Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 512

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 527

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 534

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 570

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::start_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::start_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::end_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::end_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::end_el() should be compatible with Walker::end_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_PageDropdown::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1244

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::start_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::start_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::end_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::end_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::end_el() should be compatible with Walker::end_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_CategoryDropdown::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1442

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class wpdb in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/wp-db.php on line 306

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/cache.php on line 103

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class WP_Object_Cache in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/cache.php on line 431

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/query.php on line 61

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/theme.php on line 1109

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::start_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::start_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::end_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::end_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::end_el() should be compatible with Walker::end_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class WP_Dependencies in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/class.wp-dependencies.php on line 31

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class WP_Http in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/http.php on line 61

Strict Standards: Non-static method K2::init() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/functions.php on line 31

Strict Standards: Non-static method K2::register_scripts() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 51

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2Options::init() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 339

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2Header::init() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 339

Strict Standards: Non-static method K2Header::get_header_width() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/header.php on line 8

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::filter_post_comments() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 166

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458
2008 December Archive at Campaign Diaries
Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2Header::output_header_css() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 339

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003


Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
Monthly Archive for December, 2008


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Appointment headaches: Roland, Diana and Caroline

Just a week after making it clear she was hoping to be appointed to Ken Salazar’s vacant Senate seat, Rep. Diana DeGette removed herself from consideration, saying that she preferred to stay in the House where she has been rising in the Democratic leadership.

DeGette was the most liberal of the Democrats that were mentioned as Salazar’s possible successors, and it was considered unlikely that moderate-to-conservative Governor Bill Ritter would appoint someone with her ideological profile. The best progressives can hope for is for Ritter to choose Rep. Ed Permlutter over Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper or Rep. John Salazar.

DeGette’s withdrawal is also noteworthy in the context of the gender discussion she herself launched last week when she noted that Colorado had never had a female Senator or Governor. But DeGette is now the third high-profile woman to remove her name from consideration, after the state’s Lieutenant Governor and Treasurer.

(It might be unfair to lump DeGette with Illinois’s embattled Roland Burris and New York’s challenged Caroline Kennedy, but hopefully the Denver congresswoman will forgive me for doing just that in this post’s title.)

In Illinois, meanwhile, Rep. Bobby Rush raised the stakes further in the battle over Raymond Burris’s appointment. A day after using the racially chard word “lynch” to warn the Senate, Rush compared Burris’s critics to George Wallace and other segregationists from the 1950s:

“You know, the recent history of our nation has shown us that sometimes there could be individuals and there could be situations where schoolchildren — where you have officials standing in the doorway of schoolchildren. You know, I’m talking about all of us back in 1957 in Little Rock, Ark. I’m talking about George Wallace, Bull Connor and I’m sure that the U.S. Senate don’t want to see themselves placed in the same position.

Senate Democrats can consider themselves warned.

In an interesting development, Rep. Danny Davis - another African-American House member mentioned as a possible Senator before Blagojevich’s arrest - revealed that he had been offered the Senate seat a few days ago but that he refused the job; only then did the Governor contact Burris. This confirms that Blagojevich was looking to fill Obama’s seat with a black Senator, either because he cares about ensuring racial diversity in the US Senate or because he is cynically trying to exploit racial divisions to extend his lease in the Governor’s mansion.

In New York, finally, Kennedy suffered days of bad press in the hands of the New York press, especially in the Gray Lady. The main issue was her connection to New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, as I explained a few days ago. The New York Post now reports, however, that Bloomberg’s allies are now pulling away from actively supporting Kennedy’s bid because they think that their efforts have “backfired.”

The Post adds that the plan was to make Kennedy look so inevitable as to quickly lock in support of most prominent state Democrats, but the situation played out a bit differently as Kennedy attracted the vitriol of officials like Sheldon Silver.

Another interesting came out from David Paterson’s side of the story: The Governor just interviewed Assemblyman Danny O’Donnell, whose name had not yet circulated in connection to the Senate seat. O’Donnell would be the country’s first openly gay Senator.

It is hard to tell whether Caroline Kennedy’s odds have truly fallen over the past week or whether her appointment has become so certain that her allies are simply trying to create diversions for Kennedy to avoid looking inevitable and too dynastically entitled. That also applies to Paterson’s public efforts to show he is still undecided; Rep. Charlie Rangel did say last week that Paterson had already settled on an appointee, after all.


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In race with no end in sight, Franken’s lead increases to… 49

2008 is about to come to a close, but the bitter contest between Al Franken and Norm Coleman is nowhere near completion.

Hundreds of absentee ballots are left to be counted, and there is no agreement between the campaigns as to how the tally should proceed. And national politicians are becoming increasingly involved in the race, adding a whole other layer of vitriol in an already tense environment.

At the very least, the canvassing board completed one important part of the recount yesterday. Both campaigns had complained about a number of confusing rulings and an uncertain final count, so the board met to finalize the count of the challenged ballots it went through two weeks ago. 6 extra votes were allocated to Al Franken and 2 extra votes were allocated to Norm Coleman.

In other words: Al Franken’s lead now stands at 49 votes.

The only issue that remains to be resolved is that of the improperly rejected absentee ballots. As I have stated before, Coleman would have no more (non legal) paths remaining if Franken’s camp had not insisted on these ballots being tallied and had not convinced the canvassing board to instruct counties to isolate improperly rejected absentees.

In a confusing decision two weeks ago, the State Supreme Court ruled that both parties and county officials have to agree on exactly which absentee ballots to count (the ballots themselves are in closed envelopes so the campaigns cannot see who the voter has voted for); the ballots on which everyone agrees will then be sent to the state election board to be opened and counted.

This mechanism is unsurprisingly causing chaos. After all, Coleman’s and Franken’s camps have no reason to agree on anything.

County officials have identified 1,346 absentee ballots as having been improperly rejected. An analysis by the Star Tribune suggests that Franken will gain more if all those ballots are counted as more ballots come from precincts won by Al Franken. Thus:

  1. The Franken campaign wants to count as many of these 1,346 ballots as possible.
  2. The Coleman campaign is
    1. refusing to agree to many of these ballots being counted, and
    2. insisting that a new batch of 650 absentee ballots be included; these ballots primarily come from Coleman precincts, have not been identified by county officials (only by the GOP) and the Franken camp is unsurprisingly laughing off the suggestion that they be counted.

In Anoka County, yesterday’s meeting was particularly contentious and no consensus was reached on any ballot. Hennepin County’s process is also likely to be chaotic. The Star Tribune does note that the process is unfolding more smoothly in some smaller counties, however. In Beltrami County, for instance, all parties agreed to forward seven of the eight absentee ballots identified by county officials; in Sherburne County, 15 of 18 ballots have been forwarded (the Tribune adds that both campaigns were responsible for 3 ballots being thrown out in Sherburne).

As if all of these proceedings were not chaotic enough, national politicians are now getting involved around the question of whether Al Franken should be seated if he is ahead after all absentee ballots are counted but before litigation is resolved.

Here is the basic issue: In Minnesota, state law dictates that a canvassing board’s certifying the results is not a final certification if the election lands in court within a week! In other words, if Franken retains his lead after these 1,346 absentee ballots are processed (something that looks more likely than not) and Coleman sues over the issue of missing ballots and double-counted ballots, the Democrat would not be officially certified as the winner.

Yet, Minnesota’s other Senator Amy Klobuchar said yesterday that the Senate should “consider seating that person [certified by the canvassing board] pending litigation.” In other words, Klobuchar wants the Senate to seat a Senator as early as next week.

Republicans were predictably outraged by this suggestion, and new NRSC Chairman John Cornyn issued a harsh rebuke, accusing both Franken and Klobuchar of “creating chaos:”

“Al Franken is falsely declaring victory based on an artificial lead created on the back of the double counting of ballots. His campaign’s actions in the last several days on the issues of rejected absentee ballots are creating additional chaos and disorder in the Minnesota recount. Those actions, coupled with the recent comments by Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, who suggests seating someone even if there is an election contest, are unprecedented. Minnesotans will not accept a recount in which some votes are counted twice, and I expect the Senate would have a problem seating a candidate who has not duly won an election.”

With Minnesota’s recount and Roland Burris’s apointment, the first few days of the 111th Congress could prove highly entertaining.


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Tensions rise quickly after Blago’s defiant move

It did not take long for all parties in the Roland Burris conflict to reveal their intentions, removing all doubt that the situation could soon get very ugly.

In a defiant press conference, Burris confirmed Democrats’ fear by refusing to rule out a run in 2010. Then, Governor Rod Blagojevich and Rep. Bobby Rush explicitly used Burris’s race as a threat to Senate Democrats.

Rush, who defeated Barack Obama in a House primary in 2000, called on the Senate “not to hang or lynch the appointee as you try to castigate the appointor.” He added that, “There are no African-Americans in the Senate and I don’t think anyone — any U. S. Senator that’s sitting in the Senate right now wants to go on record to deny one African-American from being seated in the U.S. Senate.”

In a strikingly similar statement that left no doubt that the use of such racially charged language was deliberate, Blagojevich added: “Feel free to castigate the appointor but don’t lynch the appointor.”

The surprising speed which Blagojevich and Rush have brought up Burris’s race  Senate Democrats could face political problems if they try to deny Burris a seat. The Congressional Black Caucus’s reaction could be crucial in Burris’s face, and Rep. Danny Davis joined Bobby Rush in supporting Blagojevich’s choice. That is a particularly important development considering Davis was also mentioned as a contender for Obama’s seat.

