Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 512

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 527

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 534

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 570

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::start_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::start_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::end_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::end_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::end_el() should be compatible with Walker::end_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_PageDropdown::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1244

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::start_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::start_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::end_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::end_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::end_el() should be compatible with Walker::end_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_CategoryDropdown::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1442

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class wpdb in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/wp-db.php on line 306

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/cache.php on line 103

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class WP_Object_Cache in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/cache.php on line 431

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/query.php on line 61

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/theme.php on line 1109

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::start_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::start_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::end_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::end_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::end_el() should be compatible with Walker::end_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class WP_Dependencies in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/class.wp-dependencies.php on line 31

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class WP_Http in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/http.php on line 61

Strict Standards: Non-static method K2::init() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/functions.php on line 31

Strict Standards: Non-static method K2::register_scripts() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 51

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2Options::init() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 339

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2Header::init() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 339

Strict Standards: Non-static method K2Header::get_header_width() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/header.php on line 8

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::filter_post_comments() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 166

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458
2009 January Archive at Campaign Diaries
Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2Header::output_header_css() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 339

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003


Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
Monthly Archive for January, 2009


Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

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Polls find unpredictable Senate races in Illinois, Florida

Florida’s Senate race is arguably the most confusing of all 2010 contests. Not only are the primary fields of both parties are in flux, but most high-profile contenders (Jeb Bush, Alex Sink, Bill McCollum) have declined a run - leaving politicians with little statewide name recognition.

Both of these problems make Research 2000’s poll of Florida’s Senate race somewhat useless. For one, the survey included McCollum and Rep. Allen Boyd - both of which announced they would not run while the poll was in the field. Second, of the six candidates tested, only Charlie Crist and Bill McCollum ring enough of a bell for their number to be meaningful. That said, there are some interesting tidbits to be found.

  • If Governor Charlie Crist jumps in the race (which is considered an unlikely prospect, but the NRSC is trying to lure him in), he would be the overwhelming favorite to win the Senate race. Not only does he enjoy an amazingly high favorability rating (65% versus 23%), but he also crushes all Democratic opponents: 49% to 28% against Rep. Kendrick Meek, 52% to 26% against Boyd, and 52% to 21% against state Senator Gelber.
  • Bill McCollum - the only other candidate known by more than a third of voters - also crushes Democratic opponents (by 16% against Meek, by 20% against Boyd, by 28% against Gelber). Part of this should be attributed to his higher name recognition, but McCollum enjoys a strong favorability rating: 42% to 23%.
  • Finally, Research 2000 tested Marco Rubio - the most likely among these three Republicans to be the GOP’s general election nominee. Rubio’s name recognition is low, though negative (11% to 18%) and he trails two of the Democrats: 31% to 22% against Meek, 29% to 22% against Boyd, 23% to 23% against Gelber. There are so many respondents who are undecided in these three match-ups that it is hard to make much of these numbers.

These numbers teach us two things. First, the NRSC is right to try to recruit Charlie Crist. His entry in the race would be the best news Senate Republicans could get this cycle and it could very well leave Florida out of the list of competitive Senate races. On the other hand, it would open up the gubernatorial race.

Second, the race is wide open if Crist does not jump in - and we probably will not know what to make of it until well into 2010. To the extent that the match-ups involving Rubio pitted against each other candidates with equally low name recognition, they reveal just how unpredictable the race is because of the humongous number of undecided voters.

Research 2000 also tested the Illinois Senate race, where Democrat Roland Burris will face voters for the first time since he was appointed by Rod Blagojevich.

The first issue, of course, is the Democratic primary - and there is certainly an opening for potential Burris challengers:

  • Burris’s favorability rating is mediocre, with 35% holding a favorable opinion and 35% an unfavorable one. Rep. Schakowsky, by contrast, has a positive rating of 33% to 10%; state Treasurer Giannoulias does too, 36% to 15%.
  • In a primary match-up, Burris leads with 26% versus 12% for Schakowky and 11% for Giannoulias.

Needless to say, for an incumbent to get a quarter of the vote in a primary match-up is a sign of great weakness, and the fact that his two potential opponents have far lower name recognition than he does limit their numbers. If either Schakowsky or Giannoulias jumps in the race, Burris will be greatly endangered. (On the other hand, he would be in a better position than expected if both jump in.)

The second issue is the general election, and all three of these Democrats lead against their potential Republican contenders - Rep. Kirk and Rep. Roskam:

  • Kirk is heralded as a promising candidate for Republicans, but his favorability rating is not very good: 37% hold a favorable view of him, versus 41%. Roskam is not as well known (19% favorable, 23% unfavorable).
  • Burris leads Kirk 37% to 30%; he leads Roskam 38% to 25%. Those are good showings for a politician who has just gone through as much press as Burris has - but any incumbent under 50% is vulnerable, let alone one who is under 40%.
  • Schakowsky also leads Kirk (36% to 30%) and Roskam (37% to 25%), as does Giannoulias (38% to 30% and 38% to 25%).

What is absolutely fascinating is that Kirk and Roskam get the same amount of support against all three Democrats - 30% for Kirk and 25% for Roskam. That is a particularly disappointing level of support for Kirk, who has a far higher level of name recognition than any of the three Democrats (including Burris), and it suggests any Republican (even one with a moderate reputation) will face great difficulties winning the race.


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Steele’s party

Yesterday, Maryland’s former Lieutenant Governor Mike Steele became the new NRC Chairman, defeating South Carolina Republican Party Chair Katon Dawson in the sixth round of balloting. Earlier ballots had led to the withdrawal of other high-profile candidate, including current Chairman Mike Duncan.

Getting elected was the easy party. Steele now faces the quite daunting task of rebuilding an unpopular party that is locked out of the White House and is in a deep hole in both chambers of Congress.

