Campaign Diaries

The situation remains as confused in Illinois in the second day of the Blagojevich scandal, with Democrats struggling to distance themselves from the disgraced governor as quickly as possible. Barack Obama and Dick Durbin, for instance, called on Blagojevich to resign while Harry Reid warned that the Senate would refuse to sit any Blago-appointed Senator.

Unfortunately for Jesse Jackson Jr., it looks like he will be a collateral damage of yesterday’s revelations. This morning, ABC News reported that Jackson was “Senate Candidate 5,” described by the complaint document as having offered something “tangible up front” in exchange for a Senate appointment.

In an afternoon press conference, Jackson acknowledged that he was “Candidate 5″ but denied that he was being targeted by the investigation or that he had done anything wrong. “I reject and denounce pay-to-play politics and have no involvement whatsoever in any wrongdoing. I did not initiate or authorize anyone at any time to promise anything to Gov. Blagojevich on my behalf,” he said.

Indeed, the complaint document does not assert that Jackson has engaged in any wrongdoing since it does not specify whether “Candidate 5″ offered a bribe or fundraising help; the latter would not constitute criminal activity.

That said, Jackson now finds himself tied to the Blagojevich scandal. Whether or not Jackson broke the law, whether or not he crossed the line in his conversations with the governor, Democrats need to turn to a politician who is as detached as possible from this mess - and that excludes anyone who could even be suspected of having played along Blagojevich’s demands.

In other words, Jackson looks to be disqualified from the Senate race - and this is a major development: He would have been considered one of the favorites to win the Democratic nomination in a spring special election thanks to a solid base of support and a higher name recognition - both significant factors in a crowded primary.

His elimination makes the Democratic primary even more unpredictable than it was yesterday. Sure, Jackson could still run, but it is unlikely he could break away from the taint of this scandal. So what is next? His fall could result in a less competitive primary than expected: Jackson was the only Democrat who looked sure to run in a special election, and the field could be less fractured if he is no longer a top contender. It could also allow another African-American candidate (Danny Davis, perhaps) to step up.

—

Other important news came from the Republican side, where Rep. Mark Kirk (IL-10) confirmed that he would consider jumping in a special election - a possibility we first alluded to yesterday.

Kirk would be unlikely to run in 2010 as he would then have to give up his House seat for a difficult statewide race. But he faces no such dilemma if a special election is held next spring - allowing him to take a shot at the Senate without fearing any consequences. Kirk’s ability to win over independent voters in his blue-trending district makes him an attractive candidate to Republicans desperate to exploit this unexpected opening, and he could prove difficult for a Democrat to beat so shortly after Blagojevich’s scandal.

Update: Kirk is already going at it very hard. In an interview with Fox News today, Kirk predicted an upcoming indictment for “Senate Candidate 5,” making clear that he would run as a reform candidate and a break from the state’s Democratic establishment:

“I already suspect that the Senate candidate number five, a person mentioned in the criminal complaint, will be indicted as well… it’s clear that there was an attempted bribery made. And I think that what we saw yesterday is only the start of a number of arrests and indictments coming, people who are connected to or dealt with Governor Blagojevich on the phone.”

—

One last question concerns the possibility that Blagojevich will follow the pleas of the state’s political class and agree to voluntarily resign in the days ahead. Most analysts consider this an unlikely scenario, but it is nonetheless possible. Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn could then become active Governor before the state legislature passes a bill stripping the governor of his appointment powers.

Would the legislature still pass that bill, or would they be satisfied with Blago’s disappearance, allow Quinn to name Obama’s successor and thus deprive the GOP of its opening? It could be tempting for Democrats to do so, but it looks like they have already gone too far in defending a special election to start backpedaling. Quinn himself endorsed the idea.