Comments on: Richardson and Kaine: The contrasting fortunes of two governors http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/01/04/richardson-and-kaine-the-contrasting-fortunes-of-two-governors/ Obsessive political analysis Thu, 18 Mar 2010 05:07:46 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Teezy http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/01/04/richardson-and-kaine-the-contrasting-fortunes-of-two-governors/comment-page-1/#comment-5278 Teezy Mon, 05 Jan 2009 20:15:37 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=5004#comment-5278 Does anyone know what Howard Dean will be doing? I'm fairly baffled at his current situation. After two extremely successful election cycles as head of the DNC he appears to be leaving public service. The press has reported that his relations with Rahm, Obama, Pelsoi, & Reid have been chilly, but Dean has to be given a significant part of the credit for the recent Dem successes in Congress. He used a 50-state strategy that laid the groundwork for the Dems to take greater advantage of a collapsing GOP. If only the next RNC chair could be so successful! Dean was left off the Obama cabinet, no VT Senate seat will be open for several years, I guess he could challenge Douglas to retake the governorship, but that seems unlikely. Was he shut-out by the Washington insiders or is he taking a voluntary exit from the public stage? Does anyone know what Howard Dean will be doing? I’m fairly baffled at his current situation. After two extremely successful election cycles as head of the DNC he appears to be leaving public service. The press has reported that his relations with Rahm, Obama, Pelsoi, & Reid have been chilly, but Dean has to be given a significant part of the credit for the recent Dem successes in Congress. He used a 50-state strategy that laid the groundwork for the Dems to take greater advantage of a collapsing GOP. If only the next RNC chair could be so successful! Dean was left off the Obama cabinet, no VT Senate seat will be open for several years, I guess he could challenge Douglas to retake the governorship, but that seems unlikely. Was he shut-out by the Washington insiders or is he taking a voluntary exit from the public stage?

]]> By: Jaxx Raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/01/04/richardson-and-kaine-the-contrasting-fortunes-of-two-governors/comment-page-1/#comment-5277 Jaxx Raxor Mon, 05 Jan 2009 13:37:36 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=5004#comment-5277 It is true that Kaine wouldn't be a shoo in, but at the same time he would be a strong candidate in 2013 as a former governor with decent approval rating. Warner definitly would have strongly favored had he skipped the 2008 Senate race and ran in the 2009 Virginia race instead. He wouldn't have beaten Attorney General McConnell by as big a margin but a win would have probably been in the high or double digits. On the other hand, if Warner had been running, McConnell probably would have just stuck with running for reelection as attorny general and not bothered running. In terms of Terry McAulliffe, I think he is going to have a pretty hard time. Brian Moran and Craig Deeds are well known among Virginia Democrats and the convention wisdom (comfirmed by an early poll by Rasmussen) is that Moran and Deeds would be in toss-ups against McDonnell while McAulliffe would run slightly behind. That Moran and Deeds seem to fill the liberal and conservative wings of the VA Democratic party respectivfully, it's hard for McAuliffe to fit anywhere, and the fact that he would the weakest candiate is probably the greatest motivation for McAuliffe, despite the large amount of money he may have. What he may just end up doing is helping either Moran or Deeds by splitting the other guy's support (most likely Deeds because McAuliffe is a New Democrat, but he is more Liberal than Deeds so maybe it can be the other way around). It's unlikely that Moran and Deed's supporters would split in a away that allows McAuliffe to win by plurarity, if only because Moran and Deeds are on pretty good terms (Moran didn't run for Attorny General in 2005 becasue he wanted Deeds to). It is true that Kaine wouldn’t be a shoo in, but at the same time he would be a strong candidate in 2013 as a former governor with decent approval rating. Warner definitly would have strongly favored had he skipped the 2008 Senate race and ran in the 2009 Virginia race instead. He wouldn’t have beaten Attorney General McConnell by as big a margin but a win would have probably been in the high or double digits. On the other hand, if Warner had been running, McConnell probably would have just stuck with running for reelection as attorny general and not bothered running.

In terms of Terry McAulliffe, I think he is going to have a pretty hard time. Brian Moran and Craig Deeds are well known among Virginia Democrats and the convention wisdom (comfirmed by an early poll by Rasmussen) is that Moran and Deeds would be in toss-ups against McDonnell while McAulliffe would run slightly behind. That Moran and Deeds seem to fill the liberal and conservative wings of the VA Democratic party respectivfully, it’s hard for McAuliffe to fit anywhere, and the fact that he would the weakest candiate is probably the greatest motivation for McAuliffe, despite the large amount of money he may have. What he may just end up doing is helping either Moran or Deeds by splitting the other guy’s support (most likely Deeds because McAuliffe is a New Democrat, but he is more Liberal than Deeds so maybe it can be the other way around). It’s unlikely that Moran and Deed’s supporters would split in a away that allows McAuliffe to win by plurarity, if only because Moran and Deeds are on pretty good terms (Moran didn’t run for Attorny General in 2005 becasue he wanted Deeds to).

]]> By: Guy http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/01/04/richardson-and-kaine-the-contrasting-fortunes-of-two-governors/comment-page-1/#comment-5276 Guy Mon, 05 Jan 2009 01:41:26 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=5004#comment-5276 I could understand Warner running again for Governor, if he had not run and won the senate seat because he left with high approval marks. Kaine on the other hand has average approval ratings so would not be a shoo-in for 2013. I could understand Warner running again for Governor, if he had not run and won the senate seat because he left with high approval marks. Kaine on the other hand has average approval ratings so would not be a shoo-in for 2013.

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