Campaign Diaries

Of all the speculation that is already surrounding the 2010 cycle, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter’s early determination to seek the New Hampshire Senate seat is perhaps one of the most surprising.

In 2006, Shea-Porter scored what was perhaps the biggest upset of the cycle, relying on an extensive grassroots network to defeat the DCCC’s favored candidate in the primary and then unseating Rep. Jeb Bradley in the general election. Bradley sought a rematch with Shea-Porter this year, making NH-01 one of the most endangered Democratic seats of the country - but Shea-Porter held on, 52% to 46%.

It looks like Shea-Porter is already looking to move up further, as Politicker reports that she is aggressively positioning herself for a Senate run against longtime Republican incumbent Judd Gregg. She could be just weeks away from opening an explanatory committee - the first step towards a statewide run.

A challenge to Gregg would be a very difficult race, but (as 2006 and 2008 have shown) it would be foolish to underestimate Shea-Porter’s abilities as a candidate. She might not be a career politician, but she has demonstrated her ability to beat expectations, energize her base and appeal to New Hampshire’s famed independents. That she represents the state’s more conservative half could also be an asset, as she might thus reduce Gregg’s margins in Republican areas.

That said, Shea-Porter has certainly not had time to entrench herself in her district, so it is doubtful that her constituents feel connected to her enough to stay faithful to her in a statewide run - especially if she faces Gregg. Furthermore, her retirement from NH-01 would create a difficult open seat for Democrats to defend, particularly in a midterm election.

The DSCC’s dream candidate is popular Governor John Lynch, who received 70% of the vote in his re-election race last month. New Hampshire Governors serve two year terms, so Lynch would have give up his position to challenge Gregg - making it somewhat unlikely he will do so.

It is nonetheless surprising that Shea-Porter is positioning herself for a run before Lynch has provided any hint as to his intentions. It might be a way to declare her intentions before fellow Rep. Paul Hodes, who represents the state’s more Democratic district since 2006. (He picked-up the seat at the same time as Shea-Porter.)

Hodes is also mentioned as a possible candidate, but he might shy away from jumping in and thus jeopardize his House seat without even being sure of making it to the general election. Unlike Shea-Porter’s, Hodes’s House seat is relatively safe so he can afford to take his time.

All of this is occurring in the context of extensive transformations in what was once a Republican stronghold. The state GOP was decimated in 2006 (they lost both House seats and control of both chambers of the state legislature); this year, John McCain was crushed by 9% last month while Republican Senator John Sununu lost his re-election race.

On the other hand, Republicans also gained 11 seats in the New Hampshire Assembly, gave Shea-Porter a close call - not to mention that New Hampshire was the only Kerry state which Obama won by single-digits! The state has not yet joined the rest of New England in burying the Republican Party.

Lynch, Hodes and Shea-Porter colliding in a Democratic primary would be a wonderful opportunity for Republicans to regain some of their positions. Sure, a three-way battle is very much unlikely, but it is looking plausible that both Hodes and Shea-Porter might run, opening up the state’s entire House delegation (a reverse image of New Mexico this year - and that did not turn out so well for Republicans).