What does Steele’s victory mean for American politics and for the future of the Republican Party?

The most appropriate answer, of course, is that there is no way to know before we see Steele at work. Maryland’s former Lieutenant Governor is no RNC insider and he has a somewhat conflicted relationship with conservative activists, so will he be able to exercise sufficient authority? Will he fundraise effectively? Will he be able to rebuild the GOP infrastructure, develop adequate strategies to oppose Barack Obama? It will take time to answer these questions. After all, few people expected that Howard Dean would be such a good chairman of the DNC; his backers might have expected him to steer the party in the right direction - but did they foresee how effective a grassroots operation he would be able to build?

At the very least, we know that Steele was among the best communicators of the Republican field, and that will matter since one of the main duties of a RNC Chairman is to represent the GOP on cable news and on Sunday’s political shows. Steele’s victory has already gotten Chris Matthews to admit that he voted for him in Steele’s failed senatorial bid in 2006 (and Matthews wanted to run for Pennsylvania’s Democratic nomination?).

There are certainly other important points we can make already - whether on the politics of race, the declining influence of the South and the GOP’s ideological civil war.

Race

Coming less than two weeks after Obama’s inauguration, the symbol of the GOP electing its first African-American leader is certainly a meaningful - and substantive - development. For one, it underscores the GOP’s fear at possible racial undertones in its criticism of Obama. This concern was heightened by the fact that Steele’s opponent in the last ballot (Katon Dawson) had belonged to an all-white club and had said he had been moved to politics by his opposition to busing.

Furthermore, Republicans are surely aware of their need to reach out to minorities. The magnitude of the party’s losses in 2006 and in 2008 can be attributed to a dramatic swing to the left of the Hispanic community and to historic turnout among African-Americans. Republicans have been talking about fixing those trends for much of the decade, of course, so it is unlikely that they can regain the trust of minorities simply by electing an African-American leader (Mel Martinez’s term as RNC Chairman did not help, after all), but they can’t be blamed for trying. At the very least, they avoided the public relations disaster of opening the Obama era by electing an all-white club member.

“Insider vs. outsider” rather than “conservative vs. moderate”

Steele is often being described as the most moderate candidate of the RNC race, and he certainly was not as far too the right as some of his competitors - whether Dawson or Ohio’s former Secretary of State Ken Blackwell. Furthermore, Steele drew opposition from conservative activists in the final weeks of the race; memos were circulated, for instance, about Steele’s contacts with Log Cabin Republicans.

That being said, Steele is undoubtedly a conservative - not only by Maryland standards, but also by national one. For instance, Steele got a ringing endorsement by Fox News’s Sean Hannity, who proclaimed him to be the “best kind of conservative.” Saying that others were further to the right does not say that much when the others are party chairs and grassroots leaders.

If anything, Steele’s status as an outsider running against figures of the Republican establishment (whether Dawson or Duncan) is far more relevant than his ideological positioning - and it is this status that made Steele acceptable (perhaps even desirable) by the party’s right. Conservative activists want to bring the party back to its root after what they believe has been eight years of ideological disarray.

What better way to usher in a new era closer to conservative principles than to kick out those who have been responsible until now and bring in new blood? Steele’s backers played on this dynamic to portray their champion as the heir of the Reagan Revolution. Steele’s election is “the most thoroughgoing change since Ronald Reagan took over the Party,” said for instance California Committeeman Shawn Steel.

Steele himself promised to bring the party back to clearer - and purer - roots. “This is the dawn of a new party,” he said. “There is not one inch of ground we’re going to cede to anybody… it’s important for us to be able to establish with clarity what we believe.”

The end of Southern hegemony?

In 2008, Obama managed to fissure the GOP’s hold on the South by carrying Virginia and North Carolina while coming close to winning Georgia. At the same time, the Deep South looked like the last refuge of a Republican Party left for dead in the Northeast and in much of the Midwest and Southwest.

Some Republican leaders started to complain that the South had too much of a hold on Republican politics, endangering the GOP’s electability elsewhere in the country. This was one of the main arguments motivating the campaign of Saul Anuzis, and one of the main arguments against a Dawson chairmanship.

Steele’s win is the logical conclusion of these concerns. His narrow victory against Dawson is first and foremost that of a non-Southern against a Southerner, and that is sure to have dramatic consequences on the future of the Republican Party. It could shift the balance of power or resource allocation within the RNC, and it could mean that Southern constituencies losing influence - starting with evangelicals - to the benefit of Republicans more concerned with a pro-business stance and fiscal conservatism.


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Lincoln Davis stays in House, Bill Sali wants to return

Two days ago, House Republicans got some encouraging recruitment news. Now, it’s the DCCC’s turn to get good news in two important races: ID-01 and TN-04.

Democratic Rep. Lincoln Davis was expected to run for Tennessee’s gubernatorial race in 2010, but his recent appointment to the Appropriations Committee made him think over his decision. Yesterday, Davis (one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus, and one of only 11 Democrats to vote against Obama’s stimulus bill) announced he would not run for Governor and would seek re-election to the House.

” As a new member of the House Appropriations Committee, I will have a significant opportunity to practice fiscal responsibility of our nation’s finances,” he wrote in a statement. “This recent appointment is an opportunity for the district I represent that I could not easily turn away from.”

Tennessee’s current Governor is a Democrat, but he is term-limited out of office. Davis was considered one of the front-runners for his party’s nomination, so his move shuffles the primary field. A number of state legislators are mentioned as potential candidates, but eyes are now on former Rep. Harold Ford Jr., who could become the front-runner if he chooses to run.

