Tennessee’s governorship is one of the GOP’s top pick-up opportunities in 2010, as the Democratic Governor cannot run for re-election due to term limit laws. The Republican nomination was Bill Frist’s for the taking; the former Senator has enough of a stature to clear the primary field, and everyone was waiting for him to announce his intentions.
Yesterday, Frist issued a statement announcing he will not run. “After significant reflection and conversation with loved ones, I have decided to remain a private citizen for the foreseeable future,” he wrote. (In the previous cycle, Frist had also passed on a presidential run many people expected him to launch.)
The GOP certainly has a strong bench in a state that has dramatically swung red over the past decade - so much so that it will be very difficult for Democrats to retain the governorship. That makes the Republican nomination that much more attractive, and Frist’s move leaves it wide open.
Within 24 hours of Frist’s statement, GOP Rep. Zach Wamp came out to announce that he was a candidate. He is expected to face a competitive primary, with Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam as a possible opponent.
Wamp is a powerful player in the House since he has a seat on the coveted Appropriations Committee, so his quick decision leaves little doubt that he is confident he can move in the Governor’s mansion; it also suggests that prolonged life in the minority is not looking attractive to Republican congressmen.
Wamp’s move also means that TN-03 becomes one of the first open seats of the 2010 cycle. Unfortunately for Democrats, it is very difficult to envision them mounting a competitive run. The district is very conservative, and it gave George Bush 61% of the vote in 2004. (The 2008 results aren’t available yet, but we know that McCain crushed Obama in each of the eight counties that make up the district.)
Of course, an open seat always gives the challenging party a glimmer of hope of pulling an AL-02-like upset, so a competitive race cannot be ruled out. But the GOP has little to worry about for now.
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Kansas’s open Senate seat is currently ranked eleventh in my Senate rankings, but we already know that this race will not end up in that second-tier range. If Governor Kathleen Sebelius jumps in, the race will move near the top of the rankings; if she passes on the race, Democrats will have little to no hope of picking up the seat.
Sebelius’s decision to withdraw her name from Cabinet considerations boosted the DSCC’s hopes of recruiting her, but her name has now popped up in an entirely different arena: The Topeka Capital Journal reports that Sebelius is being considered as a possible chancellor for the University of Kansas.
Current Chancellor Robert Hemenway announced that he would retire at the end for the current academic year on December 8th, just two days after Sebelius said she was no longer looking for a Cabinet appointment. It goes without saying that Sebelius leaving the governorship to work at KU would also bar a Senate run.
The search committee was just formed last week, so Hemenway’s successor will not be announced any time soon. If Sebelius is actually interested in this position, she will likely put off deciding on a Senate run until later this year.
Tennesse won’t be a cakewalk for Republicans: Lincoln Davis has announced he would run and his district (TN-4) leans slightly Republican, so he would be formidable candidate to hold the Governship for the Democrats, no matter if it’s against Wamp or anyone else.
However, it just goes to show that it is the Governorships where Republicans are likely to have the most sucess in 2010. Unlike the Senate, where they are once again likely to get a net gain of seats, and in the House, where they may finally get a net gain of seats but only 1-5, many Democratic held govenorships are vulernable to GOP takeover, almost exclusively because of term limits for (often popular) Democratic incumbents. The number of GOP and Democratic incumbents who are term limited are equal, but the seats the Democrats are vacating (Kansas and Wyoming in particiular) are much more vulernable to take over and there are more of them. In addition to Kansas and Wyoming there is Tennesee, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, Maine, and perhaps even Oregan (althrough that be harder for the GOP). And of course the GOP will get a freebie in Arizona onces Napelentio resigns to become Secretary of Homeland Security. In terms of open GOP held seats, the Democrats would be strongly favored in California and perhaps Hawaii, and in a toss-up in Rhode Island, but the other races are too conservative for Democrats to compete in.
Republicans are probably favored to take over the governorships in Kansas, Wyoming, Tennessee and possibly Oklahoma depending on the candidates. Democrats are favored to take Rhode Island, California, and Hawaii. Republicans have no bench in Maine and Democrat Tom Allen is probably the frontrunner there. Republicans dont have much of a chance in Oregon either.
Democrats could screw up in Democratic leaning states like Michigan and Pennsylvania if Republicans nominate a good candidate(they have a few).
How about Harold Ford Jr.? Although he lost to Corker in 2006, his voting record is at best moderate. He’s probably not interested in pursuing this race, but I can’t help but think he’d make a good governor.