On the other hand, Obama’s decision to quickly release a statement supporting a Senate efforts not to accept Blagojevich’s appointment will strengthen Harry Reid’s hand.

Reid was not distracted by Blagojevich’s maneuvers, however, and he immediately released a statement announcing his opposition to the appointment:

It is truly regrettable that despite requests from all 50 Democratic Senators and public officials throughout Illinois, Gov. Blagojevich would take the imprudent step of appointing someone to the United States Senate who would serve under a shadow and be plagued by questions of impropriety. We say this without prejudice toward Roland Burris’s ability, and we respect his years of public service. But this is not about Mr. Burris; it is about the integrity of a governor accused of attempting to sell this United States Senate seat…

As we have said, [Burris] will not be seated by the Democratic Caucus… We again urge Gov. Blagojevich to not make this appointment. It is unfair to Mr. Burris, it is unfair to the people of Illinois and it will ultimately not stand.

A forceful statement, but does Reid stops short of promising to block Burris? It is somewhat ambiguous what Reid means by “will not be seated by the Democratic Caucus.” It is not up to the Democratic Caucus to take the decision, but to the full Senate; so could Reid be just pledging to not accept Burris in the caucus? Perhaps this is reading too much between the line, but Reid might need an escape route down the line.

Raymond Burris has already said he would seek a legal remedy if the Senate refuses to seat him.

The most dramatic response to Blagojevich’s move belongs to Secretary of State Jesse White, who announced that he would not certify Burris’s appointment as the law requires him to:

As I have previously stated publicly, I cannot co-sign a document that certifies any appointment by Rod Blagojevich for the vacant United State Senate seat from Illinois.

Yet, it is unclear whether the Secretary of State has the power to block a Governor’s appointment. As defined by state law, the certification function appears to be little more than a procedural step. Just like Lisa Madigan’s mid-December attempt to unseat Blagojevich and Harry Reid’s promise to block Burris’s seating, White’s statement might be more about posturing than anything that is legally feasible.

In fact, White’s office has already partially acknowledged that it is not sure it has the power to slow down Blagojevich’s appointment, calling his position more of a “moral” stance.

All of this said, Blagojevich has a point in arguing that he had suggested that he supported a bill to call a special election, and it is Democrats in the state legislature that backed off plans to strip him of his appointment powers. Since he remains the Governor (and faces no immediate threat of being incapacitated), Blagojevich is simply exercising his prerogative, and it is somewhat hypocritical for Illinois Democrats to denounce him when they had ample time to pass a bill requiring a special election.

And here’s one last question to make matters more complicated: What happens if Burris drags the Senate to court for refusing to seat him (a suit he should win based on precedent) but the Illinois state legislature impeaches Blagojevich and elevates Pat Quinn as Governor before the court renders its decision? (In fact, this scenario appears quasi-certain since an appeal would be almost certain.) Could Pat Quinn cancel Blagojevich’s decision and appoint a new Senator since Burris would not yet be seated?

Would that depend on whether White has certified the appointment? Even if White has no legal right not to sign the document, could he delay legal proceedings long enough for the legislature to impeach Blagojevich?


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Blago’s (poisoned) Christmas gift to Democrats

In a surprise and somewhat mind-boggling move, Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich is set to announce that he is appointing Roland Burris to fill Barack Obama’s vacant Senate seat.

Just two weeks ago, Blagojevich’s attorney had said that the embattled governor would not seek to fill the seat. State Democrats then backed away from passing a bill stripping the governor of his appointment powers, thinking they were safe enough from a Blago appointment to not have to take the risk of calling a special election.

Well, Democrats will now have to deal with a very messy situation.

Majority Leader Harry Reid had clearly stated earlier this month that the Senate would refuse to seat anyone appointed by Blagojevich, but will they now follow up on that threat?

Blagojevich made sure to select someone involved in no scandal despite being a veteran of Illinois politics. In fact, Burris is the first African-American to have been elected statewide in Illinois (back in 1978) - a fact that makes it symbolically difficult for the Senate to refuse to seat him when there is currently zero black Senator.

Another fact that will make it difficult for Democrats to oppose Burris: After serving as the state’s Comptroller and Attorney General, Burris ran against Blagojevich in the 2002 gubernatorial primary; he earned the endorsement of then-state Senator Barack Obama.

Worst still, the Senate might not even have the power to refuse to seat Burris as the Democratic leadership was implying it would do. First Read explains that a 1969 Supreme Court ruling held that the Senate cannot judge someone’s qualifications besides the constitutional requirements (age, citizenship); the Senate can also judge the legality of an election or an appointment, but there is no doubt that Blagojevich is legally entitled to appoint Burris.

Though there might be some loophole for Democrats to exploit, the issue would likely have to be litigated in court and there could be a complex legal battle if Senators do attempt to block his seating.

Another solution would be for the Senate to seat Burris and then expel him, a move that would be perfectly legal but certainly embarrassing to pull off politically. It can set a dangerous precedent for Senators to expel a member who has not been convicted of any crime, not to mention the awful symbol of 99 Senators throwing one their one and only African-American colleague.

So can Democrats just let Burris be? The problem is that the former Attorney General is now tainted by this appointment. It is hard to describe him as “clean” when The Chicago Tribune reports that he increased his lobbying efforts to win the seat after the Blagojevich scandal broke in early December!

Remember that Blago is being accused of trying to sell this Senate seat against political or financial favors, so what does it say about Burris that he campaigned for and obtained the position? What did Burris promise Blagojevich in return?

Fairly or unfairly, this question is sure to haunt Burris in the weeks ahead, and it certainly will put Democrats in a very awkward position if Burris actually becomes Senator - and even more so if Burris seeks re-election in 2010.

And that is what is particularly disastrous for Democrats: It looks like Burris intends to run for a full term in two years. He had been talking up his electability recently, pointing out that he has never lost a race against a Republican. That suggests that he has no intention of being a caretaker and Democrats could have to deal with Blago’s taint being on the 2010 ballot.

Burris would undoubtedly face a competitive primary, but Republicans can at least celebrate that they still have a chance to face-off against a Blagojevich appointee in the 2010 general election.


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2008 in review: The biggest shockers

2008 was filled with upsets, from Mike Huckabee’s Iowa triumph to the Democrats’ special election victories in the spring and to Obama’s general election victory in Indiana.

Yet, we had come to expect all of these events by the time they unfolded. Huckabee’s victory was an upset by the standards of the preceding six months and of the millions Mitt Romney spent in Iowa, but he started climbing in the polls early enough for us not to be stunned on January 3rd.

Here’s a list of the top ten shockers of the years, those events that no one saw coming, those that were so stunning that they left us shell-shocked!

1. Clinton wins the New Hampshire primary

Hillary Clinton ran well ahead in New Hampshire polls throughout the fall of 2007, but Barack Obama’s victory in Iowa unraveled Clinton’s campaign. Her New Hampshire numbers collapsed overnight, Obama’s rallies attracted huge adoring crowds, and the January 5th debate left Hillary on the defensive. By Election Day, Clintonites were preparing to be trounced in the Granite State and speculation was flying that her camp was considering an immediate withdrawal.

The rest, as they say, is history. Clinton won a stunning victory that prolonged the Democratic primaries by five months and left the Obama campaign searching for answers

In retrospect, Hillary’s comeback should not have been that much of a shocker. Bounces are intrinsically volatile, and the question was never whether Obama could make that bounce permanent but whether his surge would last long enough to carry him through the finish line. And there were only five days between Iowa and New Hampshire, such a compressed period that the electorate was bound to shift in much higher proportions than in a typical election. Most polls that showed Obama leading by double-digits were taken over the week-end, in the immediate aftermath of Iowa, and there is simply no way that any poll in the field at the height of Obama’s buzz could have picked up Clinton’s comeback. (Other factors that fueled Hillary’s victory were her gains among women and the last-minute decision of many independents to vote for McCain in the GOP primary.)

But all of these attempts to rationalize the results will never erase just how shocked we all were to see Hillary Clinton victorious just hours after staring political death in the face .

2. McCain picks Sarah Palin

Her name was mentioned in the Republican veepstakes, including by Campaign Diaries. But did anyone really expect John McCain to pick Sarah Palin as his running-mate? This bombshell dropped just hours after the end of the Democratic convention, leaving absolutely everyone scrambling to find information about the little-known Governor of a little-known state.

Within hours, we were treated to a flurry of revelations, the most high-profile of which would surely earn a spot on this list if I was willing to consider them separately. Who could have expected on the morning of August 29th that within six days Republican delegates would be cheering a former member of the Alaska Independence Party, a pregnant teenager and her high school fiancé?

What is most fascinating about the Palin pick is that it left Republicans (and many of McCain’s top surrogates) just as stunned as the rest of us! As the press broke stories, the McCain campaign looked completely unprepared to deal with issues it had clearly never heard of - which was quite painful to watch given that modern political campaigns are supposed to control everything down to the smallest detail. In fact, subsequent reports revealed that Palin’s name had emerged as a serious contender in the final days before McCain was set to announce his choice, leaving too short time for the vetting process. (For a larger discussion about the effect Palin had on the general election, check here.)

