Comments on: First Senate rankings: Republicans once again stuck in defense

By: Woody

Woody — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 19:08:51 +0000

Barring a dramatic turnaround in the national political climate due to a worsening economy, national security problems, and/or mounting Obama mistakes, 2010 will be the culmination of a wave that began with Howard Dean in 2004. I believe Republicans will still be having trouble recruiting their governors to challenge popular Democratic incumbent senators. Open seats in IL, NY, DE, and CO will draw strong Dem candidates, who are likely to retain their seats. Sebelius seems to be on her way to taking the KS seat, and we already know the GOP will struggle in KY, PA, MO, FL, NC, and possibly NH and OH. Harry Reid’s situation seems safer after Obama won his state by 15%, and his potential challengers are dropping like flies. It seems plausible to envision a 6-seat gain for Democrats (making it 65-35), after which all DSCC energy and resources are devoted to playing defense in 2012 and beyond.

By: bpfish

bpfish — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 16:04:50 +0000

I disagree with most of the Likely Retention seats because most of them are predicated on the strongest possible challenger actually getting in the race. Boxer is safe unless Arnold runs. Lincoln is safe unless Huckabee runs. Beau Biden (assuming he runs) is safe unless Castle runs. Inouye is safe unless Lingle runs. Grassley is safe unless Vilsack runs. Dorgan is safe unless Hoeven runs. None of these are probably going to happen, so you might as well call them safe and update when the second-tier challengers jump in.

Those in the Toss-Up and Lean categories and some others in the Likely category will be competitive no matter who runs.

By: Bill

Bill — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 00:52:19 +0000

I find it hard to see how the Republicans could pick up the seat in Illinois. It has become a very Democratic state. The last time a Republican won a senate seat was when Peter Fitzgerald beat Carole Mosely Braun, who was very damaged goods, and she still got over 45% of the vote. Roskam is much too conservative to win a state wide election, and Mark Kirk is not that well known outside his district. Also, I think it is wrong that the Democratic candidate will be tarnished by the Blagojevich scandal. Everyone in Illinois knows that nost other Democrats can’t stand Blagojevich either. If there is a special election, Daley and co. can still get the vote out.

By: Frank

Frank — Thu, 25 Dec 2008 18:07:03 +0000

The scenarios presented completely ignore the state of the economy. Palin’s approval has already fallen 29% in Alaska and her giveaways have put the state in anticipated financial crisis. The state gets 90% of its revenues from oil taxes and royalties and the price per barrel of Alaska crude has dropped 80% since early July.

Schwartzenegger could have similar problems. There are forecasts the state could be broke by February. CALPERS, the state employee retirement system, has lost 25% of its principal in the past six months. He has just had to join with Democrats to pass a budget/taxation package he called “illegal” a few weeks ago and is getting no help from Democrats.

Alabama Representative Davis will get substantial exposure over the next two years due to his position on House Judiciary. He is extremely articulate and will be likely to be highly involved in prosecution of those Bush administration crooks who fail to get pardons. His first name is Artur, by the way.

By: Ronald May

Ronald May — Thu, 25 Dec 2008 16:30:31 +0000

1. James Douglas ran against Leahy in 1992. He was out of office ( 1993-94) for those two years. Otherwise, he has held office since the early 1970’s. I believe that he could run against Leahy. He is old enough to retire if he loses.

2. Connecticut-Gov. Rell had a bout with cancer and has recovered. Her husband also had cancer, and I do not know his status. I believe that since she in 2006 on her own right, that she will retire in 2010.

3. Specter has recovered from two bouts with cancer. I think that his career will be decided more for medical than political reasons.

4. Louisiana- I am also amazed that Vitter is not below Bush’s polling numbers . However, this is a state that considers Edwin Edwards as a hero. He once boasted that he lost $ 750,000 in Las Vegas. He thought that this was an asset. As a note, Dardenne is a Republican.
As a note, Dardenne is a Republican.

5. S.D.–Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s grandfather was governor. Her father ran for governor. This is the job she really wants.

6. N.C.–I believe that Burr is safer than most people think. I think Dole’s was more due to the perception of she being a Washington insider.

7. N.H.–I believe Sununu lost due to allegations regarding the 2002 race which came out after the election. I also think that the job he really wants is the one his father had. I think he will run for Governor in 2008. I think that Gregg is in a strong position. The main obstacle is since the Republicans are in the minority, he may reitire.

8.Ky. -The irony would be if the grandson of Commissioner Happy Chandler challenged Bunning.

9. Mo.- Secretary of State Callahan is the most likely challenger since her seat is not up in 2010.
I think Bond could retire for previously mentioned reasons for Republicans.

10. Cal. –The possesses two interesting scenarios.

a. Bobby Shriver (Democrat) might seek the Governorship. Maria’s husband might run against Boxer as a Republican.

b. Feinstein could win the governership and Boxer lose the Senate seat. Then , Governor Feinstein appoints Boxer to her seat.

11. Del–The Bidens pulled this same strategy for the son to become A.G. In the current polical climate ( Illinois) ther could be a backlash that would benefit Carney ( in the primay) or Castle ( in the general election ) .

By: Steven

Steven — Thu, 25 Dec 2008 14:03:12 +0000

It seems unlikely that Barbara Boxer could be unseated even if the Terminator did run.
Keep in mind that because of his moderate voting record, California republicans (if they even exist) DESPISE Schwartznagger. His only base are fans of his movies, and the hollywood district of fellow stars. If he wanted to win that senate seat, he would have to campaign as hard as Tom Daschle and John Thune did in 2004. Even then, it could turn into a Franken Vs. Coleman.

By: Taniel

Taniel — Thu, 25 Dec 2008 04:46:22 +0000

I don’t mean to suggest that Missouri has Wyoming or Oklahoma red status. But it seems hard to argue that Missouri is a reliably Republican state if the GOP nominee won it this year on his way to a 7% deficit nationally and on his way to losing Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Indiana. Sure, Missouri can still go blue (and I did rank it fifth in my rankings), but it remains a tough state for any Democrat to win.

By: Guy

Guy — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 22:41:31 +0000

Taniel - I agree MO didn`t swing as much as the other “red” states like IN and NC but it was closer than in 2004 so it has moved a little more Democratic, but this may not last.

You are correct that in North Carolina there is a very strong Democratic bench. Roy Cooper, the AG, is a very strong state wide candidate and I think Richard Moore is strong after doing a very good job as treasurer (second best state employee pension fund in the country).
I didn`t want to disappoint you with no North Carolina comments!

By: Jaxx Raxor

Jaxx Raxor — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 22:36:50 +0000

Missouri is not a solid Republican state.. if it was McCain would have won by a large margin, not barely. However, 2008 showed that Missouri’s status as a national Bellweather is over, and that in Federal elections at least, it is a lean Republican State.

By: Taniel

Taniel — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 22:02:24 +0000

KMKleff,

I am not sure that says much about Missouri not being red considering that Obama won most other swing states. When Missouri goes red when Indiana and North Carolina are going blue, that does signal that MO is a far more solidly Republican state than it used to be.