Republican Senator Mel Martinez’s mid-November retirement depressed many Democrats, who were convinced that the GOP would find a stronger candidate to run in an open seat race. Democrats were particularly concerned that former Governor Jeb Bush would jump in the race and prove too formidable a contender.
This afternoon, Jeb dropped out of the biggest early bombshells of the 2010 cycle by announcing that he would not run for Senate. Even though I was never convinced by Republican arguments that he would not be weighed down by his brother’s unpopularity, this decision is undoubtedly a significant setback for the GOP.
First, only Jeb had enough of a stature to clear the GOP field. Now, a number of Republicans are expected to jump in the race, starting with former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, state Attorney General Bill McCollum, Rep. Connie Mack and state Senate president Jeff Atwater. All of these Republicans are strong contenders who could win a general election, but a crowded primary could hurt their chances: Florida’s primary is held late (in September), and that leaves very little time for a nominee to recover from primary bruises.
It is possible that Jeb will use his political muscle to unite the Republican establishment around a single candidate, who would most likely be Rubio, a close Bush ally. (In fact, it is Rubio who first broke the news of Jeb’s withdrawal.) The problem with this scenario is that current Governor Charlie Crist is no close friend of Jeb and it is unlikely that Crist would allow his predecessor to impose his wll on the state he is now the one governing.
Second, only Jeb had enough of a stature to scare prominent Democrats away. Whether or not he was as formidable as Republicans said, his candidacy could have been enough to keep Democratic state CFO Alex Sink out of the race. Sink, who is the DSCC’s top choice, is said to be eying the 2014 gubernatorial race, and she would probably stay away from a Senate contest if it were to look too difficult. Now that Jeb is not running, Sink is much more likely to jump in the race - and she would probably look formidable enough to keep other Democrats from jumping in. That could guarantee that a unified Democratic Party would face a divided GOP, dramatically increasing the chances of a blue take-over.
If Sink were to decline a run, Democrats have other good options like Reps. Allen Boyd and Ron Klein. Just like Sink, those two congressmen are far more likely to jump in the race with Jeb Bush out of it.
In brief, today’s news is the first big setback for Republicans in the 2010 cycle.
Note that Democrats could soon get a prominent withdrawal of their own. Jim Matthews is hinting that his brother Chris is unlikely to run for Arlen Specter’s Senate seat. “I would be stunned beyond words if he does anything besides but look forward tomorrow to going to work,” said Jim. He also confirmed the speculation that his brother had renewed his contract with MSNBC. I have already stated my skepticism at Chris Matthews’s candidacy, so I believe this would be a good development for Democrats.
I’ve said for a few years that the Bush dynasty would next run Jebby’s son, George P. Bush, for elected office with their sights set on an eventual run for the presidency.
You see, the Bush dynasty treats the presidency as of it’s the family business. They’re like a virus feeding off the carcass of America.
Of course, the destruction to this country by George W. Bush and his historic unpopularity may have made it more challenging for them to set their sights on 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. At least in the shirt term.
Well, Jeb not running removes the GOP’s best candidate, but hardly their only winnable candidate. To call deciding not to run a “bombshell” is more than a slight exaggeration since the election is about 2 years away and the Republicans are still more likely than not to keep the seat. The new chatter definitely appears to be on Rubio. Young, conservative, Latino, and from south Florida. If Jeb decides to throw his endorsement and campaign connections to Rubio, I don’t see how Christ could prevent that, unless he endorses someone else, or runs for the seat himself. And if Jeb were to endorse, you can bet the NRSC would follow. The Democrats have Sink, and a weak bench after that. Florida is still pretty red at the state level, and in 2010 Obama will not be on the ticket, but Christ will be.
Bush’s decision not to run makes some sense if he wants to run for POTUS in 2016; or 2012 if Obama tanks. In 2016 he will be only 63.
Being a junior Senator in a minority party will only mean that he will cast a large number of votes that will come back to haunt him in a future presidential race. He can now spend the next eight years preparing for his campaign.
I expect he will be campaigning and fundraising for Republican candidates thus collecting the IOU’s he needs for the race. He will also appear on the media as a pundit and commentator.
Let’s see how long it is before he shows up in Iowa. That will tell us how serious he is about running for POTUS in the future.
It’s too early to tell who has the advantage between the Democrats and Republicans for this Senate seat. If the economy continues to tank, and the retirement community feels the pinch, I can see the GOP keeping the seat. Right now its anybody’s guess.