As of this morning, the Blagojevich scandal did not threaten the Democrats’ hold on Obama’s Senate seat - at least in the short-term - since the state’s Lieutenant Governor is also a Democrat.
In the space of a few hours, however, the situation changed drastically as the state legislature is preparing to strip the Governor of its appointment powers - and Republicans might now be salivating at a chance to increase their Senate ranks.
State observers view it as unlikely that Blagojevich would voluntarily resign. Impeachment procedures would last weeks even if they were started today, meaning that Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn would not be in a position to appoint Obama’s successor until January - after the 111th Congress convenes - which would leave the current Governor weeks to appoint a successor and thus embarrass Democrats .
After the state’s senior Senator Dick Durbin called for the state legislature to repeal the governor’s right to appoint a replacement (”no appointment by this governor under these circumstances can produce a credible replacement,” he said), the state legislature quickly acted. Both the state House Speaker and the state Senate President are already convening a special session of the legislature to pass such a bill!
This could mean a Senate special election in the spring of 2009 - a year-and-a-half before Obama’s successor was meant to first face voters. The reasons this could be a remarkable opportunity for Republicans are numerous:
- It would force Democrats to defend an open seat just months after suffering from such a major scandal instead of having a two-year incumbent defend his seat two long years after Blagojevich’s arrest.
- It would lead to a crowded - and most probably bloody - Democratic primary, as all Democrats who entertained Senate dreams would jump in and then have to quickly turn around to face the GOP. Jesse Jackson Jr., Danny Davis, Jan Schakowky, Lisa Madigan, perhaps Tammy Duckworth: the list is long.
- Republicans like Rep. Kirk of IL-10 will surely realize they have nothing to lose in a Senate run (they would not have to give up their seat) and thus jump in the race - something they would be unlikely to do in 2010 when they’d have to give up the House. And now that the taint of scandal has been transferred back to state Democrats, the Republican nominee - especially if he has a moderate profile - could campaign on a reformist message.
- From a governance perspective - rather than an electoral one - it would cost Democrats a reliable Senator for the first few months of 2009, complicating their attempts to overcome Republican filibusters.
On the other hand, for a Democrat to be appointed would undoubtedly taint him - even if he was appointed by Pat Quinn - since his name would necessarily be associated with Blagojevich’s scandal. That Democrats are now pushing so rapidly toward a special election also suggests that they want to turn the Blagojevich page as fast as they possibly can.
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In New York, meanwhile, the prospect of a 2010 special election to fill the reminder of Hillary Clinton’s term (until 2012) will force Democrats to play defense - and one top Republican has already hinted he might jump in the field.
Rep. Peter King, a Republican who represents a Democratic-trending district on Long Island, said that he is “seriously considering the race for Hillary Clinton’s seat,” adding that he had already talked to leaders of the Republican Party and of the Conservative Party.
It is of course impossible to handicap the race before knowing who Governor Paterson will appoint, but there aren’t many Republicans left in New York who could mount a credible campaign, meaning that Democrats only have to worry about a few potential contenders.
While King is not strong enough to give Democrats nightmares and while he has a fairly conservative profile, his candidacy could make the race competitive - especially if Paterson chooses a weak Democrat or a place-holder.
At the very least, Democrats would then have a shot at New York’s blue-leaning third district in what would be a very tough open seat for Republicans.
In terms of the primary field, most of those listed wouldn’t run; someone like Duckworth was an appointee-type, Davis wasn’t really on anyone’s list; Madigan was never interested and wants to be governor, and now the way is clearer than ever in 2010.
Now, an open Democratic primary would likely draw plenty of candidates, unless there was a concerted effort to rally quickly behind one.
Your probably right SC: alot of Democrats who would have been appointed probably wouldn’t run in a special election, but that doesn’t preculde the fact that it will probably be croweded and contentious, althrough Blagovich’s arrest makes it much more likely that the Illnois and National Democrats will try to clear the field.
The good news for Democratics is that the GOP’s bench is thin. The bad news is that the GOP’s best prospect, Mark Kirk, who won reelecton even as Obama carried the district by a decent, would start nothing less but in a toss-up against every single Democrat who probably has an interest in the Senate seat. That he wouldn’t have to give up his House seat to run would make it extremely enticing for him to try to move out with little to no risk, and a Kirk vs Democrat race would be an unwelcome early referendum on the Obama Presidency, and one, if Kirk one, would strongly embolden the GOP, much more than Cao’s win in LA-02.