Davis’s decision also has a major impact at the House level. TN-04 is a conservative district that is becoming increasingly Republican: Bush won 50% of the vote in 2000, 58% in 2004, and McCain performed even better, receiving 64%! In other words, TN-04 has changed considerably in the six years since Davis’s first election, in 2002. Thus, an open seat in TN-04 would have been a huge Democratic headache and a major pick-up opportunity for Republicans. Davis’s decision to run for re-election is thus great news for the DCCC, which will not have to worry about the seat over the next two years.


Idaho’s Walt Minnick is arguably the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent. He seats on a heavily Republican district that gave Bush 68% in 2004 and McCain 62% in 2008, and he was able to pick-up the seat thanks to his Republican opponent, then-Rep. Bill Sali.

To the consternation of Idaho’s GOP establishment, Sali won the crowded Republican primary in 2006 with only 26% of the vote. He survived the general election that year, but the disdain many Republican officials felt for him combined with Sali’s extreme conservatism put him in a tough spot in 2008; the last straw was Sali’s heckling his opponent’s chief of staff while the latter was delivering a television interview. Even then, Walt Minnick only won by 2% - a testament to just how conservative ID-01 is.

In 2010, Republicans will be favored to defeat Minnick with a less controversial candidate… unless they get stuck with Sali for yet another cycle!

Democrats were surely not daring hope that they could be that lucky, but the former representative filed a statement of candidacy with the FEC this week. In other words: he is considering seeking a rematch in 2010. If Sali gets his party’s nomination, Minnick will surely breath a huge sigh of relief.

This is not to say that a Sali candidacy would guarantee that he will move on to the general election: A number of prominent Republicans (for instance Attorney General Lawrence Wasden or former state Controller Keith Johnson) are mulling a run, and any of them would represent a huge threat to Minnick. But Sali could hope that the primary is crowded and that his name recognition guarantees him enough of a base to win the primary with a small plurality - just as in 2006.


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As poll finds her unknown and Paterson trailing, Gillibrand works to win over critics

The Judd Gregg buzz is picking up, with the Senator himself acknowledging that he is being considered for the position of Commerce Secretary. As I explained last night, the potential for liberal outrage if Lynch gets to designate Gregg’s successor is so great as to make Kirsten Gillibrand’s appointment look like children’s play.

That does not mean that we should lose sight of New York’s new Senator, who is currently working overtime to convince state Democrats that she is not the enemy.

First, she has hired a prominent New York Hispanic: former Bronx Democratic Leader Roberto Ramirez. Given that her stance on immigration has emerged as the most dangerous part of Gillibrand’s record, this move is a necessary step towards diffusing tension with the state’s Hispanic leaders. At the very least, Ramirez will allow Gillibrand to establish contacts and start conversations.

Second, Gillibrand has scheduled meetings with most of her critics, starting with Rep. Carolyn McCarthy . As we saw during her acceptance speech last week, Gillibrand is looking to convince liberals that she wants to work with them and that they should not view her as an obstacle to their objectives; she had for instance pledged to work with McCarthy to strengthen background check requirements in gun sales.

It will be fascinating to watch whether Gillibrand can give liberals enough assurances. After all, she did win the support of gay right groups within a few hours of her appointment and despite a mediocre record on gay issues. Can she perform a similarly smooth transition overall? We should quickly know whether Gillibrand succeeded by listening to the post-meeting reactions of people like McCarthy and Rivera; neither has not shied away from offering blistering criticism for now, so any change of tone will be quickly noticed.

However, it is obvious that Gillibrand has a long way to go before winning her critics over. A few days ago, we learned that Assemblyman Peter Rivera accused the new Senator of “xenophobia” for her position on immigration. Now, Rivera is distributing a 40-page dossier on Gillibrand to state legislators.

Some of Gillibrand’s former House colleagues also remain skeptical. Last week, we saw that most skipped Paterson’s press conference in Albany, despite receiving an invitation. Now, a fair number are refusing to say that they support Gillibrand’s re-election in 2010. Rep. Jerrold Nadler did his best not to answer the question, while Rep. Edolphus Towns went as far as to say he was “open” to endorsing a primary challenger.

It is in this context that a poll was released - this one from Marist:

  • Overall, 46% say Gillibrand was the right choice, 24% the wrong choice, and 30% have no opinion. Just like the Siena poll released earlier this week, Marist found that Gillibrand’s appointment is better received by Republicans than by Democrats - albeit by less dramatic margins than in Siena. As importantly, Gillibrand herself is far more popular among Republicans (she has a favorability rating of 51%) than among Democrats (where only 33% have a favorable view of her).
  • However, the most important finding is that most voters do not have an opinion of her: 48% among the population at large, and an even higher 57% among Democrats.
  • In general election match-ups, Gillibrand crushes Rep. Peter King, 49% to 24%. But she is only barely ahead of George Pataki, 44% to 42%.

The fact that far more Democrats refuse to express an opinion suggest that they are more skeptical of their new Senator but that they are unwilling to express an unfavorable opinion without knowing more about her; in other words, they remain open to criticizing her - and the next few months will be critical if Gillibrand wants to close the door to a primary challenge.

It is harder to know what to make of the general election numbers: There is no reason to believe that Pataki is eying a political comeback, and the fact that King is even less known that Gillibrand makes it difficult to make much of that 25% margin.

David Paterson’s numbers, on the other hand, are worrisome:

  • He loses 47% to 41% in a match-up against Michael Bloomberg; he led by 4% in November. Of course, this is not an interesting test since Bloomberg is very unlikely to jump in the gubernatorial race just one month after his mayoral race.
  • But Paterson also trails against Rudy Giuliani, 47% to 46%. Paterson led by 10% in a November poll and by 9% in an October poll.

Needless to say, the combination of the state’s budgetary problems with the Senate appointment mess is putting Paterson in a tricky situation - and this is not the first poll to find him in trouble. A recent survey found him ahead of Andrew Cuomo by just 2% in the Democratic primary.


