Comments on: As Senate leadership caves on Burris, focus shifts on his electability http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/01/07/as-senate-leadership-caves-on-burris-focus-shifts-on-his-electability/ Obsessive political analysis Fri, 19 Mar 2010 00:16:37 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: st paul sage http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/01/07/as-senate-leadership-caves-on-burris-focus-shifts-on-his-electability/comment-page-1/#comment-5308 st paul sage Thu, 08 Jan 2009 01:50:47 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=5041#comment-5308 shakowsky or hynes could beat burris fairly soundly, but you're right i think they will need to consolidate the anti-burris vote. it's interesting the democrats should run a reformer ticket (madigan-hynes/davis/shakowsky) against the corrupt illinois ticket (blago/burris) then we can do the cleaning up before the GOP does it. shakowsky or hynes could beat burris fairly soundly, but you’re right i think they will need to consolidate the anti-burris vote. it’s interesting the democrats should run a reformer ticket (madigan-hynes/davis/shakowsky) against the corrupt illinois ticket (blago/burris) then we can do the cleaning up before the GOP does it.

]]> By: Jaxx Raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/01/07/as-senate-leadership-caves-on-burris-focus-shifts-on-his-electability/comment-page-1/#comment-5309 Jaxx Raxor Thu, 08 Jan 2009 00:23:22 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=5041#comment-5309 It would be very intersting to see polls on how well Burris does against Kirk (as he is overwhelming considered the strongest candidate for the GOP). In terms of the Democratic primary, if Burris decides to run in 2010, his chances of winning would probably depend on how many opponets he has. One good thing for Burris (and as Taniel has said) is that it is very unlikly that a primary opponent would be an African American, meaning that he would consolidate the African American vote in the primary. If he faces one on one with another Democrat he probably would lose. It is very likely that Burris would be the weakest Democratic candidate in a 2010 election and alot of the non-black electorate in the Democratic party would probably be conasent of the fact. However, if Burris is faced with mulitple opponets, he would probably win on the strength of the black vote while the other candidates divided the white, hispanic, and asian. I would say that if Lisa Madigen faced him in a primary she would win, and it is unlikely other candidates would jump in. Lisa Madigen is probably the strongest candidate for Democrats in the Senate race, probably the only candidate in which Kirk would not be in a toss-up with (more like a lean Democratic at best for Kirk). In terms of the comprasion between Kirk and Roskam and Peter King in New York, one thing to know is that if Kirk was to give up his house seat that Democrats would be heavily favored to win his district, and the NRCC would probably pressure him heavily for to not run for the Senate and give up his seat, especially if Burris was heading to defeat in the Democratic primary. Roskam's district would be vulernable but not by much. While Obama won big in Roskcam's district, it likely more because of favorite son effect then a general Democratic movement, seeing as how it leaned slightly GOP in 2000 and 2004, while Kirk's seat had been Democratic leaning for some time. Peter King's seat would also be vulernable, but the GOP would likely be able to find someone to keep the seat competive. One thing to know is that King has been able to keep the seat despite it's Democratic lean at the presidential level and despite King's conservative profile is because he appeals very well to many Italian Americans who live in the district. It's also important to know that Bush actually beat Kerry in King's district in 2004. Therefore while the seat would be vulernable if it opened up, it wouldn't be a slam dunk for Democrats. It would be very intersting to see polls on how well Burris does against Kirk (as he is overwhelming considered the strongest candidate for the GOP).
In terms of the Democratic primary, if Burris decides to run in 2010, his chances of winning would probably depend on how many opponets he has. One good thing for Burris (and as Taniel has said) is that it is very unlikly that a primary opponent would be an African American, meaning that he would consolidate the African American vote in the primary. If he faces one on one with another Democrat he probably would lose. It is very likely that Burris would be the weakest Democratic candidate in a 2010 election and alot of the non-black electorate in the Democratic party would probably be conasent of the fact. However, if Burris is faced with mulitple opponets, he would probably win on the strength of the black vote while the other candidates divided the white, hispanic, and asian. I would say that if Lisa Madigen faced him in a primary she would win, and it is unlikely other candidates would jump in. Lisa Madigen is probably the strongest candidate for Democrats in the Senate race, probably the only candidate in which Kirk would not be in a toss-up with (more like a lean Democratic at best for Kirk).

In terms of the comprasion between Kirk and Roskam and Peter King in New York, one thing to know is that if Kirk was to give up his house seat that Democrats would be heavily favored to win his district, and the NRCC would probably pressure him heavily for to not run for the Senate and give up his seat, especially if Burris was heading to defeat in the Democratic primary. Roskam’s district would be vulernable but not by much. While Obama won big in Roskcam’s district, it likely more because of favorite son effect then a general Democratic movement, seeing as how it leaned slightly GOP in 2000 and 2004, while Kirk’s seat had been Democratic leaning for some time.
Peter King’s seat would also be vulernable, but the GOP would likely be able to find someone to keep the seat competive. One thing to know is that King has been able to keep the seat despite it’s Democratic lean at the presidential level and despite King’s conservative profile is because he appeals very well to many Italian Americans who live in the district. It’s also important to know that Bush actually beat Kerry in King’s district in 2004. Therefore while the seat would be vulernable if it opened up, it wouldn’t be a slam dunk for Democrats.

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