3. Eliot Spitzer is forced to resign

A headline popped up on The New York Times’s website on March 10. Within two days, Governor Eliot Spitzer had resigned, completing one of the quickest downfalls in political history.

After easily taking-over New York’s governorship in 2006, Eliot Spitzer looked set to become a major player in Democratic politics. He did suffer through a rough first year in Albany, but nothing that looked serious enough to durably damage his national ambitions. His days as Attorney General had earned him a reputation as a superactive crusader who prosecuted white-collar criminals with zeal, and not a single rumor had circulated about his (possibly criminal) ties to an elite prostitution ring until the NYT dropped the bombshell on an otherwise quite Monday afternoon.

That Spitzer was also known for prosecuting prostitution rings certainly increased our shock - not to mention how hypocritical it made him look. And the speed in which the state legislature started talking of impeachment and in which Spitzer accepted to resign was also breathtaking.

4. McCain withdraws from Michigan

In the afternoon of October 2nd, everyone’s attention was focused on the upcoming vice-presidential debate when Politico reported the stunning news that the McCain campaign was pulling the plug on Michigan - no more TV ads, no more mailers and the entire staff relocated to other states.

The Wolverine State and its culturally conservative, racially sensitive electorate had long looked like Obama’s biggest vulnerability, but the campaign’s sudden turn to economic issues dramatically undercut McCain’s support among blue-collar voters. Even so, the GOP had already bet so much on Michigan that no one had seen McCain’s withdrawal coming - starting with the GOP’s state officials who publicly expressed their anger. Even Sarah Palin revealed that she had been unaware of the campaign’s Michigan plans in what was one of her most bizarre interviews.

5. McCain suspends his campaign

By the end of September, McCain’s gains in the first half of the month had been erased and the Arizona Senator had once again fallen behind. And with the Wall Street meltdown shifting the conversation to the economy, he had lost the control of the narrative - something no trailing candidate can afford to do. With his back against the wall, McCain knew he had to take huge gamble.

And just as he had at the end of August, McCain delivered. On September 24th, he announced that he would suspend his campaign and seek a delay in the first presidential debate in order to focus on the financial crisis, immediately setting off cries of astonishment in already over-politicized office buildings and college campuses across America! McCain’s dramatic move certainly shook-up the race; unfortunately for Republicans, it massively backfired on the Arizona Senator who emerged looking erratic and indecisive.

6. Stevens is indicted

We had known for months that Ted Stevens was under investigation for money he had allegedly received in exchange for legislative favors, and his July 29th indictement was the logical continuation of a process that had started a long time ago. Yet, for any sitting Senator to be indicted is so rare as to be truly shocking news, especially when the indictment drops four months before said Senator is up for re-election!

Stevens’s indictement was yet another headache for Senate Republicans to deal with, as it seemed to practically ensure they lost the seat and got Democrats one step closer to a 60-seat majority. (As the next few months showed us, Stevens would have probably survived the November vote had he not insisted on an expedited trial that found him guilty.)

7. Ann Cao defeats Rep. Jefferson in New Orleans

Yes, Rep. William Jefferson was indicted on corruption charges and had been stripped of his committee assignments - but LA-02 is a heavily African-American district that is more Democratic than any red district is Republican! And even if the stars were aligned for an upset in New Orleans’ December 6th vote (the off-date election day caused a dramatic drop in black turnout), such districts simply never elect a Republican and practically no one thought that Ann Joseph Cao could prove an exception to that rule.

Yet, New Orleans residents had apparently had enough of their representative’s corruption and Cao defeated Jefferson by 3% in what should be described as one of the biggest upsets of the decade. An ecstatic John Boehner soon proclaimed, “The future is Cao.”

8. Rod Blagojevich is arrested

We long knew that Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich had legal problems, and we had even learned that the FBI was wiretapping some of his private conversations - and this is prior sense that something smelled fishy in Springfield is the reason this scandal is ranked so much lower than Eliot Spitzer’s.

But nothing prepared us for the December 9th news that Blagojevich had been taken into custody by FBI agents on corruption charges, nor for the shocking allegation that he had attempted to sell the Senate seat left vacant by Obama. What made the day so surreal was the quasi-insane scope of Blagojevich’s schemes: The prosecutor’s complaint document alleged a plot to shake down Warren Buffet, extort money from Bill Gates, cut a deal with a labor union, and even prepare a presidential run in 2016!

And the charges surrounding Obama’s Senate seat are just the tip of the iceberg! Blagojevich faces numerous other accusations, for example of having announced an $1.8 billion plan to construct new highways in exchange for a highway contractor’s pledge to raise half-a-million dollars for his upcoming campaign.

9. Obama is ahead in AK/IN/MT/NC/ND for the first time

By November 4th, Indiana, North Carolina and Montana had undoubtedly become toss-ups in the presidential election and it no longer seemed wild to predict an upset in North Dakota. Yet, all of these states used to be staunchly Republican states (Bush won Indiana by 21% in 2004, for instance) and a Democratic victory would have been unthinkable at the start of the cycle.

It took a long time for us to get used to thinking of any of these states as competitive, and it is doubtful whether anyone really believed Obama could pull any of them off until the first poll from each state that showed Obama in the lead. Every single one of those surveys was so shocking that they single-handedly upended every assumption we ever had about that state! Here’s a rundown:

  • On June 24th, a SUSA poll showed Obama ahead in Indiana by 1%. I wrote: “Today’s shocker comes in the form of a SUSA poll from Indiana — not the first state you think of when you wonder where the next exciting presidential poll will come from.”
  • On July 3rd, a Rasmussen poll had Obama ahead by 5% in Montana. I wrote: “This is obviously a stunner: Montana went for Bush by 20% in 2004, and even though the state’s Governor and two Senators are now Democrats, Montana is still considered a staunchly red state.”
  • On August 12th, Obama led his first Alaska poll, 45% to 40%. I wrote: “Today’s polling delivery does contain a surprise: The first Alaska poll to find Obama ahead (for that matter, this is probably the first Alaska presidential poll in quite a while to find any Democrat ahead)!”
  • On September 4th, a DFM Research poll found Obama leading by 3% in North Dakota. I wrote: “Seeing a Democratic presidential candidate leading by any margin here is truly remarkable.”
  • Finally, on September 25th, I devoted an entire post to a Rasmussen poll fro North Carolina with Obama leading 49% to 47%: “Today, the world as we know it changed in yet another red state: Obama has his first lead in North Carolina.”

Obama only won two of these five states, and by tiny margins. But these states proved extremely consequential, forcing Republicans to invest resources in North Carolina and Indiana at the expense of states like Colorado and Minnesota.

10. McCain’s rivals give him a free pass throughout January

This item might seem minor in comparison to the other stunners of this list, but the reluctance of McCain’s rivals to attack him throughout January remains for me the most incomprehensible event of the entire year!

The Arizona Senator was far behind throughout the fall of 2007, but he had emerged as a top contender by the first days of 2008. His New Hampshire victory left him as the man to beat; one more win looked like it would be enough for McCain to close the deal (which is exactly what happened).

Given that situation, I am still at a loss to explain why McCain’s rivals failed to challenge McCain throughout the South Carolina campaign - starting with the January 10th debate which left the Arizona Senator entirely unscathed. In my write-up of that debate, I asked, “Do Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee want John McCain to be the GOP nominee?”

As puzzling was Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson’s decision to not attack McCain from the Right in South Carolina despite the fact that a loss for either men was tantamount to the end of their presidential ambitions. Unlike 2000, then, no one arose to point out McCain’s apostasy on issues dear to social conservatives and McCain prevailed by 3%. A few days later, it was Rudy Giuliani’s turn to do the same in Florida, where he mysteriously gave up on an opportunity to capitalize on a rare major policy disagreement - McCain’s opposition to a national catastrophic fund, which Giuliani favors.

In fact, Huckabee spent more time praising the Arizona Senator than criticizing him. As Romney and McCain were engaged in some harsh rhetoric over the former’s alleged support of a withdrawal timetable, Huckabee rushed to McCain’s rescue.


Honorable mentions go to McCain’s unexpectedly flashy first celebrity ad featuring Britney Spears; to John Edwards’s unexpectedly early withdrawal a week before Super Tuesday; to Don Young’s November 4th survival; to McCain’s thoughtless mid-September decision to once again state that “the fundamentals of our economy are strong;” and to the dramatic September 7th Gallup poll that found McCain leading by double digits, leaving all Obama supporters speechless!


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2008 in review: The states that mattered

2008 is coming to a close, and it was such a crazy year that it is easy to forget some of the storylines that kept us entertained in the first part of the year. In an effort to review the major events of the year, here is a ranking of the 15 states that mattered the most in 2008.

1. North Carolina

The Tar Heel state was the epicenter of the 2008 election, and the state whose results were the most dramatic. First, it played a tremendous role in the Democratic primaries: Obama’s triumph in the May 6th primary effectively ended Hillary Clinton’s run. Later, North Carolina’s presidential, senatorial and gubernatorial races all unexpectedly became toss-ups, along with NC-08.

On the Senate side, the NRSC and DSCC invested millions on behalf of Kay Hagan and Elizabeth Dole. In the presidential race, the Obama campaign lavished attention on the state while McCain’s refused to take the Democratic threat seriously given that Bush had defeated Kerry by double-digits in 2004. By the time the GOP realized it needed to defend North Carolina, it was too late: the state’s 15 electoral votes might not have been decisive, but the millions McCain had to spend in the state and the time Palin wasted crisscrossing the state might have been.

