Campaign Diaries

The GOP finally found reason to gloat last night, but Georgia’s runoff was not the final act of the 2008 campaign. On Saturday, voters in two Louisiana districts will go the polls to elect their next representatives and while Republicans have virtually no chance in heavily Democratic LA-02, LA-04 is looking highly competitive - and its results will hold great symbolic virtue.

Democrats have long held hope that Paul Carmouche is the ideal candidate to snatch the seat away from Republican hands. That Carmouche will face a relative lightweight (physician John Fleming) only increases Democratic optimism. Yet, LA-04 is a heavily conservative district, so Carmouche would have to replicate the spring exploits of Democratic special election candidates in OH-14, MS-01 and LA-06.

Democrats won those three contests because of a significant turnout gap that got turned upside down in yesterday’s Georgia runoff. If Saturday’s turnout patterns (especially among African-Americans) are anything like Georgia’s, it is difficult to see how Carmouche could prevail.

If Fleming prevails, the GOP will finish the year on a double victory that might reassure Republicans that the worst is over and that voters don’t feel the need to punish them further. A win in LA-04, indeed, will be much more meaningful than Chambliss’s triumph in suggesting that Obama’s victory has changed the political environment and that conservative-leaning voters are returning to the GOP’s fold now that the party has lost control of the White House. This could spell trouble for Democrats newly-elected in conservative districts.

If Carmouche prevails, it will serve as a warning to the GOP that their nightmare is not yet over and that Obama’s electoral coalition is looking to stick with Democrats. It would also dissipate Republican hopes that Chambliss’s victory indicates that the pendulum has already swung back and signal to marginal House Democrats that they have more than a fighting chance in 2010.

Given the election’s high stakes, it is not surprising that the NRCC is dialing up the volume of its attacks. For weeks, Republicans have attacked District Attorney Carmouche for being soft on crime by using stories of a few cases he has dealt with against him. The NRCC’s latest ad features graphic images of a drunk-driving accident to suggest that Carmouche is responsible for a hit-and-run accident:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6pTheQo_-YA"]

The DCCC, meanwhile, is engaged in a brutal campaign of its own, attacking Fleming as a millionaire who is seeking personal profit in office:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7LcpfPhs5w"]

In an echo of Norm Coleman’s attacks against Al Franken, the DCCC is also attacking Fleming for tax delinquency - a charge they link to his support for a 23% sales tax:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyCgxdvA7JM"]

Just as in Georgia, Barack Obama has jumped in the fray by recording radio ads for Carmouche, calling on LA-04 voters to send the Democrat to Washington to help him “change America and bring Louisiana’s economy back on track.”