In the first stunner of the 2010 cycle, Florida’s Republican Senator Mel Martinez announced today that he will not seek re-election.
Martinez’s unexpected announcement creates the first highly competitive (and third overall) open seat of the upcoming cycle and adds to the headaches of a Republican Party struggling to build on whatever leadership it has left in Washington.
Martinez, after all, is not just any Republican. He was nominated in Bush’s first Cabinet, served as RNC Chairman from 2006 and 2007 and was the first Cuban-American to join the Senate. He never looked like a secure Senator, however. First elected in 2004 in a very tight race against Democratic nominee Betty Castor, Martinez was plagued by low approval ratings from the first days of his term and he looked like the most vulnerable Republican incumbent heading into 2010. Just two weeks ago, a Quinnipiac poll showed Martinez trailing a generic Democrat 40% to 36% and posting a dismal re-elect number of 36%.
In other words, Martinez had a giant target on his back - and the knowledge that he would have to spend much of the next two years fundraising and campaigning must have weighted heavily on his mind as he chose to retire.
This is not to say that Martinez’s retirement helps the GOP. Open seats are a party’s nightmare, and incumbents has to look really vulnerable for their party to cheer for their retirement. Think Ted Stevens in Alaska, Doolittle in California or Cubin in Wyoming. Martinez was endangered, but certainly nowhere near those levels, and he could very well have survived depending Democratic recruitment and the political environment in 2010.
Now, Republicans have to defend an open seat in a swing state that voted for Barack Obama in the last presidential election. At the very least, the GOP has a strong bench in the Sunshine State, as it controls most levels of power (all statewide officeholders but one are Republican). Mentioned as possible candidates are a number of House representatives, state legislators (including the state Senate President Jeff Atwater) and Attorney Bill McCollum. The GOP’s dream (and probably unbeatable) candidate is undoubtedly Governor Charlie Crist - but that would endanger the party’s hold on the governor’s mansion.
Democrats also have a number of strong contenders, starting with state CFO Alex Sink. In entertaining timing, Sink had announced earlier this week that she would not run for the Senate seat in 2010 and would seek re-election instead. That was taken as a sign that Sink was eying the 2014 gubernatorial race, in whcih Crist will be term-limited out of office. But Martinez’s decision could shake things up and lead Sink to reconsider. Other potential Democratic candidates include Reps. Ron Klein and Robert Wexler.
It will be especially important for the DSCC and NRSC to clear the primary fields and avoid vicious battles because Florida’s primaries are late (in September), making it difficult for a candidate bloodied in the primary to turn around and win the general election. This is a huge reason Democrats lost the senatorial race in 2004 and the gubernatorial race in 2006.
One possible complication is the buzz that Martinez could resign from his seat before his term is set to end to allow Crist to name his successor and thus allow a Republican to run as an incumbent. This is a fairly uncommon procedure, albeit one the St. Petersburg Times floated this morning. Martinez addressed the speculation during his announcement today. “I do expect to finish out my term,” he said. (That he even had to specificy should invite more speculation.) If this happens, the GOP should have the upper hand and would have maneuvered brilliantly to hold on to what has long looked as their most endangered 2010 seat.
Update: As expected, Maritnez’s decision is quickly causing waves in Florida politics as Republican Attorney General McCollum and former Republican House speaker Rubio have already acknowledged looking at the race and Democrat Alex Sink is said to be reassessing her earlier decision not to run for Senate.