Even if all of these forces had not been enough to earn North Carolina the top spot in this list, the November 4th results dramatically shook up the state’s politics as Democrats - Barack Obama, Kay Hagan, Bev Perdue and Larry Kissell - swept all of the state’s competitive races. This confirmed the changing demographics of North Carolina (and, more generally, of the mid-Atlantic states), and this certainly puts Republicans in a defensive position going forward.

2. Virginia

No state’s swing towards the Democratic Party was as important as Virginia’s. A historically red state, the Old Dominion had changed a lot since it gave George Bush two easy victories and Democrats had (poll-fueled) high hopes for the 2008 cycle after statewide successes in 2005 and 2006. The state’s relatively large size made it a must-win for the GOP: John McCain had virtually no path to an electoral college majority without Virginia’s 13 electoral votes.

This guaranteed a very heated general election campaign: We were treated to endless media coverage of Virginia’s race, countless polls, a heavy focus on the ground game, extensive analysis of the state’s geographical dynamics, lengthy exposes on the importance of Northern Virginia. McCain’s aides were perhaps the only people in the country not to take the Democratic threat seriously until the end of the summer: The GOP’s lateness in investing in the state sealed McCain’s fate.

Obama’s 6% victory confirms the Old Dominion’s metamorphosis, and it was accompanied by other Democratic triumphs: Former Governor Mark Warner easily won the open Senate seat previously held by a Republican, which means that both of the state’s Senate seats are now held by Democrats. And Democrats picked-up three House seats, taking control of the state’s House delegation. In fact, Perriello’s victory in VA-05 was the only true Democratic upset in the entire country - a fact that captures just how much Virginia swung in 2008.

3. Iowa

As 2008 started, all eyes were turned to Iowa, as both parties’ caucuses looked entirely unpredictable. The results set the tone for the rest of the year: Barack Obama’s triumph put him on track to winning the Democratic nomination while Mitt Romney’s stunning defeat left him crippled - opening the door to John McCain’s comeback.

Iowa also boosted Obama in the general election: It quickly emerged as the Bush state most likely to switch to Obama, allowing the Democrat to count on a sure gain of 7 electoral votes and accordingly focus on other red states. This didn’t prevent McCain from incomprehensibly contesting Iowa in the final weeks of 2008: The Republican nominee kept visiting the Hawkeye State and continued to spend on the state airwaves. Thus, not only was Iowa an easy pick-up for Obama, but it wasted the GOP’s time and money.

4. Alaska

Who could possibly have predicted a year ago how central a role Alaska would play in 2008? We had some inkling that Ted Stevens could face a difficult re-election race, but nothing had prepared us for what was to come. First came Barack Obama’s unexpected competitiveness in general election polls, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich’s Senate candidacy and Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell’s Club of Growth-backed primary challenge against longtime Rep. Don Young.

Then came the summer, and with it a stunning sequence of events that transformed The Anchorage Daily News as the daily political bible throughout the second half of 2008. Ted Stevens’s indictment threw havoc in the Senate race; the Young-Parnell primary was so close as too be unresolved for weeks; McCain decided to tap Governor Sarah Palin as his running-mate, which led hundreds of journalists to swarm Alaska and every single one of the state’s quirks to be exposed to the rest of the country; Ted Stevens’s expedited trial opened in DC and was marred with repeated prosecutorial errors that threatened to dismiss the entire case; and Stevens was convicted on all seven counts just one week before Election Day!

As if all of that was not enough, November 4th brought its own share of drama: Rep. Young’s survival was undoubtedly the biggest upset of the night, and Sen. Stevens (now a convicted felon) hang on to a 3% lead for ten days after the election before the count of the remaining ballots allowed Begich to clinch a 1% victory. If anything, this entire sequence confirmed just how staunchly Republican a state Alaska remains.

5. Michigan

The Wolverine State long looked like it would be the most important battleground of the 2008 election, and its culturally conservative electorate was supposed to represent Obama’s struggles with blue-collar voters. Instead, Michigan will be remembered as one of the most decisive states of 2008 because of how uncompetitive it became in the fall. (It is easy to forget how vulnerable Michigan looked last spring given Obama’s 16% victory.)

McCain’s truly stunning decision in early October to withdraw from the state was the first clear sign that his campaign was running out of options, and Michigan became a symbol of how quickly blue-collar voters swung to the Democratic column once the financial meltdown replaced cultural concerns with economic ones. The GOP’s complete collapse had dire repercussions in down-the-ballot races, starting with the defeat of two Republican incumbents in MI-07 and MI-09.

And Michigan also played an important role in both parties’ primaries in the first half of 2008. On the GOP side, the state became Mitt Romney’s last stand, and Romney’s victory against runner-up McCain allowed him to go on to die another day. On the Democratic side, primary day itself was insignificant given that only Clinton and Dodd’s names were on the ballot; but the situation became a complete quagmire as the primary season progressed and Clinton demanded Michigan (and Florida)’s delegates. A revote seemed likely for a while and the issue reached a climax at the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting in May.

6. Nevada

If Republicans might afford no longer being competitive in New Mexico (see below), they cannot also let go of Nevada. But the 2008 results suggest that might have already have happened. At the time of George Bush’s 3% victory in 2004, the state had as many registered Republicans as registered Democrats. This year, Democrats have a decisive edge of 100,000 voters, and that was enough to propel Obama to a 12% triumph, an impressive 15% swing from the 2004 results.

In fact, most people forget that picking-up nothing but New Mexico, Nevada and Iowa (the three red states he won the most decisively) would have been enough for Obama to win the White House. Forget Ohio, Virginia and Colorado, then: The Silver State was more decisive than all of them.

Making Nevada even more entertaining in 2008 was the very competitive Democratic caucuses that resulted in a confusing lawsuit about at-large caucus locations, complete chaos during the proceedings, a narrow Clinton victory and Obama’s accusations of fraud. The state also hosted a competitive House race won by Democrats.

7. New Mexico

New Mexico is too small and too Western a state to attract that much media attention, but those who follow politics closely know that the state’s transformation is as dramatic as any. After seeing dramatically tight finishes in 2000 and 2004, New Mexico decisively swung blue this year. Perhaps most importantly, it did so early in the year, providing Obama with a second sure pick-up (after Iowa) and leaving him only five electoral votes away the White House.

In fact, Obama’s victory looked so certain that no one was surprised at his 15% triumph on November 4th - but that’s a stunning 16% swing from the 2004 results. And the state also colored itself blue on other levels: Tom Udall easily picked-up the Senate seat occupied by Republican Pete Domenici and Democrats comfortably conquered GOP-held NM-01 and NM-02, leaving them with full control of the state’s entire congressional delegation!

8. Pennsylvania

To this day, it is difficult to explain why McCain chose the Keystone State as his last stand. All polls showed Obama leading by double-digits, Democrats had posted dramatic registration gains in the four years since John Kerry’s victory in 2004, and Obama had a massive ground game in place throughout the state. Perhaps McCain thought that if one state displayed the Bradley effect, it would be Pennsylvania and its culturally conservative Democrats; perhaps it was just that McCain had to make a last stand somewhere. Whatever the reason, Pennsylvania became the state to follow in the final weeks of the general election, and an avalanche of polls gave us plenty to talk about daily.

And it’s not like we had been ignoring the state before October. The relentless - and somewhat excessive - focus on Pennsylvania was launched in the Democratic primaries: Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama devoted themselves to the state’s April 22nd primary for six long weeks that saw no other contest. These six weeks were marked by bittergate and Jeremiah Wrigth, making the PA primary into a case study of Obama’s appeal among blue-collar voters.

The primary result was not favorable to Obama, and it sparked months of articles in all media outlets analyzing Obama’s chances in the Keystone State. Could he hold on to Clinton voters? Could he capture the blue-collar electorate? Was race losing him votes? How about Biden’s suburbs in Scranton? How about the ever-shifting Philly suburbs? How about Ed Rendell’s big mouth?

Pennsylvania’s importance was magnified by the abnormally large number of vulnerable Democratic incumbents, including Jack Murtha who was added at the last minute after he called his district’s residents “racist.” Democrats triumphed on Election Night, holding on to all their endangered seats (somewhat unexpectedly saving PA-11) while picking-up PA-03.

9. Colorado

The Centennial State proved to be one of the most important in the general election. A traditionally Republican state, Colorado looked like a toss-up from the beginning of the year and both parties (and the press) treated it accordingly. Both campaigns invested significant sums to run ads, articles were written about the state’s demographics, dozens of polls were conducted throughout the summer and fall. Furthermore, Democrats organized their party’s convention in Denver, allowing the media to review the state’s competitiveness for an entire week.

Unlike Ohio and Florida, Colorado had not usurped its status as a battleground state. Barack Obama, who trailed in very few of the state’s polls, looked very well positioned to capture the state’s 9 electoral votes; this means that Colorado looked like the red state most likely to fall to Obama’s column along Iowa and New Mexico - and that would have been enough to give him the presidency! This is why McCain’s stunning late-October decision (reported by CNN’s John King) to scale back his Colorado campaign was tantamount to his conceding the entire election.

Colorado thus sealed the GOP’s defeat in the presidential election, but the importance of the state’s blue turn is magnified by the results of the congressional elections. Colorado hosted a competitive Senate race in which a large number of independent groups spent significant amounts; Mark Udall picked-up the seat for Democrats. And socially conservative Rep. Marylin Musgrave’s double-digit defeat in CO-04 was one of the most emblematic House results of November 4th.