If the state legislature opts for a special election, Kirk would have to get through a primary (assuming there would be one) which is dominated by conservative Republicans in IL, and they don’t look kindly on moderates like Krik. We could see downstate state senators, or, God forbid, even Jim Oberweis getting into a primary. If Krik could get through a primary due to a fractured conservative vote, he could win the general against most Chicago Democrats by winning his home district in Cook County, the collar counties, and downstate.
Also consider that “Senate Candidate 5″, who most are guessing is JJJ, will likely face his own felony charges for offering a bribe at Blago’s request. If it is JJJ, his seat would likely stay blue due to demographics (barring a William Jefferson situation). But the chaos would be fun to watch.
The other congresscritter to be effected most politically is Debbie Halvorson. Before her recent election, she was Blago’s Senate Majority leader and one of his strong allies. She was able to neturalize the issue in the last election because her opponent, Marty Ozinga, was part of Blago’s pay-to-play scheme with contracts. She won’t be able to make the same defense in 2010. Expect her to be a top target by the GOP.
There is nothing to stop Blagojevich from appointing Obama’s replacement before the rules change. He is arrogant, vain and may want to do as much damage as possible before he goes down. He could appoint himself or even a Republican. If he names a Republican, it would be impossible, I think, to stop or remove the appointment.
The big winner, aside from the Republicans, may be US Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald. He will be impossible to remove when Obama takes over in January and he would be a favorite he he decides to run for higher office in the future.
Teezy, It is extremly likely that if there is a special election for Obama’s seat and that Mark Kirk decides to enter, the National Republican Party will try their best to clear the field for tim. Infighting among the Republicans is the number one reason why they failed to defeat Blago in 2006, and both the Illnois GOP and the Senate Republicans know that a conservative cannot win in Illnois statewide unless Blagovich himself was the Democratic nominee. And they wouldn’t want a golden oppourtnity to go wasted by having Mark Kirk being severely weakened in a primary by Conservatives.
In terms of Kirk’s advanatages, he would definitly be in a toss-up against nearly every Democrat, but Illnois is still a strong Democratic state and the seat wouldn’t lean Republican in a special election against anyone except perhaps Jessee Jackson Jr., who is unlikely to be the nominee because of the possibility that he is “candidate 5″.
In terms of how he would win, there is no chance that he could win in Cook County, but he could greatly lower the margin of a loss there and other Democratic strongholds, and coupled with overwhelming victories in the rural GOP leaning counties, he would be able to pull off a win.
fritz,
From what is being said on MSNBC, the Senate is not required to seat a Blago appointment. The Senate itself is the judge of its members qualifications and can refuse to seat or can expell a member at will.
Teezy, Blagodovich will likely be in jail by 2010 and no longer an issue in the state. If this had happened in December 2009, this may have been an issue for Halverson, but otherwise, she wont have much trouble in a blue trending district with a thin Republican bench.
Bob,
George Ryan was indicted in Dec 2003 and was not convited at trial until April 2006. Blago will be in the new for a LONG TIME in Illinois. In fact, Ryan was used by Blago in his 2006 re-election campaign ads against his Republican opponent, Judy Baar Topinka. Blago will be a big issue for Debbie.
I think I know why so many Democrats are pushing for a special senate election in Illinois. Any Democrat appointed by Blagojavich or Quinn will be highly vulnerable in 2010, and if that Democrat loses, the seat will be in GOP hands for 6 years. If there is a special election, a less tainted Democrat will have the chance to run, and even if he or she loses, the seat will only be in Republican hands for two years before another election. Presumably, Blagojavich will be out of the news, or at least be in the news less frequently, in 2010 and due to Illinois’s Democratic lean, they will have a good chance to reclaim the seat.
“From what is being said on MSNBC, the Senate is not required to seat a Blago appointment. The Senate itself is the judge of its members qualifications and can refuse to seat or can expel a member at will.”
Teezy: You are correct if he names a Democrat. But it might be tempting for Republicans to support a Republican nominee, say like Kirk, if Blago was nutty enough to name him. It would certainly be debated among Republican Senators as it would help keep the Dems from reaching 60.
Who would want to be appointed by Blago now?
Kirk would be an interesting pick. He’s not a conservative nutball like many in the GOP.