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Senator Gregg rumored for Commerce

Rumors that Republican Senator Judd Gregg is one of the leading candidates to be tapped as Commerce Secretary are spreading like wildfire tonight. We do not know how seriously Barack Obama is entertaining this option, but there is little doubt that Gregg is indeed being considered for a position left open by Bill Richardson’s abrupt withdrawal?.

Roll Call and Politico are currently reporting that Gregg is refusing to answer questions about the process. “I am not at liberty to discuss that,” he told Politico. Such language is typically used by politicians who are being vetted for some position.

(Another leading candidate is reportedly Symantec CEO John Thompson, a major Democratic contributor. Thompson would be a return to the traditional practice of appointing fundraisers as Commerce Secretary. Richardson’s appointment had been a break in that tradition.)

Needless to say, a Gregg appointment would be quite a bombshell. For one, it would increase the number of Republican Cabinet members to three (Gates is not a registered Republican, but he was part of George W. Bush’s Cabinet). And Gregg is not known as a centrist in the mold of Olympia Snowe or even of Ray LaHood, the new Transportation Secretary. Rather, he is a reliably conservative voice.

His appointment would thus be sure to give progressives heartburn, especially since the party’s left has not gotten much love in other Cabinet picks. On the other hand, a Gregg nomination would open up his Senate seat - and the New Hampshire Governor who would have to appoint his successor is John Lynch, a Democrat.

If Gregg were to join the Cabinet, then, he would probably be replaced by a Democrat (though this is not certain, as I explain below). Provided Franken survives Coleman’s legal challenge in Minnesota, that would be enough for Democrats to reach a 60 seat-majority in the Senate!

A few questions remain however, besides whether Obama will actually appoint Gregg.

1. Would Gregg accept the nomination?

Given that Gregg has the history of a reliable Republican lawmaker, why would agree to join Obama’s Cabinet and why would he consent to giving Democrats a 60th seat in the Senate? Furthermore, why would Gregg leave his powerful Senate job (he is finishing his third-term, so he is starting to build seniority) for a second-tier Cabinet position in which he would be expendable?

At the very least, fellow Republicans are likely to put heavy pressure on Gregg not to leave the Senate now that the news that he is being considered is out. The GOP cannot afford for Gregg to leave the Senate, as that would leave it even more diminished at a time the party is already trying to figure out how to recover from historic defeats.

2. Who would Lynch appoint?

The New Hampshire Governor might be a Democrat, but some are cautioning that he might not appoint a Democrat! Says the Associated Press:

During the state’s first-in-the-nation presidential primary, Lynch attended events for Republican John McCain. He also named GOP star Kelly Ayotte his attorney general as part of his centrist governing style that delivered him re-election with 70 percent of the vote.

Adds Swing State Project:

Gov. John Lynch would get to fill the vacancy, and he is very untrustworthy when it comes to matters of partisanship. He’s said ten times as many nice things about John McCain as he has about any Democrat. He’s regularly undermined Dems seeking elective office in New Hampshire, more than once supporting their Republican rivals (like GOP state Sen. Bob Odell). He’s just really not much a Dem. In short, if there is any sitting Dem governor who might appoint a Republican in circumstances like this, it’s Lynch.

Could Lynch really take his moderate-to-conservative politics so far as to deny Democrats their 60th vote in the Senate? After all, he could justify naming a Republican by saying that Gregg was one or that Democrats should not have a filibuster-proof majority.

At the very least, Lynch would be unlikely to appoint a progressive or liberal-to-centrist Democrat in the mold of Reps. Paul Hodes or Carol Shea-Porter, and Swing State Project contends that the favorite might be Katrina Swett, the national co-chair of Lieberman’s 2004 campaign. (Either Hodes or Shea-Porter are expected to challenge Gregg in 2010 if he is not selected as Commerce Secretary, and they would have a good shot at knocking off the incumbent. For Gregg to be replaced by a Democrat like Swett now would thus also frustrate their own statewide ambitions.)

Ultimately, a better path for Democrats to get 60 seats as far as progressives are concerned should be for Obama to appoint either of Maine’s Republican Senators (both Snowe and Collins were mentioned as potential Cabinet picks in late 2008). Not only do they have a far more moderate profile than Gregg, but their replacement would be more likely to be a liberal Democrat than that of the New Hampshire Senator.

Update: More sources are now warning that Lynch could appoint a Republican. The LA Times suggests that Gregg would not agree to give up his Senate seat unless he has assurance that Lynch would name a Republican. Meanwhile, Reuters quotes a Democratic source who says that Lynch would be “more likely to appoint a Republican!”


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Illinois has a new Governor

It took less than two months for the Illinois state legislature to impeach Governor Rod Blagojevich. What appeared like a foregone conclusion ever since the Blagojevich’s arrests took place this afternoon, as the state Senate removed him from office in a unanimous vote.

A few minutes later, senators voted to permanently bar Blagojevich from holding elected office in the state - a dramatic punishment for a man who just a few weeks ago imagined himself running for President in 2016.

And just like that, Illinois got a new chief executive: Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn was sworn in to replace Blagojevich. (The governorship remains in Democratic hands.)

Even though the allegations against Blagojevich are quite damning, it remains disturbing that he suffered such a harsh penalty without (before?) being indicted. (Prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald filed a complaint document when he arrested Blagojevich, but he has yet to obtain an indictement.) Perhaps it would have been more prudent for legislators to wait for him to do so; otherwise, are we not setting a dangerous precedent and giving prosecutors a path to bring down politicians against whom they cannot obtain an indictement?

Yet, Blagojevich’s defiant attitude over the past two months did not help his cause, and he often seemed more concerned with provoking his critics than saving his career.

