracted attention for prosecuting corruption cases in the state, and that is exactly why Republicans is excited by his candidacy. They hope Christie can come to represent the promise of a clean politics against Trenton’s Democratic establishment, allowing the GOP to improve its image and finally snatch away a statewide victory.
Before setting his sights on Corzine, Christie will first have to survive a contested primary. In the past, primary outcomes have hurt the GOP by eliminating the more electable candidate; but Christie should have enough establishment support to make his way to the general election and he could prove a tough opponent for Corzine. Much will depend on the national environment and whether Corzine has to carry on his shoulders the unpopularity of Washington Democrats on top of that of Trenton Democrats.
You obviously don’t live in New Jersey if you think Chris Christie is anything other than another overhyped blueblood just like the last ten losing candidates the GOP has run.
The guy to watch is Mayor Steve Lonegan. Lonegan has raised over $400,000 and with matching funds, has a warchest of over a million dollars with more than 3,000 donors. Christie, on the other hand, hasn’t raised a dime and has only 3 months to collect $340,000 in “qualifying” donations or he is effectively out of the race. Check out Lonegan at http://www.lonegan.com
Sarah Palin’s approval rating among Democrats in Alaska have plummeted since her stint as the GOP vice presidential nominee, but she is still overwhelmingly popular with Republicans and Independents, and will be near impossible to beat. I don’t even think Democrats will be able to even faze her to the point that she has to camapaign even occassionally in Alaska: it would have to take something major to dent Palin.
In NJ, Chris Christie entry is good news for Republicans (compared to the setbacks Senate Republicans have had already…). His reputation as a corruption fighter should certainly help. However Christie is still at a disadvantage, especially compared to McDonell in the Virginia Governor’s race. For one, he still has opponets in the GOP primary. He is overwhelmingly favored to win it thanks to party support, but the conservatives he is up against could still cause rifts with conservative Republicans and hurt Christie either with Conservative Republicans or independents, depending on which direction he goes. Also, as Bobby mentions, there is the money issue. Corzine is personally very wealthy and can spend alot on race, while Christie isn’t as much. If Corzine severely overspends Christie then it will be very difficult for him. Corzine used to be extremly unpopular thanks to the NJ government shutdown, but he has improved a bit as that event has receded in memory. He still seen in a bad light by many in NJ, but of course the people of New Jersey haven’t liked thier politicans in general, probably more than in any other state. Also I believe the Christie is also seen with a similar negative light (althrough why is pretty unknown), so the GOP shouldn’t think they have the race in the bag because of this development. Overall I would say that the NJ Gubernetorial Leans Dem at this time, but it could definitly change if Obama becomes unpopular in D.C.
I don’t believe any Democrat can defeat Sarah Palin in Alaska. She may alienate all the Democrats in that state, but I doubt that will hurt her much at all. A good/great candidate would probably lose by 15%. A marginal candidate would lose by 35%.
Regarding NJ, I see a close race, no matter who the GOP nominates. I have to give this race as advantage Corzine, given how well the Dems have done this decade. I agree with Jaxx Raxor (he made a great point) that New Jersey haven’t like their candidates in general–more than any other state. Regarding Corzine, I don’t know for sure, but I doubt if he’s much more unpopular than Menendez or Lautenberg. If the GOP promotes a centrist candidate, I could see them possibly picking up this seat, although this candidate would have to be great at raising money and campaigning. Bottom line, Corzine has an advantage, but it’s not enough to flaunt it.