Democrats should not expect an easy ride in the election to fill the reminder of Hillary Clinton’s term. New York Republicans have been moribund over the past decade, but they could muster just enough strength to make this race competitive.
This is especially the case if Governor David Paterson appoints a vulnerable Senator, and Caroline Kennedy is certainly high on the GOP’s wish list. The AP reported last week that Paterson had already made up his mind to appoint Kennedy, but her roll out over the past month was so rough that it would have been enough to eliminate anyone but JFK’s daughter.
In a sad echo of Sarah Palin’s struggles in September, Kennedy showed herself unprepared to step under the spotlight, unengaged with policy debates. She struggled to keep an even tone in her public appearances and press interviews, with a testy exchange with The New York Times and some bizarre upstate incidents. The Mayor of Rochester, for instance, expressed his surprise at Kennedy’s silence during her visit to Democratic headquarters; that is certainly not a disqualifying factor, but it certainly puts in question Kennedy’s campaigning skills.
The result is brutal: A new poll taken by Public Policy Polling shows a dramatic drop in Kennedy’s popularity. On December 9th, 75% of New York Democrats had a favorable opinion of the former first daughter, and 11% had an unfavorable view; in this new survey, her favorability rating has dropped to 57% and her unfavorability has risen to 35%.
Worse still, a head-to-head match-up with Andrew Cuomo shows that 54% of Democrats want Cuomo to be appointed Senator, while 34% want Kennedy; a month ago, Kennedy led 44% to 23%. That’s a stunning turn-around of 41% - and things get even worse among New Yorkers at large (not just Democrats): There, 58% prefer Cuomo and 27% choose Kennedy. Similarly, 44% of respondents say their opinion of Kennedy has declined since she announced her interest in the Senate seat; only 23% say it has improved.
Just like with a certain Governor from a Northern state, Kennedy is becoming less popular the more voters hear from her. This might not matter one bit for the purpose of becoming Senator (only David Paterson’s opinion matters, and the Governor isn’t necessarily interested in what polls have to say), but it does matter a great deal for the 2010 Senate race. If Kennedy is selected and has a rough 2009, these numbers suggest that it would leave an opening for a credible Republican to make her sweat. (This would especially be the case if Kennedy commits any blunder in her trips to upstate New York.)
Of course, for the GOP to have a chance first requires them to find a credible candidate who can raise sufficient funds, and they have a particularly thin bench in New York. The first name that is being floated is that of Rudy Giuliani, the former Mayor and failed presidential candidate. Giuliani is keeping his name in the news, but he is considered more likely to jump in the gubernatorial race than in a Senate contest. Furthermore, Giuliani’s past two electoral campaigns have been disastrous, and I am not at all convinced he could mount a strong challenge for either office.
The second name is that of Rep. Peter King, one of the last three Republicans in New York’s House delegation. King has said that he would declare his intentions shortly after Paterson announces his decision, and the NRSC is now in full lobbying mode. New NRSC Chair John Cornyn just met with King yesterday, trying to convince him to jump in the Senate race; the topic that is discussed the most at such meeting is financial commitment, and it looks like King would be likely to jump in if he gets some assurance that the NRSC will back his candidacy.
King would start a general election as the clear underdog, but he could make the race competitive by playing the card of the white ethnic Catholic populism that has helped other Republicans win in New York (starting with Rudy Giuliani) and that could especially help him upstate. That card could be especially effective against Kennedy if Republicans manage to portray her appointment as a mixture of nepotism, elitism and incompetence.
(King’s candidacy is a fascinating case in which the NRSC and NRCC are expected to clash, as it would be bad news for House Republicans if King were to leave the lower chamber; the seat is a blue-trending swing district and Democrats would love the chance of an open seat race. You can expect the NRCC to be lobbying King to remain in the House just as furiously as Cornyn is trying to seduce him into a statewide run.)
Peter King, in all fairness, has backbone that’s been missing with many of his congressional counterparts. I don’t think he’ll win in NY, but he’s probably their best candidate.
MSW, I agree that King would be the strongest candidate for the GOP in NY, but at the same time I also agree that he probably couldn’t win. NY is a heavily Democratic state, which despite Caroline Kennedy’s very shaky rollout, gives her alot of wiggle room. Also, that she is JFK’s daughter will make it all but harder. If Rudy hadn’t been damaged so much since his Mayoral election he probably would have been a stronger candidate but he probably would have preferred a run for Governor in that instance anyway. For a Democrat to lose in NY in a senate race would require them to lose big in Upstate New York. King would probably only win Staten Island in NYC (which is standard for the GOP) and would need to overwhelming win the rest of New York State to make up major losses in the rest of NYC. And for that to happen Kennedy would have to extremely imcompetent, something which I’m not sure she has gone through yet.