For one, Blagojevich’s media blitz and his sudden decision to deliver an impassioned speech to the Senate this morning rubbed legislators the wrong way given that Blagojevich refused to testify in front of the state legislature. “If he wants to come down here, instead of hiding out in New York and having Larry King asking questions instead of the senators,” said one state Senator. And how else than as an attempt to provoke can we explain his unexpected decision to appoint Roland Burris to the U.S. Senate?

Unfortunately for Democrats who are worried that Burris’s association to the outgoing Governor could endanger this Senate seat in 2010, Blagojevich’s removal comes three weeks too late to change anything. There was a time in which Democrats hoped to delay Burris’s seating until Quinn became Governor, but the party’s leadership ultimately decided not to pursue the showdown.

We will now have to wait and see whether Blagojevich remains a major story in Illinois in 2010. If Illinois Democrats are still tainted by the scandal or if Blagojevich is put on trial in the months before Election Day, the midterms could be tough for Burris.

On the other hand, Blagojevich’s ouster has obvious consequences for the gubernatorial election. Before this scandal erupted, Quinn was not expected to seek the governor’s mansion in 2010, but other Democrats (starting with Attorney General Lisa Madigan) were eying the race.

Now that he is Governor, will Quinn run for re-election? If he does, will he be challenged in the Democratic primary?

These are important questions that will have to be answered in the months ahead. At the very least, it is unlikely Republicans will be able to mount much of a challenge in the gubernatorial election. The Illinois GOP has a thin bench; a credible Republican who is willing to run for statewide office is far more lkely to jump in the senatorial election than in the gubernatorial one.


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Stimulus politics

Last night, the stimulus bill passed the House of Representatives 244-188. As everyone has heard by now, not a single Republican voted in favor of the bill - a surprising development given the Obama Administration’s efforts to get at least some GOP votes.

This opens up a number of fascinating questions about the path Republicans are taking in the early days of the Obama era. Today’s Republican House caucus is more conservative than it was four years ago, and that is bound to have consequences on the direction the GOP takes now that it finds itself locked out of power.

Yesterday’s vote is certainly a risky one for the GOP. The Republicans’ choice to entirely stand up to Obama at a time the new President enjoys high approval ratings and at a time voters want the government to take action to fix the economy could end up hurting the GOP brand further. (This is especially the case since Democrats had conceded a frustratingly large number of GOP demands before the bill’s passage; that will now help Democrats portray Republicans as obstructionist).

At the very least, the House GOP’s refusal to entertain this stimulus bill could strengthen some ideological differences between the two parties, making it far clearer than than usual that Democrats favor spending, infrastructure and governmental intervention while Republicans oppose such moves - even in the midst of an economic crisis like this one.

Of course, this is exactly the ideological clarification House conservatives want to bring about. But to the extent that the country now seems to be siding with the liberal argument and getting over the conservative “government is the problem” principles of the Reagan Revolution, the contrast is likely to hurt Republicans (at least in the short term).

Finally, yesterday’s vote could prove particularly problematic for vulnerable Republicans elected from economically distraught areas like Michigan or Ohio. Those who face a competitive 2010 race will have to explain their vote against the stimulus at a time their constituents are suffering more than most from the economic crisis. One name that comes to mind is Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (MI-11), who is shaping up to be one of the Democrats’ top targets of the 2010 cycle.

All of this said, it is of course entirely impossible to determine what electoral consequences the stimulus debate will have before we know how the economy will evolve over the next few years.

While no Republican voted for the bill, 11 Democrats voted against it. They are: Reps. Allen Boyd (FL-02), Bobby Bright (AL-02), Jim Cooper (TN-05), Brad Ellsworth (IN-08), Parker Griffith (AL-05), Paul Kanjorski (PA-11), Frank Kratovil (MD-01), Walt Minnick (ID-01), Collin Peterson (MN), Heath Shuler (NC-11), Gene Taylor (MS-04).

This list represents the who’s who of conservative Democrats. 10 of these representatives belong to the Blue Dog Coalition, with Kanjorski the only one who does not have such a right-wing profile - making his presence on the list somewhat unexpected. Yes, Kanjorski faced a very competitive race in 2008 (his survival was a surprise), but that had not prevented him from being one of the main champions of the original bailout bill. That did not prevent him from winning re-election a few weeks later.

Another interesting fact about this list is that 7 of these representatives were first elected in the 2006 and 2008 cycles, picking up GOP-held seats (only three defeated a Republican incumbent). All are considered to be highly endangered in the 2010 cycle, starting with Minnick and Kratovil, and that might explain their reluctance to take a politically risky vote when the Democratic leadership can get to a majority without their support.

On the other hand, there are a number of names on this list who are unlikely to face much of a race in 2010 (Allen Boyd, Jim Cooper, Collin Peterson, Gene Taylor), so there is nothing to attribute their vote to but their ideological leanings.


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House Republicans recruit in GA-12, MD-01

To reconquer a majority in the House, Republicans will have to put in play the red-leaning districts that have fallen in Democratic hands. That will require the GOP to conduct some excellent recruitment for the next few months: They cannot afford to let Democratic incumbents in districts like AL-02, ID-01, MD-01 or VA-02 get entrenched - not to mention all the seats Republicans lost in 2006.

Yesterday, we learned that state Senator Andy Harris is interested in a rematch against now- Rep. Frank Kratovil in MD-01. Harris himself revealed that he is set to meet with NRCC officials to discuss a possible 2010 run.

MD-01 was one of the most improbable sites for a Democratic pick-ups. It is a very conservative district in which John McCain crushed Barack Obama by 18%; in 2004, Bush had triumphed by 26%! Yet, Republican divisions allowed Democrats to score an upset.

