The first week-end of 2009 brought contrasting news for two close allies of Barack Obama. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson was forced to withdraw his nomination for Secretary of Commerce while Virginia Governor Tim Kaine will become the new chair of the DNC.
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Senate hearings have yet to start, but we already know that even Obama’s very extensive vetting process failed to prevent one of his Cabinet appointees from falling to a scandal, something that happens in most presidential transitions but that his team had worked painstakingly hard to avoid.
The former presidential candidate was one of the top contenders for State, but Hillary Clinton’s reconciliation with Obama landed him in Commerce instead - a choice that was celebrated as yet another of the President-elect’s attempts to build a team of rivals. Yet, Richardson was soon hit by the news that a grand jury was investigating pay-to-play allegation involving Richardson and a company that won a New Mexico contract.
Today, Richardson told to NBC News that this investigation prevented him from accepting Barack Obama’s designation. “I have concluded that the ongoing investigation also would have forced an untenable delay in the confirmation process,” he said. This was an unexpected development considering that very little information has leaked about the grand jury’s proceedings and that the scandal was not considered threatening enough to damage Richardson’s prospects or confirmation prospects.
In fact, most articles written in the past few weeks (even after news of the Richardson investigation surfaced) continued to identify Attorney General-designate Eric Holder as the Cabinet appointee likely to face the most raucous hearings.
Richardson’s appointment was the one Obama appointment that had good consequences for Democrats in down-the-ballot races. Due to term-limits, Richardson is not allowed to run for re-election, but Democratic Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish would have taken over and been able to run as an incumbent in 2010 had Richardson left for Washington.
Richardson might still be forced to leave the governorship early if this scandal still takes larger proportions, but he said today that he would stay in office. This means that Denish’s path to higher office is blocked and that she should prepare to run for an open seat - always a harder endeavor.
This also means that Obama still has a Cabient position to fill. He could potentially choose yet another Democratic Senator and Governor, create an opportunity or complications for down-the-ballot Democrats and force us to revisit my list of the electoral consequences of Obama’s Cabinet picks.
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Tim Kaine got better news, however: Obama finally tapped him for something.
The Virginia Governor was on the final short list in the Democratic veepstakes and he was mentioned as a possible Cabinet pick. Despite being one of the earliest officials to endorse Obama in 2007, he was never chosen - perhaps because his selection would have elevated a Republican as Governor.
Now, The Washington Post is reporting that Kaine has been chosen to serve as DNC Chairman over the next four years. (A president traditionally gets to impose his choice to chair the DNC or RNC, so this is essentially Obama’s decision.)
Kaine will not have to give up the governorship and will serve out his term, which ends in 12 months. Kaine is barred from running for re-election anyway, so he will be a full-time DNC Chairman starting in 2010. In other words, Kaine becoming DNC Chairman will have no (direct) consequences on this coming’s November’s gubernatorial race.
Some Democrats might worry that Kaine’s taking on a far more partisan role could lower his approval ratings and thus make it more difficult for the Democratic nominee to win the governorship. On the other hand, that Kaine is ready to take on such a position only serves as further confirmation of Virginia’s swing to the Democratic column. This is a far bluer state than the one that made Governors out of Mark Warner and Tim Kaine in 2001 and 2005, and that should help the Democratic nominee over the next eleven months.
Obama’s choice also temporarily settles the question of Kaine’s political future. Virginia bars governors from serving two consecutive terms, but Tim Kaine had no obvious next step to take. The state’s two Senators are already Democrats, and neither is close to retirement; Kaine had been passed over for the vice-presidentship and Cabinet positions. Without an obvious next outlet, it was likely that he would make his way into the private sector.
But this stint at the DNC will keep him in the public eye for the next four years and perhaps make him a contender for Virginia’s 2013 gubernatorial election, in which Kaine will be eligible: He will finish his term as DNC Chairman just in time to announce his candidacy to get his old job back. And how is this for a sign: Former DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe just officially announced that he was running for Virginia Governor today.
I could understand Warner running again for Governor, if he had not run and won the senate seat because he left with high approval marks. Kaine on the other hand has average approval ratings so would not be a shoo-in for 2013.
It is true that Kaine wouldn’t be a shoo in, but at the same time he would be a strong candidate in 2013 as a former governor with decent approval rating. Warner definitly would have strongly favored had he skipped the 2008 Senate race and ran in the 2009 Virginia race instead. He wouldn’t have beaten Attorney General McConnell by as big a margin but a win would have probably been in the high or double digits. On the other hand, if Warner had been running, McConnell probably would have just stuck with running for reelection as attorny general and not bothered running.
In terms of Terry McAulliffe, I think he is going to have a pretty hard time. Brian Moran and Craig Deeds are well known among Virginia Democrats and the convention wisdom (comfirmed by an early poll by Rasmussen) is that Moran and Deeds would be in toss-ups against McDonnell while McAulliffe would run slightly behind. That Moran and Deeds seem to fill the liberal and conservative wings of the VA Democratic party respectivfully, it’s hard for McAuliffe to fit anywhere, and the fact that he would the weakest candiate is probably the greatest motivation for McAuliffe, despite the large amount of money he may have. What he may just end up doing is helping either Moran or Deeds by splitting the other guy’s support (most likely Deeds because McAuliffe is a New Democrat, but he is more Liberal than Deeds so maybe it can be the other way around). It’s unlikely that Moran and Deed’s supporters would split in a away that allows McAuliffe to win by plurarity, if only because Moran and Deeds are on pretty good terms (Moran didn’t run for Attorny General in 2005 becasue he wanted Deeds to).
Does anyone know what Howard Dean will be doing? I’m fairly baffled at his current situation. After two extremely successful election cycles as head of the DNC he appears to be leaving public service. The press has reported that his relations with Rahm, Obama, Pelsoi, & Reid have been chilly, but Dean has to be given a significant part of the credit for the recent Dem successes in Congress. He used a 50-state strategy that laid the groundwork for the Dems to take greater advantage of a collapsing GOP. If only the next RNC chair could be so successful! Dean was left off the Obama cabinet, no VT Senate seat will be open for several years, I guess he could challenge Douglas to retake the governorship, but that seems unlikely. Was he shut-out by the Washington insiders or is he taking a voluntary exit from the public stage?