Campaign Diaries

Over the past few weeks, speculation has been increasing that Chris Matthews laid the groundwork of a Senate run only in order to improve the terms of his contract with MSNBC. Call me naive, but I chose to believe that Matthews couldn’t be that much of a cynic. But the latest developments suggest that Matthews might indeed be inching away from a jump into politics that just a few weeks ago looked all but certain.

Consider this interview with the president of NBC (Matthews’s employer):

Q: Right, Mr. Zaidi could take over for Chris when Chris goes off to run for office.
A: [Chris Matthews] is not running for office.
Q: He’s not?
A: I don’t think so. Well, look, if he were running for office, he wouldn’t be on TV.

Matthews has indicated he will announce his decision in the weeks ahead; while an exit would certainly shake-up the race, other Democrats (Reps. Schwarz and Murphy, for instance) were already looking at the race and it’s not like Matthews was scaring other Democrats away.

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Meanwhile, a new Research 2000 poll confirms that Alaska is one of the reddest states in the country. The survey tests all three of 2010’s statewide races and finds little for Republicans to worry about. In particular, the poll confirms that Sarah Palin remains highly popular in her home state: She enjoys an approval rating of 60% and she would be favored to win whatever job she runs for in 2010 - including the Senate seat currently held by fellow Republican Lisa Murkowski:

• In a primary showdown with Murkowski, Palin demolishes the incumbent 55% to 31%.
• In the Senate’s general election, Palin beats former Governor Tony Knowles 53% to 39% and demolishes state Senator Hollis French 58% to 27%. Murkowski would also be favored to win the general election if she makes it there: She leads Knowles 49% to 41% and French 56% to 27%.
• No danger for Palin in a gubernatorial general election, as she crushes Knowles 55% to 38% and posts a strong re-elect of 51%, while only 16% want to replace her.

Needless to say, a Murkowski-Palin battle would be one of the most entertaining races of the 2010 cycle if Palin chooses to go down that path. In 2006, Palin defeated Murwkoski’s father (then the incumbent Governor) in the GOP’s gubernatorial primary, so this would constitute the second episode of a family feud. As if that was not enough, Palin’s running for Senate would attract national spotlights as it would be viewed as the prelude of a presidential run in 2012 or 2016.

Whichever Republican makes it to the general election in the gubernatorial and senatorial races should have little to worry about. While Knowles keeps Murkowski under 50% in the Senate race, he is unlikely to run after consecutive defeats in the 2004 Senate race (against Murkowski) and the 2006 Governor’s race (against Palin). This leaves the House race for Democrats to focus on. Rep. Don Young’s survival was the second biggest upset of the 2008 cycle (after Anh Cao’s victory in New Orleans). Young trailed Democratic nominee Ethan Berkowitz throughout 2008, often by huge margins; but he ended winning by 5% despite the ethics scandals surrounding him. Research 2000’s poll now finds him leading Berkowitz 49% to 46% despite an atrocious approval rating.

As we learned in 2008, Alaska voters only consider voting for a Democrat if the Republican nominee is a convicted felon; and even there Ted Stevens got much closer to winning re-election than most people expected.