The seat was in the hands of Rep. Wayne Gilchrest, a moderate Republican whose centrist positioning so annoyed conservatives that they funded Harris’s primary challenge last year; Harris knocked off Gilchrest in the February 13th primary, giving the DCCC hope it could contest the seat. Gilchrest’s decision to endorse the Democratic nominee boosted his chances, and Kratovil ended up beating Harris by less than 3,000 votes.

In other words, Harris’s decision to run in 2008 is the principal reason MD-01 is now in Democratic hands, and he is thus probably not the best candidate Republicans can run in 2010. For him to jump back in the race could reopen the wounds of the 2008 primary, allowing Democrats to portray Harris as too conservative for the district.

That said, there is no question that Kratovil will remain one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents because the moderate Republicans that supported him in 2008 might desert him in 2010. For one, the national environment is unlikely to be as toxic for the GOP as it was over the past two cycles, meaning that independent voters could stop behaving like partisan Democrats; that is probably all Republicans need in districts like MD-01.

Second, will moderate Republicans want to punish Harris in 2010 as much as they did in 2008? If the state Senator runs, Gilchrest could once again attempt to rally support against him; but he will certainly have less of a voice now that he is no longer a congressmen.

In brief: Harris is not the strongest challenger the GOP could file given what happened in 2008, but he would remain a credible challenger.

GA-12 meanwhile, is another district Republicans need to contest. Sure, it does not tilt red (Bush narrowly prevailed here in 2004, but Obama beat McCain by 9%), but it was specifically designed by the state legislature to be competitive. This was demonstrated by the 2006 election, in which Rep. John Barrow barely survived a strong Republican challenge.

Yet, the GOP barely contested the seat in 2008, allowing Barrow to cruise to a 32% victory. That could have been a fatal error for Republicans, as that kind of easy victory is sometimes all an endangered incumbent needs to entrench himself durably in a district.

We will soon know how solid Barrow’s position now is, as Republicans have found a candidate to run against Barrow: retired Army Lt. Col. Wayne Mosley, who served in Afghanistan and Iraq and who has enough wealth to self-fund his candidacy. He has already indicated that he intends to spend half-a-million dollars of his own money. (Republicans were hoping that Mosley would run in the 2008 cycle, but he ended up frustrating the GOP’s efforts - leading to Barrow’s easy victory.)

At the very least, Mosley’s entrance in the race puts GA-12 on the radar screen of 2010. An important question will be African-American turnout: Higher participation rates in 2008 helped Obama soar to a 9% victory in this Bush district. Will black voters come out in equally high numbers in a non-presidential year?


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More major announcements: Boyd and McCollum out of FL’s Senate race

When a Senator announces his retirement, we typically expect a myriad of contenders from both parties to jostle for the open seat. In Florida, however, a surprising number of top politicians have announced they will not run for Mel Martinez’s seat - starting with Martinez himself. Then, both parties’ dream candidates (Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Alex Sink) bowed out.

Their decisions were expected to open the door for the second-tier of candidates to jump in the race, but the withdrawal trend continued today as Rep. Allen Boyd (a Democrat) and Attorney General Bill McCollum (a Republican) announced they would stay out of the Senate battle!

This would have been McCollum’s third Senate candidacy. After serving in the House for twenty years, he narrowly lost the general election to now-Senator Nelson in 2000; four years later, he fell in the Republican primary against now-Senator Martinez. Now that he has found a way back to elected office, it is understandable that he does not want to risk it all again for yet another difficult primary race.

(Note that McCollum allowed for a slight possibility that he might change his mind. “Unless circumstances change it is my intention, at the appropriate time, to announce that I will be seeking re-election as Florida’s Attorney General,” he wrote in a statement.)

On the Democratic side, Allen Boyd justified his exit by the seniority he was building in the House and his desire to keep serving Floridians. “With 12 years of service under my belt, I am in the unique position in the House to build on past legislative accomplishments, and I will have an even stronger voice in policy decisions that will affect our economy and fiscal outlook,” Boyd wrote in a press release. Translation: Boyd did not want to risk his political career without even being sure he would make it in the Senate race’s general election.

Boyd is one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress (in fact, he is one of only eleven to have voted against the stimulus bill today), so his decision is a relief for progressives who would want any of the other top Democrats to represent them in the general election - and then in the Senate.

Furthermore, Boyd’s move has a major impact on the 2010 House battle: If he had jumped in the Senate race, his House seat (FL-02) would have been left open. FL-02 is a red-leaning district that voted for George W. Bush by 8% in 2004; in other words, Republicans would have had a clear shot are picking-up this Tallahassee-based seat. But they remain unlikely to mount a credible challenge against Boyd.

So where Boyd and McCollum’s exits leave Florida’s Senate race?

For one, it looks like the contest will be less muddy than it appeared a few weeks ago, when Bush and Sink’s withdrawal suggested that both parties could face chaotic and unpredictable primaries. The very fact that the process would be so unpredictable is leading ambitious politicians like Sink and Boyd not to want to gamble their political career on seeking a promotion - and that means that we are left with less potential candidates.

On the Republican side, McCollum’s exit leaves two candidates as the ones who are attracting the most buzz: Rep. Connie Mack IV, whose father served in the Senate from 1989 to 2001, and state Rep. Marco Rubio, considered to be an ally of Jeb Bush. Both men have been laying the groundwork of a statewide run, so they are both expected to be candidates. (Given everything else that has happened in this race, don’t be surprised if they are not.)

On the Democratic side, Rep. Kendrick Meek is already in the race, along with state senator Dan Gelber. A number of other officials (starting with Rep. Ron Klein and Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio) are said to be looking to a run. It would be a huge surprise if no candidate other than Meek and Gelber jumped in the race, but the possibility that Democrats do not face that competitive a primary looks far more plausible today than the day Meek surprised us by entering the race.


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The 2010 ad wars have been launched, and Reid is the first target

We might only be in January 2009, but the first ad of the 2010 Senate cycle has already been released!