10. Ohio

Ohio’s influence on the presidential election has been overrated. In 2004, John Kerry did tie his presidential prospects to Ohio, but that was certainly not the case with the Obama campaign. Indeed, it was hard to see a scenario under which Obama lost Nevada, Virginia and Colorado (all states that would have been enough to clinch the White House) but somehow prevailed in Ohio. Yet, the Buckeye State was regularly portrayed as Ground Zero of the election, and received a corresponding amount of media attention.

That said, Obama’s 4% victory was highly symbolic of his progress among the very same voters that massively rejected him during the Democratic primaries. Ohio’s March 4th contest had become Hillary Clinton’s last stand, and it looked like Obama might manage to pull an upset; but Ohio voters rallied behind Hillary, ushered in the narrative of Obama’s troubles among blue-collar voters and prolonged the Democratic primaries by three months!

Ohio was also a very important state at the congressional level. Democrats picked-up three of the four House races they were contesting, an impressive result that left them in control of the state’s House delegation. In particular, Democrats defeated Rep. Chabot, a perennial target whose defeat can be attributed to the rise in African-American turnout.

11. New Hampshire

The Granite State played an decisive role in both parties’ primaries. McCain’s comeback victory in the January 8th primary was not enough for him to clinch the Republican nomination, but it transformed him overnight from an unlikely contender into the man to beat. Whether this represented a good development for the GOP can be debated for the years to come. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton’s victory was not unexpected given the polls of the preceding six months, but it proved to be the biggest shocker of 2008 by the standards of Obama’s post-Iowa boom - enough of a shocker to throw the Democratic primaries into a five month-long overtime.

New Hampshire continued to be a topic of conversation as the year progressed, as it hosted competitive presidential, senatorial and House elections. In fact, New Hampshire long looked like a Kerry state that could fall in McCain’s column, and polls found a toss-up until the end of September, when Obama put the state away.  In the Senate race, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen and incumbent Senator John Sununu waged a heated rematch of their 2002 battle; while Shaheen led from the first through the last day, the GOP was convinced Sununu could pull a comeback. And in NH-01, Rep. Shea-Porter long looked like one of the most endangered Democratic incumbents; she narrowly survived on November 4th.

12. California

As usual, no one paid attention to California’s presidential election, but the Golden State got two sizable consolation prizes. On February 5th, it hosted the most important Super Tuesday primary battles for both parties: John McCain’s easy victory was the last straw that pushed Mitt Romney out of the race; and Hillary Clinton’s sizable win allowed her to survive an otherwise-disappointing day. Later , Proposition 8 was placed on California’s ballot, guaranteeing that voters witness a heated political battle. The state’s airwaves were inundated by vicious ads attacking gay rights, and liberal groups were too slow at taking the threat seriously. On November 4th, many were following Prop 8 just as closely as the presidential election - and its passage put a dent in an otherwise great night for Democratic activists.

13. Minnesota

Minnesota played an important role in the general election alone, but not a particularly crucial one. Along with states like Washington, Oregon and Wisconsin, Minnesota was one of those blue states that Republicans were hoping to contest but that got out of reach after Obama’s September surge. That said, Republicans were always surprisingly hopeful about Minnesota. Their decision to organize the GOP convention in the Twin Cities and Governor Pawlenty’s presence at the top of McCain’s veepstakes ensured that the state remained in presidential new.

And there were plenty of other storylines that made Minnesota an ultra-political state this year. It all started with the state’s February 5th caucus: No one paid attention to it before the results were announced, but it is through his huge victories in caucus states like MN, CO and WA that Obama opened an insurmountable delegate lead. Later, the state hosted two competitive House seats, including Michelle Bachmann’s re-election race in MN-06 that became one of the most high-profiles in the country after the incumbent’s rant against Obama’s “anti-American” activities.

And do I even need to mention the Senate race between Al Franken and Norm Coleman? The contest was one of the year’s most entertaining even before a virtual Election Night tie launched a still-unresolved recount process. Coleman and Franken aired what were arguably the most vicious attack ads of the cycle - not to mention the lawsuits that the two camps hurled at each other in the last week of October or the presence of a colorful third-party candidate and Jesse Ventura’s flirtations with a run!

14. New York

The Empire State might be an unconventional choice for a spot in the list of states that mattered given that it was competitive in neither of the primaries nor in the general election. In fact, New York arguably lost influence in 2008 since the dream of an all-New York general election came crashing down with Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani’s prospects.

That said, two major storylines kept us entertained. First was the scandal that engulfed Governor Eliot Spitzer last spring. In a matter of days, Spitzer went from potential presidential candidate in 2016 to looking like a political pariah forced to resign because of his foolish hypocrisy and potentially criminal actions. With Spitzer’s departure, David Paterson became the state’s first African-American and the nation’s first legally blind Governor.

The second storyline is the continued agony of the Empire State’s once-dominant Republican Party. In November, the GOP lost the majority in the state Senate for the first time in decades - and with it its last seat of power in state politics; Republicans also lost three House seats. Democrats now control a remarkable 26 of the state’s 29 districts. And no race symbolized the state GOP’s collapse as much as the NY-13, where rising Republican star Vito Fossella was forced to retire after a DUI scandal uncovered his marital infidelities and where a bizarre sequence of events revealed the extent of the GOP’s disarray.

15. Georgia

At the start of the year, few people would have predicted that this Republican-trending state would be a central battleground. But the closer we got to the election, the more eyes turned towards the Peach State. Barack Obama’s fairly stunning early-summer decision to invest resources in Georgia gave him a strong ground game and the state became the case study in the increase in black turnout (especially since the state’s election board updated its early voting statistics daily). This gave Democrats hope that they would do well across the South, and my last presidential ratings moved Georgia to the toss-up column.

The GOP’s under-performance extended to the Senate race. No one rated Senator Saxby Chambliss as endangered for much of the cycle (I ranked his race 17th in July), but the Democratic enthusiasm combined with the economic crisis plunged Chambliss in an unexpectedly difficult re-election race against Democratic nominee Jim Martin. The November 4th saw Chambliss falling just short of the 50% necessary for an immediate victory, throwing the race in a runoff campaign during which Georgia had the country’s undivided attention!

Honorable mentions go to Florida, which all but guaranteed that McCain would be the GOP nominee before crushing his presidential hopes in the fall; Wisconsin, which arguably gave Obama his most important primary victory; Indiana, which hosted one of the most competitive Democratic primaries before emerging as the most stunning of general election battlegrounds; Missouri, which gave Obama a crucial Super Tuesday victory before damaging its reputation as a presidential bellwether in the general election; and Louisiana, which treated us to a last-minute stunner on December 6th.


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Colorado’s seat: Gender concerns, Dem withdrawals and the GOP field

Stung that she was not considered a top contender for Ken Salazar’s Senate seat, Rep. Diana DeGette has ensured that her name will part of the conversation by injecting gender as an important consideration.

The abysmally low number of African-American and Hispanic Senators have made race one of the factors discussed in relation to the IL, NY and CO appointments, but the small number of female Senators has generally not been addressed. But Colorado’s particularly poor gender record gave DeGette an opening.

It’s kind of ridiculous that after all these years, we’ve never had a woman [as governor or U.S. senator],” DeGette pointed out. “I don’t think the press or the chattering class seriously consider any of the women candidates.”

In fact, based on my quick research, no woman has won the Democratic or the Republican nomination in a gubernatorial or senatorial race since 1998, when two women topped the state’s Democratic ticket and lost to Senator Ben Campbell and soon-to-be-Governor Bill Owens.

Yet, the prospect of a female Senator decreased this week when Lieutenant Governor Barbara O’Brien and State Treasurer Cary Kennedy withdrew their name from consideration, limiting the number of women Governor Bill Ritter will consider. (This same phenomenon happened in New York, where Reps. Nydia Velasquez Nita Lowey announced they did not want Hillary’s Senate seat even though they were considered front-runners for the position.)

This leaves DeGette and former state Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald as the to women contenders for Salazar’s seat; EMILY’s List has been pushing oil heiress Swanee Hunt. The latter doesn’t live in Colorado, so it might be a bit of a stretch for Ritter to bypass state Democrats to choose a Massachusetts resident.

Two other important developments in Colorado concern male contenders. First is the withdrawal of Bill Clinton’s Transportation Secretary and former Denver Mayor Federico Peña. It was speculated that it would be hard for Salazar to deny Peña the post if he wanted it, so this certainly clears the field for other candidates - starting with Denver’s current Mayor.

John Hickenlooper confirmed his interest in the Senate seat for the first time this week, adding that he had already had a “formal” conversation with Ritter. Hickenlooper explained that, “If you take someone like me who has spent most of his life in business and then at some point decides to give 10 to 15 years to public service, and you want to be useful, then you want to get the maximum benefit out of that public service.”

On the GOP side, meanwhile, there is unsurprisingly far less movement. It is hard to blame potential Republican candidates for taking their time when they do not know who they would have to face in 2010 - and whether Ritter’s appointment might limit other seats.

For instance, U.S. Attorney Troy Eid said last week that he was eying a Senate run but that he might also run in the state’s 7th congressional district if Ritter chooses Rep. Ed Perlmutter as Senator. (Let this be a reminder that a Perlmutter pick would pave the way to a competitive special election this spring.)

