Comments on: 2010: Frist’s exit from Gov race leads to open TN-03; new rumors surround Sebelius http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/01/05/frist-sebelius/ Obsessive political analysis Sat, 20 Mar 2010 08:13:15 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: MSW http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/01/05/frist-sebelius/comment-page-1/#comment-5280 MSW Tue, 06 Jan 2009 14:25:12 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=4959#comment-5280 How about Harold Ford Jr.? Although he lost to Corker in 2006, his voting record is at best moderate. He's probably not interested in pursuing this race, but I can't help but think he'd make a good governor. How about Harold Ford Jr.? Although he lost to Corker in 2006, his voting record is at best moderate. He’s probably not interested in pursuing this race, but I can’t help but think he’d make a good governor.

]]> By: Rick http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/01/05/frist-sebelius/comment-page-1/#comment-5279 Rick Tue, 06 Jan 2009 05:04:43 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=4959#comment-5279 Republicans are probably favored to take over the governorships in Kansas, Wyoming, Tennessee and possibly Oklahoma depending on the candidates. Democrats are favored to take Rhode Island, California, and Hawaii. Republicans have no bench in Maine and Democrat Tom Allen is probably the frontrunner there. Republicans dont have much of a chance in Oregon either. Democrats could screw up in Democratic leaning states like Michigan and Pennsylvania if Republicans nominate a good candidate(they have a few). Republicans are probably favored to take over the governorships in Kansas, Wyoming, Tennessee and possibly Oklahoma depending on the candidates. Democrats are favored to take Rhode Island, California, and Hawaii. Republicans have no bench in Maine and Democrat Tom Allen is probably the frontrunner there. Republicans dont have much of a chance in Oregon either.

Democrats could screw up in Democratic leaning states like Michigan and Pennsylvania if Republicans nominate a good candidate(they have a few).

]]> By: Jaxx Raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/01/05/frist-sebelius/comment-page-1/#comment-5281 Jaxx Raxor Mon, 05 Jan 2009 18:22:59 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=4959#comment-5281 Tennesse won't be a cakewalk for Republicans: Lincoln Davis has announced he would run and his district (TN-4) leans slightly Republican, so he would be formidable candidate to hold the Governship for the Democrats, no matter if it's against Wamp or anyone else. However, it just goes to show that it is the Governorships where Republicans are likely to have the most sucess in 2010. Unlike the Senate, where they are once again likely to get a net gain of seats, and in the House, where they may finally get a net gain of seats but only 1-5, many Democratic held govenorships are vulernable to GOP takeover, almost exclusively because of term limits for (often popular) Democratic incumbents. The number of GOP and Democratic incumbents who are term limited are equal, but the seats the Democrats are vacating (Kansas and Wyoming in particiular) are much more vulernable to take over and there are more of them. In addition to Kansas and Wyoming there is Tennesee, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, Maine, and perhaps even Oregan (althrough that be harder for the GOP). And of course the GOP will get a freebie in Arizona onces Napelentio resigns to become Secretary of Homeland Security. In terms of open GOP held seats, the Democrats would be strongly favored in California and perhaps Hawaii, and in a toss-up in Rhode Island, but the other races are too conservative for Democrats to compete in. Tennesse won’t be a cakewalk for Republicans: Lincoln Davis has announced he would run and his district (TN-4) leans slightly Republican, so he would be formidable candidate to hold the Governship for the Democrats, no matter if it’s against Wamp or anyone else.

However, it just goes to show that it is the Governorships where Republicans are likely to have the most sucess in 2010. Unlike the Senate, where they are once again likely to get a net gain of seats, and in the House, where they may finally get a net gain of seats but only 1-5, many Democratic held govenorships are vulernable to GOP takeover, almost exclusively because of term limits for (often popular) Democratic incumbents. The number of GOP and Democratic incumbents who are term limited are equal, but the seats the Democrats are vacating (Kansas and Wyoming in particiular) are much more vulernable to take over and there are more of them. In addition to Kansas and Wyoming there is Tennesee, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, Maine, and perhaps even Oregan (althrough that be harder for the GOP). And of course the GOP will get a freebie in Arizona onces Napelentio resigns to become Secretary of Homeland Security. In terms of open GOP held seats, the Democrats would be strongly favored in California and perhaps Hawaii, and in a toss-up in Rhode Island, but the other races are too conservative for Democrats to compete in.

]]>