Eager to show that they are serious about playing offense after two catastrophic cycles in which Republicans failed to win a single Democratic seat, the NRSC is airing an ad in Nevada against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, attacking him for supporting the bailout bills of 2008 and the stimulus bill that is currently debated:

Here is the script:

Super spending partisan Harry Reid. As Democrat leader, he helped pay for vicious attack ads criticizing last year’s bailouts. But guess who voted for the $700 billion bailout. You guessed it — Harry Reid. And now he wants a trillion more dollars in new spending? A trillion dollars?? Tell Harry Reid to stop wasting our hard-earned money.

What is interesting, of course, is that many Republican Senators supported the bailout plans - and a fair number are sure to vote in favor of the stimulus package. Yet, we already saw in 2008 that both national committees did not hesitate to attack incumbents who had voted for the bailout, even though congressional leaders of both parties favored the plan. That made for a somewhat confusing October campaign.

However, it remains to be seen whether the stimulus plan will be as unpopular among voters as the bailout was last fall. For one, the unpopular Bush Administration has been replaced by a new Administration that is enjoying his honeymoon period. Voters are willing to trust Obama, and it looks like they will at least give the new President a chance to explain the need for a stimulus plan.

Republicans are undoubtedly aware of the danger that Obama’s popularity shields Democrats from GOP attacks, and they are doing their best to portray the objectives of congressional leaders as separate from Obama’s. Over the past few days, a number of Republicans have showered praise on the President while accusing Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid for shunning Republican concerns.

This will be a strategy Republicans will keep up until the 2010 midterms - or at least until Obama’s approval rating fades to more modest levels.

And this will be a strategy they will use with particular passion against Reid, who faces a tricky re-election battle as he needs to juggle the duties of a Majority Leader with the political necessities of a competitive Senate race. Republicans are eager to portray Reid as an excessively partisan Senator, hoping that they can do to him what they did so successfuly to Tom Dashle in 2004.

Note the language used in this new ad, from the use of the word “partisan” to the reminder that Reid is a “Democratic leader” responsible for his party’s “vicious attack ads.”

Yet, Nevada is far from being a red state like South Dakota was: Bush did prevail here by 5% in 2004 (21% in South Dakota), but Obama crushed McCain by 12% last November. It will be much more difficult for Republicans to convince Nevada voters that Reid should be thrown out just because he is the Democrat’s Senate leader.

(And I am not even mentioning that Reid has no opponent for now, and one of his most probable opponent was recently indicted. It is thus very possible that Republicans will not be able to recruit a credible candidate in this race, so we shall wait before taking the NRSC’s offensive threats seriously. After all, the most recent recruitment news was dismal for the GOP.)


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Jim Bunning’s plans

For the past few months, all eyes have been on Kentucky Senator Jim Bunning, with most people assuming that the Kentucky Senator does not seriously intend to run for re-election despite his unequivocal early December statement that he will do so.

There have been too many incumbents who insisted they would run before reversing themselves for us to take Bunning’s declaration at face-value. Think, for instance, of Pete Domenici, the New Mexico Senator who denied retirement rumors for months, only to announce his retirement just when people had started to believe he would actually run again. Think, also, of John Doolittle, the California representative who the GOP desperately wanted to see retire; he called it quits last January after insisting he would never even consider doing so.

Yet, the time has come to entertain the option that Bunning actually intends to run in 2010 and that all the rumors that are circulating about the probability that he will retire are being circulated by Republican operatives who want to put pressure on the Senator. (That Bunning is the most vulnerable incumbent of the 2010 cycle is due to his lack of stature rather to the national environment or to his state’s evolution; this makes him into the rare incumbent whose party wants to see retire)

1. Bunning’s insistence

Senators like Domenici who announce that they will run even though they have not made final plans rarely go to great length to deceive analysts. They are typically content denying retirement rumors and seeing where things go.

Bunning, on the other hand, constantly reminds journalists that he is in the race to win. At some point, we need to take this seriously - especially when the Senator goes as far as take on his own party’s leadership for suggesting that he had not fully made up his mind!

Last week, Kentucky’s other Senator Mitch McConnell was asked whether Bunning would seek re-election in 2010; the Minority Leader answered he did not know - and that did not please Bunning, who immediately came out swinging. McConnell “had a lapse of memory… when he said he didn’t know what my intentions were,” Bunning said. “Whatever Mitch says is whatever he says. He’s the leader of the pack and he can say whatever he wants and get away with it.”

Combined with the clear signs delivered by Republican leaders (led by McConnell) that they would like to see Bunning retire, these combative words suggest that Bunning is dead serious about a 2010 run and that he is accusing his own party of trying to undermine him. That could make for very interesting fireworks over the next few months!

2. There is no scandal

Doolittle was ultimately forced to retire because of the corruption investigation that was looking increasingly threatening; it was hard for him to argue that his Republican colleagues were just out to get him when new revelations were coming out daily about the allegations he was facing.

Yet, no such scandal is threatening Bunning. That makes it far more difficult for Republicans to convince the Senator that he is a drag on their chances to hold the seat; and it also means that we should not expect damaging information to come out and force Bunning to retire (which is what happened to Doolittle in 2008 and to Bob Ney in 2006).

3. What about Bunning’s weak fundraising?

Those who argue that Bunning should not be taken seriously point to his dismal fundraising: As of the end of 2008, he has less than $150,000 in the bank. That is not the behavior of someone who plans to run for re-election, especially when that incumbent knows he is endangered.

Yet, Bunning offered an explanation as to his weak fundraising. “For two years Sen. McConnell had a broom out and swept the state of Kentucky. For two years I did not hold a fund-raiser in the Commonwealth of Kentucky because I knew how important McConnell’s race was,” he said. In other words, Bunning held off from tapping Kentucky’s GOP networks between 2006 and 2008 in order to not undermine McConnell’s re-election race.