Other potential Republican candidates who have acknowledged their interest include Rep. Tom Tancredo, state Attorney General John Suthers and former Rep. Scott McInnis. I do not believe that Bill Owens or John Elway have recently made public statements. I remain skeptical that either would run after they passed on an open seat in 2008.


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Caroline Kennedy, the Bloomberg connection and the daily drip of policy positions

Caroline Kennedy continues her charm offensive in New York amid contrasting chatter as to her chances. Some sources portray her as the clear favorite, while others insist that her open campaigning has so annoyed Gov. Paterson that her chances have gone down significantly. The latter narrative is gaining steam, however, and this much-discussed New York Times article captures this change in conventional wisdom.

One major source of trouble for Kennedy is that she is being increasingly portrayed as Mike Bloomberg’s creature. As Bloomberg’s entourage is actively supporting Kennedy’s quest, many are annoyed at the New York City’s Mayor’s intrusion in Democratic politics and they worry that Kennedy would be beholden to Bloomberg. Such concerns led Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver (one of the state’s most powerful Democrats) to announce his opposition to Kennedy’s appointment on Wednesday:

“And if I were the governor, I would look and question whether this is the appointment I would want to make: whether her first obligation might be to the mayor of the City of New York, rather than to the governor who would be appointing her,

Kennedy further hurt her cause when she refused to answer whether she would back Bloomberg’s Democratic opponent in the 2009 mayoral race. It would certainly hurt the Democrats’ mayoral chances for one of the state’s two Democratic Senators to remain conspicuously absent, and this will undoubtedly motivate Rep. Anthony Weiner (a probable mayoral candidate) to take a firmer stance against a Kennedy appointment.

All of this said, it is difficult to talk about Kennedy’s “Bloomberg connection” since it is unlikely she would be talked this close to a Senate seat without her Bloomberg connection.

Kennedy also seems determined to continue channeling Sarah Palin; as if her lack of a public record and her early reluctance to talk to journalists were not enough, Kennedy is now displaying her status as a mother as one of her chief qualifications to be a Senator.

In the same interviews, Kennedy is explicitly bringing up her last name, openly using the legend of Camelot as a cover for her lack of a public record. “I think I bring a lifetime of experience to this,” she said today on NY1. “In my family public service is really the greatest honor anyone can have, it’s a legacy I cherish, and that I’ve tried to live up to my whole life.”

And Kennedy is seeking to complement the dearth of recorded policy positions by taking positions on some issues here and there (generally those that have a national scope like gay marriage rather than those that have a local resonance).

On many issues, Kennedy’s vague answers are as evasive as those of other candidates. Her newly articulated position on NAFTA, for instance, is not more incoherent than Barack Obama’s and Hillary Clinton’s were last spring (the New York Times describes it as such: “She expressed some concern about what she described as ‘unintended, negative consequences…’ but stopped short of saying that it should be modified”).

The difference is that we have nothing other than Kennedy’s current statements with which to judge her interest in policy matters and assess her political ideology and policy positions. This makes her cherry-picking which issues to suddenly articulate a public position on somewhat difficult to stomach.

None of this is to say that Kennedy’s prospects have faded since last week, nor that she isn’t at the top of Paterson’s Senate seat. All we are observing is that Kennedy is now being hurt by the length of this appointment process.

Hillary’s appointment to the State Department was announced weeks ago, but Paterson will not designate her successor before Clinton is approved by the Senate and resigns from her seat. This will not happen before mid-January, meaning that the New York press is forced to draw out the story and find subplots to explore, making it difficult for any front-runner to keep his or her position before the conventional wisdom changes to keep the story interesting.

The best hope for Kennedy’s rivals is that Kennedy draws more criticism as she remains in the spotlight (Silver’s anti-Caroline diatribe was already a major coup for Kennedy’s opponents), allowing for another Democrat (perhaps Andrew Cuomo, or Thomas Suozzi, Jerry Nadler, Kirsten Gillibrand) to lobby his or her way into Paterson’s favor without drawing the ire of the rest of the Democratic establishment.

Update: And the daily drip continues with this Times article: “In an extensive sit-down discussion Saturday morning with The New York Times, she still seemed less like a candidate than an idea of one: eloquent but vague, largely undefined and seemingly determined to remain that way.”


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Certification is looming in Minnesota race

Norm Coleman has few paths left to him to overturn Al Franken 47-vote lead, and the state Supreme Court made his life that much more difficult with its Christmas Eve ruling on the (confusing) issue of potentially double-counted ballots.

The Coleman campaign was seeking to prevent the state canvassing board from certifying a winner until the dispute was taken care of. In other words, it was arguing that the matter should be decided by the canvassing board rather than in the courtroom.

This matters a great deal: For the issue to be left to courts means that the canvassing board could certify Al Franken as the winner before a judge rules on double-counted ballots. Coleman would then be stuck in the unenviable position of contesting certified results, a difficult proposition both legally and in regards to public opinion.

Last week, the canvassing board ruled that it did not have the jurisdiction to consider this issue because it cannot hear extrinsic evidence; the Supreme Court unanimously upheld this decision yesterday and invited Coleman to file lawsuits if it wants to pursue the matter. The GOP left no doubt that it was intending to do just that. “It will be the [court] stage now that we must resort to if those become the margin of victory for Franken,” said a Coleman lawyer.

This leaves the 1,600 improperly rejected absentee ballots as Coleman’s only hope to take the lead before the canvassing board’s certification. Put it otherwise: If Al Franken had not clamored for this fifth pile of ballot to be counted, there would be no more obstacle to his becoming the certified winner!

Unfortunately for Democrats, 1,600 is a large enough number that anything is possible and Franken’s 47-vote lead means very little, even though these ballots were always expected to break towards the Democrat.

Coleman’s other hopes would all take place as litigation to be resolved after the canvassing board’s certification. These will involve the double-counted ballots, Minneapolis’s 133 missing ballots, and perhaps an attempt to throw out the 1,600 absentee ballots depending on how their tally turns out.

And make no mistake about it. For Al Franken to be certified the winner would make him look legitimate and cast Coleman in an uncomfortable position, but it would certainly not guarantee the failure of litigation: These lawsuits would all represent major threats that could overturn a Franken victory.

(In fact, the Supreme Court made it clear yesterday that its ruling was not meant to close the chapter of double-counted ballots. As the AP puts it, “Associate Justice Alan Page made it clear the issue of duplicate ballots was unresolved and said the court’s ruling was not binding in a future lawsuit.”)

One looming (and potentially major) issue: What will Senate Democrats do once the 111th Congress reconvenes?

That Democrats have a large majority in the Senate could ultimately emerge as Franken’s ultimate trump card. Even though they are unlikely to do anything dramatic, there are ways in which they could influence the process: If Al Franken is certified the winner, Senate Democrats could hurry his seating - even if his margin is narrow and still contested. If Norm Coleman takes a narrow single-digit lead after absentee ballots are counted and is thus certified the winner, Senate Democrats could block Coleman from being seated - at least until court challenges are resolved; they could perhaps launch their own investigation (as occurred chaotically in 1974).


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2010: Matthews inching away, Palin’s Alaska strength

Over the past few weeks, speculation has been increasing that Chris Matthews laid the groundwork of a Senate run only in order to improve the terms of his contract with MSNBC. Call me naive, but I chose to believe that Matthews couldn’t be that much of a cynic. But the latest developments suggest that Matthews might indeed be inching away from a jump into politics that just a few weeks ago looked all but certain.

Consider this interview with the president of NBC (Matthews’s employer):

Q: Right, Mr. Zaidi could take over for Chris when Chris goes off to run for office.
A: [Chris Matthews] is not running for office.
Q: He’s not?
A: I don’t think so. Well, look, if he were running for office, he wouldn’t be on TV.

Matthews has indicated he will announce his decision in the weeks ahead; while an exit would certainly shake-up the race, other Democrats (Reps. Schwarz and Murphy, for instance) were already looking at the race and it’s not like Matthews was scaring other Democrats away.

Meanwhile, a new Research 2000 poll confirms that Alaska is one of the reddest states in the country. The survey tests all three of 2010’s statewide races and finds little for Republicans to worry about. In particular, the poll confirms that Sarah Palin remains highly popular in her home state: She enjoys an approval rating of 60% and she would be favored to win whatever job she runs for in 2010 - including the Senate seat currently held by fellow Republican Lisa Murkowski:

  • In a primary showdown with Murkowski, Palin demolishes the incumbent 55% to 31%.
  • In the Senate’s general election, Palin beats former Governor Tony Knowles 53% to 39% and demolishes state Senator Hollis French 58% to 27%. Murkowski would also be favored to win the general election if she makes it there: She leads Knowles 49% to 41% and French 56% to 27%.
  • No danger for Palin in a gubernatorial general election, as she crushes Knowles 55% to 38% and posts a strong re-elect of 51%, while only 16% want to replace her.

Needless to say, a Murkowski-Palin battle would be one of the most entertaining races of the 2010 cycle if Palin chooses to go down that path. In 2006, Palin defeated Murwkoski’s father (then the incumbent Governor) in the GOP’s gubernatorial primary, so this would constitute the second episode of a family feud. As if that was not enough, Palin’s running for Senate would attract national spotlights as it would be viewed as the prelude of a presidential run in 2012 or 2016.

