Campaign Diaries

We are getting quite an extensive early look at the 2010 Senate battle thanks to the Daily Kos-sponsored Research 2000 polls. They have already confirmed that Nevada, Missouri and Colorado will host competitive contests - and we now have two new surveys from Pennsylvania and Iowa. (Campaign Diaries’s first 2010 Senate rankings should come out soon!)

The Keystone State is of course the more interesting race of the two: Not only is it it sure to host a highly entertaining general election but both primaries are shaping up to be widely unpredictable. Research 2000 accordingly tested a number of possible match-ups, finding wide open primary and general election races:

• Dem primary: Research 2000 tested the three Democrats who are most often mentioned as possible contenders and found a plurality of Democrats - 42% - unable to make up their mind, leaving Chris Matthews at 24%, Rep. Patrick Murphy at 19% and Rep. Allison Schwartz at 15%. In three-way match-ups, more than half of respondents say they are undecided - but Matthews does come narrowly ahead of both Murphy (28% to 21%) and Schwarz (30% to 18%).

Needless to say, these numbers give us absolutely no indication as to who is favored to win the Democratic nomination. That none of these three potential candidates receives the support of just a third of respondents suggests that the primary is wide open - and all candidates will have to labor hard to increase their name recognition and build a solid ground campaign.

• GOP primary: Senator Arlen Specter leads conservative Pat Toomey 43% to 28% with 29% undecided.

This would be a rematch of 2004 contest. That year, Specter survived by a narrow 51% to 49% but Toomey is confident that he could fare better this year because large numbers of moderate Republicans (Specter’s base) deserted the party and registered as independents over the past two years, meaning that they can no longer vote in the state’s GOP primary. (Pennsylvania hosts closed primaries, so independents cannot vote).

Research 2000’s poll confirms that Toomey is very well placed: Specter’s 15% lead might seem an impressive improvement over his 2004 margin, but Specter is a five-term Senator while Toomey has been largely out of the news for the past four years. For Specter to be stuck in the low 40s is a dismal showing that gives Toomey a clear shot at avenging his 2004 loss.

• General election: Research 2000 tested six possible match-ups, finding Arlen Specter leading each of his - but staying under 50% in each - while Pat Toomey trailed all three Democrats. The closest race was Specter-Matthews, with the Republican up 45% to 44%. Specter led Murphy 48% to 36% and Schwarz 49% to 35%. Meanwhile, Toomey trailed Matthews 46% to 35%, Murphy 44% to 36% and Schwarz 42% to 36%.

While Matthews is performing better than his party rivals, the difference is mostly due to Murphy and Schwarz’s low name recognition: More than 20% of Democrats in the Specter-Murphy and Specter-Schwarz match-ups say they are undecided, versus only 8% in the Specter-Matthews match-up. In other words, Specter seems to be guaranteed a tough re-election race no matter who ends up running against him. If Toomey happens wins the Republican nomination, however, Democrats would have to be considered favored to win the general election.

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In Iowa, Research 2000 only tested longtime Republican Senator Chuck Grassley against former Governor Tom Vilsack, finding the incumbent leading 48% to 44%. The trouble for Democrats is that Vilsack is unlikely to jump in the race if Grassley runs for re-election - and there are no other obvious top-tier Democrats who are looking to challenge the five-term Senator.

It is easy to see why: Grassley has a strong approval rating (57% approve of his performance, versus 36%) and should be considered a heavy favorite as long as he runs for re-election. That said, an unexpected Vilsack candidacy would undoubtedly make this a competitive race. Perhaps a series of polls showing a tight Grassley-Vilsack race might be what pushes the Democrat to reconsider the race, decide that he has a shot at toppling the incumbent after all and decide to jump in.

If Grassley decides to retire, on the other hand, the race would automatically become a top Democratic opportunity - and perhaps first drawing a top challenger like Vilsack might push Grassley towards an early exit.