Bunning seems to have a rational enough explanation that Republicans should be worried that he might be sincere (though his explanation does not account for his lack of fundraising between early November to the end of December). And whether or not we believe Bunning, the result is the same: He is woefully unprepared for what is to come, and he has already drawn a top-tier challenger who has started raising money.)

4. Can Republicans do anything?

Democrats would still be competitive if Bunning were to retire, but there is no doubt that they would prefer facing the incumbent. As I explained above, few people thought they would be lucky enough to get their wish - but such a scenario is looking increasingly plausible.

This leads to one last question: Can Republicans do anything to stop this besides trying to convince Bunning to call it quits? After all, as demonstrated by Bunning’s decision to slam McConnell, the incumbent is not taking well to the pressure he is receiving.

The most obvious path for the GOP to block Bunning is through a primary, but this is a very unlikely scenario. The state’s Republican bench is rather thin, and none of the possible contenders have shown any indication of eying a statewide run. The 2011 gubernatorial race is a far more attractive option for Kentucky’s ambitious Republicans.

The only path left for the Republican establishment is to pressure Bunning into retirement by cutting off financial support. For instance, McConnell could signal that he wants GOP donors to hold off from contributing to Bunning’s campaign - and this would put the incumbent in such an untenable position that he would have no choice but to call it quits.

This could certainly work, but it could also dramatically backfire: If a financially squeezed Bunning nevertheless remains in the race, the consequences would be disastrous for Senate Republicans.

Update: And the saga continues! Today, it was NRSC Chairman John Cornyn who offered this stunning quote: “I don’t think he’s made a decision on whether to run. We’re working with Sen. Bunning now to provide him all the information he needs in order to make that decision.” Responded Bunning: “He’s either deaf or he didn’t listen very well.” Republicans are really desperate for Bunning to leave, and Bunning is having none of it.


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Poll watch: Bennet trails Owens, Bloomberg leads in two polls

Public Policy Polling continues to stay on top of the 2010 cycle by releasing the first Colorado poll to test Michael Bennet’s strength.

The newly appointed Senator remains unknown to a plurality of voters: 45% of respondents have no opinion of Bennet, while 33% hold a favorable view and 21% an unfavorable one. Very importantly, however, Bennet is viewed very favorably by Democrats, 55% of whom have a favorable view of him (versus 7%).

This is a very different situation than the one Kirsten Gillibrand faces in New York, as a poll released yesterday showed her far more popular among Republicans than among Democrats. Bennet shows no such early vulnerability, and he remains unlikely to face a serious primary challenge next year.

As for the general election, PPP tested four potential match-ups. Unfortunately, it chose the wrong week to go in the field as two of the Republicans it included in the poll withdrew from the race yesterday - thus making half of the poll obsolete:

  • Bennet leads former Rep. Tom Tancredo 48% to 39%; but he trails former Governor Bill Owens 44% to 41%.
  • Bennet led by single-digits against both Republicans who passed on the race yesterday: 40% to 34% against Attorney General John Suthers, 43% to 37% against former Rep. Scott McInnis.

These numbers contain encouraging news for both parties. On the one hand, Bennet is undoubtedly vulnerable. He is unknown to voters, his support is well under 50% and he trails a potential challenger - clearly a worrisome sign since we do not even know how solid Bennet will be on the campaign trail yet.

On the other hand, the poll contains a lot to reassure Democrats. For one, Bennet has only been introduced to voters for the past five weeks, while Owens served as the state’s top executive for eight years and while Tancredo is a high-profile state politician. In other words, Bennet has a lot of room to grow - and he is already holding his own.

Second, Bennet’s vulnerability will do Republicans no good if they cannot field a credible challenger. Suthers and McInnis’s bowing out of the race have left Owens as the GOP’s only dream candidate.

Third, this poll confirms that Tancredo would be a weak general election candidate. Despite having a higher profile than either Suthers or McInnis, he underperforms both of them and he allows Bennet to shoot up to 48% - a clear sign that Colorado voters are rejecting the conservative Republican.

The day’s second and third polls come from New York’s mayoral race. One was conducted for NY1 by Baruch College Survey Research, testing Mayor Michael Bloomberg against his two most probable opponents:

  • Bloomberg leads Comptroller Bill Thompson 45% to 32%; he is ahead of Rep. Anthony Weiner 43% to 36%.
  • Bloomberg retains a very strong approval rating, at 64%.
  • The Democratic primary is very competitive, with 31% of respondents choosing Weiner and 22% Thompson.

The second poll was conducted by Quinnipiac:

  • Bloomberg enjoys an even stronger approval rating (at 69%), despite the fact that voters strongly disapprove of his maneuver to extend term limits. Weiner and Thompson remain largely unknown to voters.
  • In a match-up against Thompson, Bloomberg leads 50% to 34%; in a match-up against Weiner, it’s 50% to 35%.
  • Like in the Baruch poll, Weiner has a small lead in the Democratic primary: 30% to 23%.

Only the result of Baruch’s match-up between Bloomberg and Weiner find any sort of encouraging number for Democrats. For now, New York voters approve of Bloomberg’s performance and they are not entertaining the possibility of voting against him (even if they disapprove of the fact that Bloomberg is allowed to run for a third term in the first place).

Thankfully for Weiner and Thompson, they can at least count on a level of base support (this is New York, after all) that opens the door to the race becoming competitive in the future. And both have room to grow, since they remain largely unknown to city voters.



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  • All good things must come to an end

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  • What remains on the table

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  • Confusion in Connecticut (Updated)

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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Results thread, part 2: Dems suffer staggering losses in House and legislatives races, limit damage in statewide races

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election Night results thread: Rep. Boucher’s fall first surprise of the night

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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