Whichever Republican makes it to the general election in the gubernatorial and senatorial races should have little to worry about. While Knowles keeps Murkowski under 50% in the Senate race, he is unlikely to run after consecutive defeats in the 2004 Senate race (against Murkowski) and the 2006 Governor’s race (against Palin). This leaves the House race for Democrats to focus on. Rep. Don Young’s survival was the second biggest upset of the 2008 cycle (after Anh Cao’s victory in New Orleans). Young trailed Democratic nominee Ethan Berkowitz throughout 2008, often by huge margins; but he ended winning by 5% despite the ethics scandals surrounding him. Research 2000’s poll now finds him leading Berkowitz 49% to 46% despite an atrocious approval rating.

As we learned in 2008, Alaska voters only consider voting for a Democrat if the Republican nominee is a convicted felon; and even there Ted Stevens got much closer to winning re-election than most people expected.


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First Senate rankings: Republicans once again stuck in defense

Over the past two cycles, Republicans lost 13 Senate seats (14 if Al Franken emerges victorious in Minnesota). And the GOP’s Senate nightmare is set to continue for the third cycle in a row: 2004 was a great year for Senate Republicans, so they have many more vulnerable seats to defend in 2010.

No matter what the political environment will be in two years, Republicans are looking to spend yet another cycle playing defense and Democrats are more likely than not to gain the one or two seats they will need to finally achieve a filibuster-proof majority.

The ramifications of Barack Obama’s victory have given the GOP new life in Delaware, Colorado, Illinois and New York, but that cannot obscure this simple statistic: Of the cycle’s 10 most vulnerable Senate seats, only two are currently in Democratic hands. Those are tough numbers for Republicans to face given how few seats they have already been left with.

That said, a number of Dem-held seats could become competitive under the right circumstances, and a tremendous recruiting job on the part of the NRSC would allow Republicans play offense. They have no room for error: They will need Arnold Schwarzenegger in California, John Hoeven in North Dakota, Linda Lingle in Hawaii, Mike Castle in Delaware, Mark Kirk in Illinois. Such a dream team of Republican candidates would shuffle up the deck and put Democrats in a difficult position.

Even with such a dream team, however, it is unimaginable that the GOP could conquer a Senate majority. The GOP’s objective will be to position itself well for 2012, a natural time for offense and a cycle in which Democrats will have a disproportionate number of seats to defend due to their successes in 2000 and 2006.

Needless to say, 22 months remain before the 2010 Election, and a lot will happen recruitment and retirement-wise in the coming months. In fact, I can identify only three seats (ID, UT and NY [Schumer]) with no conceivable scenario under which they would be competitive. Even VT and CT could become interesting if popular Republican Governors jump in! Underlying these rankings, then, are dozens of assumptions: It is for instance very unlikely that Govs. Douglas and Rell will challenge Sens. Leahy and Dodd and it is more plausible that Gov. Sebelius runs. We should expect many surprises to dramatically shuffle these rankings throughout 2009.

2010senate1

For now, we can proceed with the following breakdown, with some uncertainty due to the unresolved Coleman-Franken race:

  • Safe Democratic: 47-48
  • Safe/Likely Democratic: 55-56
  • Safe/Likely/Lean Democratic: 58-59
  • Toss-ups: 3
  • Safe/Likely/Lean Republican: 38-39
  • Safe/Likely Republican: 33-34
  • Safe Republican: 31-32

Outlook: A 1-5 seat gain for Democrats.

Toss-ups (3 R, 0 D)

1. Kentucky (Jim Bunning)

A former baseball star, Bunning has never fully grown into his politician costume - so much that Republicans would most certainly be helped if Bunning decided to retire. His failure to raise much money combined with his age (he will be 79 by the next Election Day) has sparked speculation that he will do so - and the NRSC is certainly hoping to get such good news.

Bunning won his first two terms in extremely tough races, by 0.5% in 1998 and 1.4% in 2004. No one was paying attention to that latter race until the closing weeks of the campaign. But Bunning’s numbers collapsed in the closing stretch due to a number of bizarre incidents and senior moments. There is no reason for Bunning not to repeat such faux pas this year, and his lack of stature makes him an appealing target - even a state that has been trending Republican.

A number of Democrats are likely to jump in the race whether or not Bunning runs for re-election (in fact, some declined to run against McConnell in 2008 hoping to have a clearer shot at Bunning). Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo (Bunning’s 2004 opponent) has acknowledged that he is looking at the race; other potential candidates include Rep. Chandler, who many consider as the strongest Democrat and state Auditor Crit Luallen.

2. Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter)

Arlen Specter is one of the Senate’s most powerful Republican members, but he is also highly endangered - if he even chooses to run for re-election. Unfortunately for Republicans, an open seat would improve nothing: Unlike in Kentucky, the seat’s vulnerability is not related to the incumbent’s unpopularity and Specter’s retirement would only increase Democratic prospects.

If Specter chooses to seek another term, he could face as competitive a primary as a general election. Former Rep. Pat Toomey, who Specter defeated by less than 2% in a nasty primary in 2004, is considering another run; Toomey now heads the conservative Club for Growth and considers Specter a “Republican in Name Only.” Indeed, the incumbent has a moderate profile and his vote over the next two years could make him even more vulnerable to a challenge from the right (Democrats have high hopes for Specter to join them on card-checks, for instance). In addition, a significant number of moderate Republicans have left the party since 2004 and will be unable to vote for Specter in the state’s closed primary.

Democrats would love nothing more than to face Toomey in the general election, as they are convinced that he is too conservative to be elected statewide. But they are also confident about challenging Specter, and the Democratic primaries could be as entertaining as the GOP’s. Hardball host Chris Matthews is considering a run and should announce his intentions in the coming weeks; at least two House members, Reps. Allison Schwarz and Patrick Murphy, could also jump in. All would make strong challengers, and a number of polls have already found Specter and Matthews in a toss-up.

3. Florida (Open)

Unpopular Senator Mel Martinez knew he was the Democrats’ number 1 target in the next cycle and chose not to even try holding on to his seat. His mid-November retirement announcement throws a lifeline to Republicans who have a far stronger bench in the state than Democrats.

The GOP’s dream candidate is former Governor Jeb Bush. Jeb left the office in 2006 with high approval ratings and national ambitions, but he will have to deal with his unpopular last name. Republicans insist that Jeb has never been handicapped by his brother’s troubles, but this is somewhat disingenuous: Jeb has not faced voters since 2002, a year in which Dubya was still highly popular. It is difficult to know how formidable Jeb would be now that the Bush name has become so toxic.

Meanwhile, Democrats hope to recruit Alex Sink, the state CFO. Sink announced she would not run but Martinez’s unexpected retirement caused her to reconsider her decision; Sink has already met with DSCC officials in Washington. The consensus appears to be that Sink is unlikely to run if the race appears too difficult, so a Jeb candidacy could be enough to scare her away.

Both parties have many other potential candidates, but none that has enough stature to clear the primary field. In other words, both parties could feature divisive battles if Bush and Sink do not run, and this could be an important factor in the general election: Florida holds September primaries, leaving a bruised nominee very little time to turn around and contest the general election.

Lean Retention (6 R, 3 D)

4. Missouri (Kit Bond)

Kit Bond has won four senatorial elections in Missouri, but the highest share he ever received was 56% in 2004. That statistic alone sums up Bond’s vulnerability, and the incumbent could face a top-tier challenger in 2010 if the DSCC manages to recruit Secretary of State Robin Carnahan - the latest prodigy of Missouri’s illustrious political dynasty; a recent Research 2000 poll found Bond leading Carnahan by 4%. Other potential candidates include Robin’s brother Russ and
state Auditor Susan Montee.

That said, Bond can count on the once-bellwether state’s increasingly reliable Republican nature. That John McCain prevailed in Missouri when he lost in all other competitive states (including Indiana) suggests that the state GOP still knows how to win elections.

5. Colorado (Unknown)

Senator Ken Salazar’s appointment to the Interior Department complicates Democratic efforts to hold on to the seat, but Salazar was already up for re-election in 2010 and he himself looked vulnerable. Going forward, it is difficult to handicap the race before we know who Democratic Governor Bill Ritter will appoint as Salazar’s successor. Interestingly, the different contenders are split along more substantive lines than in Illinois and New York, by which I mean that differences in policy preferences and ideology are part of the Colorado conversation.

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper and Rep. John Salazar are conservative Democrats, and the former has antagonized unions; Rep. Ed Permlutter is closer to labor; former Senate candidate Ted Strickland is a top executive as a health insurance company; and state House Speaker Romanoff and Rep. Diana DeGette have a more liberal profile. Mark Udall demonstrated that CO can elect progressive Senator, but Ritter himself is conservative. That makes it difficult to imagine him choosing someone like DeGette and it might be enough to give the advantage to Hickenlooper.

Whichever Democrat Ritter chooses will have one major advantage in 2010: The GOP’s thin bench. The Republicans’ dream candidate is former Governor Bill Owen, yet Owens - who left office in 2006 - might no longer be formidable: A recent poll showed him handily defeated by Hickenlooper and Salazar. Not to mention that Owens passed on an open seat in 2008, so why would he now challenge an incumbent? Other potential Republican candidates include former Rep. McInnis, former football star John Elway and Rep. Tom Tancredo. (The latter faces clear electability issues in the general election, but Republicans are worried he would be hard to beat in the primary.)

