Comments on: Chambliss triumphs and GOP saves the day

By: Ron

Ron — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 21:37:24 +0000

Sebelius would likely never win a Senate seat in Kansas, just like Lingle would probably never win a Senate race in Hawaii.

By: Tezzy

Tezzy — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 20:35:02 +0000

In addition, Obama is a native son, which is why he won huge. Kerry only won the state by 9 points.

By: Tezzy

Tezzy — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 20:32:13 +0000

Ron,
An outsider “mainland” Republican is quite different than a two-time statewide-elected Republican. Lingle may not ultimately win, but she is popular enough (over 60% approval) and liberal enough to start with an advantage and keep the race very close. It’s a similar situation to popular Democrat Gov Sebelius in the very conservative Kansas.

By: Ron

Ron — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 20:10:58 +0000

Teezy, no Republican will win a federal race in Hawaii. Obama carried this state by around 45 points.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 20:00:27 +0000

To be honest, the victory for the GOP is more of a morale booster than a real victory. Georgia is solidly a Republican state, and Obama has very rarely been ahead in the pools before the election on Nov. 4. And even in the 1990’s runoff after Bill Clinton’s election, the GOP crushed the Dems there. And African-Americans are usually more energized by the top ticket, so they usually disregard runoffs there once their favorite candiate (in this case, Obama) wins. There is less urgency for Dems in Georgia to feel they have to vote when their Party wins massively in 2 straight elections, and the demoralized GOP is usually desperate to the point that it tries everything at its disposal to try to keep losses at a minium — and Georgia illustrates this point.
Taniel, even if Samby loses, I don’tthink it translates into a 60 votes as there are enough conservative Dems who will be more concerned about their political careers in cosnervative/GOP states; likewise, there are sufficient Republicans who are moderate enough to vote on issues dear to Democrats. So, what really matters here is how many moderate GOPers and how many conservative Democrats there are, not merely sixty Demoxrats vs. sixty Republicans in the Senate.

By: Teezy

Teezy — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 15:25:51 +0000

Jeb was a “marked man” by the DNC in 2002, and left the gov office with approvals over 60%. I doubt he’s worried about being anyone’s breakfast.

By: Tom B

Tom B — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 15:16:03 +0000

If Jeb Bush runs for Senate he will be a marked man. The U.S does not need another Bush in Washington. I’m shocked he would even consider running. But this could be a boon for Democrats. “Look. See how corrupt and detestible the GOP is!” So, bring it on, Jeb! We’ll eat you for breakfast.

By: Teezy

Teezy — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 15:09:32 +0000

“How concerned were they about “balance” when the GOP controlled the senate?”
- About as concerned as the Dems were this cycle after the campaigned on it in 2006. It’s politics, Jason. Both sides play it.

By: Teezy

Teezy — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 15:06:34 +0000

“Chambliss’s landslide win in a low turnout runoff election says nothing about GOP chances in 2010″
- Actually, it says that when GWB is not part of the campaign rhetoric and Obama is not on the ticket, Republican performance improves (at least in conservative or conservative leaning states). That bodes well for Sen Burr in NC and Sen Bond in MO. They are likely breathing a bit easier this morning.

“Also, Obama never went out and campaigned for Martin, which probably greatly contributed to the lax turnout among African Americans…”
- Not exactly. Obama’s radio ads got plenty of air time on urban radio, but even if he did make a personal appearance, black turnout would still have been down. The high black voter turnout on Nov 4th was to cast a vote for Obama. If they can’t do that, fewer will show-up. That’s just common sense. The turnout in 2010 will be down as well.

As far as the 2010 races mentioned:
HI - If it’s an open seat, Gov Lingle runs and the race will lean her way. If not, safe Dem.
NV - Reid’s approvals at home are AWFUL. We’re talking near Bush level. Even if Porter doesn’t run, an ambitious state senator could pull a “Hagan” on him.
CO - If Owen’s runs, its a toss-up against Sen Salazar. If it’s Tancredo, the RNC and NRSC won’t even bother with a post-defeat condolence card.
MO - Kit Bond’s numbers are decent and it’s still a red state. Bond is favored.
NC - A slightly bluish state, but still fairly conservative and without Bush or Obama, it leans towards the low-profile Burr.
KY - Bunning’s approvals are under 50 and basically have been since his re-election (SUSA). If Bunning does indeed run again, it leans generic Dem.
FL - Could be a toss-up. It would probably lean towards CFO Alex Sink, but would be favored towards Jeb Bush and safe with Gov Crist.
OH - Vionovich’s numbers are not good, it’s now a blue state, and the Dems actually have a bench to draw from. Lean generic Dem.
PA - Spector performed well in 2004, but he will face another primary and a tough general, but this time he’ll get no help from a Bush re-election campaign or a weak Democrat opponent. Toss-up.

By: Jason

Jason — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 14:37:20 +0000

Oh, and I loved all the talk about protecting “balance” in the senate. This morning, NPR featured a Chambliss supporter who claimed that the founding fathers wanted such balance, blah, blah. Hilarious. How concerned were they about “balance” when the GOP controlled the senate?