Texas Democrats have had virtually no cause for celebration in Texas over the past decade, and Republicans have solidified their power on all levels of government.
Democrats have not won a gubernatorial or senatorial race since 1990 and 1988, respectively. They made some noise about defeating John Cornyn in 2002 and in 2008 but the Republican prevailed by double-digits both times. And the GOP famously took control of the state legislature and of the U.S. House delegation - the latter after a redistricting coup prepared by Tom DeLay.
As a result, there haven’t been many competitive general elections to follow in Texas - and while many argue that the state will work its way in the swing state column in the next decade because of the rising Hispanic population, we have not gotten to that point yet. (Obama lost the state by 11% compared to Kerry’s 23% rout - a change that is in line with the national 10% turnaround.)
The next few years could get far more entertaining, however. News that Senator Kailey Bay Hutchison is forming a gubernatorial explanatory committee opens the door to a highly entertaining Governor’s race and to an open Senate race - perhaps even in a special election!
Hutchison, who has been in the Senate since 1993, has long eyed the Governor’s mansion but she passed on the race in 2006. To run, she would have to challenge Governor Perry in the Republican primary in what would sure to be a battle of titans. Either Perry or Hutchinson would have to be considered favored in the general election, however, especially the latter: Hutchinson is too entrenched for any top Democrat to dare challenge her.
Of course, it is very unfortunate for Democrats that they are so unlikely to reclaim the governor’s mansion. The state’s next redistricting will be tremendously important since Texas is slated to pick-up as many as 3 new House seats in the next census. Republicans will probably have full control of the redistricting process as they control the state legislature and the governor’s mansion and will be able to gerrymander the map for maximal gains once again. In other words, the gubernatorial race is likely worth a couple of House seats.
The Senate race, on the other hand, could be far more competitive. In fact, many speculate that Hutchison might resign from the Senate sometime in 2009 to concentrate on her gubernatorial run. (It is fairly rare for politicians to take such drastic action, but this is an assumption that has always surrounded talk of Hutchinson).
This could trigger a special election some time in the next year and guarantee a new Texas Senator whether or not Hutchinson ends up unseating Perry.
Due to their recent successes, Republicans have a far stronger bench in the Lone Star State - whether it be House members or a myrriad of statewide office holders. But Democrats have a few potential candidates of their own who could make this a top-tier battle, starting with Houston Mayor Bill White.
One good news for all potential Senate candidates is that they would not have to give up whatever office they now hold to run in a special election. That could lead to far more House members than would normally run to jump in - potentially leading to deeply fractured parties and an entertaining process. (To complicate matters further, a special election in Texas is structured along a two round system rather than a primary/general election.)
I guess the Democrats could try to filibuster again the Republican redistricting plan.
And this time there won’t be neither Tom DeLay, nor the Bush Justice Department to send the Federal Marshals after them.
Panos,
The 2004 redistricting was so controversial (and led to such dramatic confrontations) because it was a mid-decade plan that occurred just two years after the map had been redrawn. I can’t imagine anything similar happening when the redistricting occurs at its naturally scheduled time at the beginning of the next decade.