6. New Hampshire (Judd Gregg)

Over the past three cycles, no state has shifted blue as dramatically as New Hampshire. In 2004, Democrats unexpectedly picked-up the governorship. In 2006, they shocked the political world by unseating the state’s two Republican House members and seizing both chambers of the state legislature. In 2008, Jeanne Shaheen toppled Senator Sununu, leaving Judd Gregg as the Democrats’ only target in what used to be a Republican stronghold.

A number of Democrats are looking at this race - perhaps too many. The DSCC’s dream candidate is popular Governor Lynch who just won re-election with 70% of the vote; however, Lynch has to seek re-election again in 2010 so he would have to give up the governor’s mansion to challenge Gregg. Two other candidates who are eying the race Rep. Paul Hodes and Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. Hodes is often described as the strongest competitor, but Shea-Porter is regularly underestimated. She could prove a formidable candidate if she can repeat statewide her district-level exploits.

7. North Carolina (Richard Burr)

This is North Carolina’s cursed Senate seat: It has switched parties in the past five elections, and Democrats are hoping to prolong the streak by defeating freshman Senator Richard Burr. Democrats have a very deep bench in North Carolina. Most often mentioned are Attorney General Roy Cooper, former Attorney General Richard Moore, outgoing Governor Mike Easley, Rep. Heath Shuler. And the list goes on: Any number of contenders jumping in would make this a top-tier race. In fact, a recent PPP poll found Cooper leading Burr, a worrisome early sign of vulnerability for the incumbent.

Democratic hopes were surely boosted by the results of the 2008 election: Barack Obama, Beverly Perdue and Kay Hagan’s victories suggest that Democrats have identified a roadmap for statewide victory. And that will certainly help the DSCC recruit a top-tier challenger.

8. Nevada (Harry Reid)

It is hard to believe how much Harry Reid’s fortunes have improved since early November. Once considered one of the cycles most endangered incumbents, Reid enjoyed two strokes of luck when his top two potential challengers were damaged. First, Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki was indicted on charges of misappropriation and falsification of accounts; this all but eliminates him from the Senate race. Second, Rep. Jon Porter lost his House seat, 48% to 42%; he is still considering a Senate run, but he will have a harder time mounting a solid and well-financed campaign.

That said, Reid remains highly vulnerable and for a very simple reason: He is deeply unpopular. A recent Research 2000 poll showed him with an approval rating of 38%; that’s deadly territory. The GOP might not have enough of a bench to guarantee a top-tier challenger, but Reid could be defeated by any credible Republicans. That same Research 2000 poll showed Reid leading Porter 46% to 40%; needless to say, it is not a good sign for the Senate Majority Leader to only manage such a narrow lead against someone who lost with barely 42% of the vote in his own re-election race.

9. Louisiana (David Vitter)

This is perhaps the most perplexing race of the cycle, and it is no surprise that it is occurring in the state that hosted the most perplexing contest of the past cycle (Landrieu-Kennedy). Once considered a rising Republican star, David Vitter would have had nothing to worry about if he had not gotten mixed up in the D.C Madam’s prostitution ring; last year, Vitter was forced to issue an apology and acknowledge a “very serious sin.”

In any other state, that might be enough to end a politician’s career. But once proudly Democratic Louisiana has given itself almost entirely to the Republican Party - so much so that there is only one Democrat left in the House delegation and Senator Mary Landrieu only prevailed by 5% in 2008 despite Democratic assurances that she was in no real danger.

Is there a Democrat who could rise to take advantage of Vitter’s scandal? Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu is a Democrat - but he is also Mary’s brother, and it is doubtful any state would elect two siblings as its Senators. The DSCC’s recruiters will surely start with Secretary of State Jay Dardenne and Rep. Charlie Melancon. But they will have to first answer this simple question: Can Democrats still win a truly contested election in post-Katrina Louisiana?

10. Ohio (George Voinovich)

The first question mark is whether Senator George Voinovich (a two-term Senator who served two gubernatorial terms in the 1990s) runs for re-election. Retirement rumors have been swirling, and an early exit would dramatically alter the field of play. Ohio is one of the country’s closest swing states, so we would surely be treated to a top-notch Senate battle.

For now, however, Voinovich has been preparing for another run: he already has more than $2.5 million in the bank! This does not mean that Democrats will be scared away. They have made big gains in the state over the past two cycles, conquering most of the statewide offices, defeating a Republican Senator in 2006 and picking-up four House seats. A number of Democrats could make this race a top-tier contest, starting with Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and Rep. Tim Ryan.

11. Kansas (Open)

The situation created by Sam Brownback’s retirement is strikingly simple. Either term-limited Democratic Governor Sebelius jumps in and this race skyrockets to the top of the rankings; or she stays away and Democrats have no hope of winning their first Kansas Senate race in since 1936.

For now, the DSCC has reason to hope: Sebelius looked certain to join Obama’s Administration and a Cabinet appointment would have barred her from running. But her decision to abruptly withdraw her name from consideration increased the speculation that she is looking to jump in the Senate race.

Republicans, meanwhile, are preparing for a heated primary between Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt. Moran has already announced his candidacy while Tiahrt is only mulling a run. Both have a conservative profile, but their opposition could ignite the Kansas GOP’s famously nasty ideological split with Tiahrt in the role of the movement conservative. This would help Sebelius’s general election prospects.

12. Illinois (Unknown)

The Blagojevich scandal has injected complete chaos in this race. The only thing we know for sure is that there will be an election in November 2010. What we do not know is whether there will be an election before then.

Over the past week, Democrats have been backing away from calling a special election to fill Barack Obama’s seat, meaning that the most likely scenario is for the seat to remain vacant until Democrats manage to remove Blagojevich from office. It would then be up to currently-Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn to appoint a Senator - either a caretaker or a Democrat willing to run for re-election in 2010. It is impossible to handicap the race before knowing who Quinn might appoint.

But all bets are off if there is enough pressure for Democrats to be forced to call a special election in the spring of 2009, stripping the Governor of his appointment powers. A special election would be a wonderful opportunity for Republicans to pick-up a Senate seat: Democrats face a divisive primary, their nominee would be plagued by the taint of the Blagojevich scandal, and GOP Reps. Kirk and Roskam could jump in the race without having to fear losing their House seats.

Likely retention (8 D, 2 R)

13. California (Barbara Boxer)

California’s 2010 gubernatorial election is an open race since Arnold Schwarzenegger is term-limited. This is both good news and bad news for Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer. On the one hand, Schwarzenegger is free to challenge Boxer. On the other hand, ambitious California Republicans are far more likely to try their luck in the gubernatorial race - meaning that Arnold could be all Boxer has to worry about. Whether this race is competitive, then, is likely to depend on the Governator’s decision.

That said, the first obstacle to an Arnold candidacy could be the GOP primary, as a conservative Republican could try and derail him. Arnold has angered conservative during his gubernatorial tenure, and California’s Republican primaries have tended to be a minefield for moderates. Another factor could be Diane Feinstein’s possible gubernatorial candidacy. This could lead Arnold to wait for Feinstein’s Senate seat to open up rather than challenge Boxer.

14. Delaware (Open)

This race is a special election that is being held because of Joe Biden’s resignation. The state’s Governor appointed a caretaker (longtime Biden aide Edward Kaufman) in an obvious effort to save the seat for state Attorney General Beau Biden, who is currently serving in Iraq. This transparently nepotistic maneuver has angered the entourage of outgoing Lieutenant Governor Carney, who was hoping to get the appointment. Kaufman has already confirmed that he will not seek re-election in 2010, so Delaware Democrats could be treated to a contentious primary battle between Carney and Beau.

The GOP’s only shot at the seat is to recruit Rep. Mike Castle, a popular Republican who has represented the state’s at-large seat since 1992. If Castle passes on the race (he is old and with health issues), the Democratic primary will likely decide the final winner; if Castle jumps in, we could have a highly competitive and somewhat unpredictable race on our hands.

15. Hawaii (Daniel Inouye)

The most relevant question in this race is not whether Democratic Senator Daniel Inouye will run for re-election but whether Republican Governor Linda Lingle will attempt to move to Washington. Lingle is term-limited and cannot stay in the Governor’s mansion past 2010, so she has nothing to lose by attempting a senatorial run. The GOP has no bench in Hawaii and Lingle’s victory in 2002 was a breakthrough for state Republicans. Lingle is popular enough that she would be a very credible Senate candidate.

That said, Hawaii remains a staunchly Democratic state, and for a Republican to win a federal state is a difficult proposition. Lingle would face a particularly uphill climb if she faces Inouye, who has been serving in Congress since Hawaii achieved statehood in the 1950s. Inouye would be running for his ninth term in 2010, at age 86, and he recently announced that he would run again.

The GOP’s best case scenario is for Inouye to retire and Lingle to jump in the race - and even then Hawaii’s overwhelming blueness would make the race no better than a toss-up for the GOP. If Lingle faces Inouye, she would have a shot at an upset but Inouye would start as the very clear favorite. And if Lingle does not run, the seat will quickly fall down the rankings.

16. New York (Unknown)

This race is a special election to fill the reminder of Hillary’s Clinton term; the winner will face re-election again in 2012. It is difficult to handicap the race until Governor Paterson announces his pick sometime after Hillary Clinton is confirmed as Secretary of State in January - though I have repeatedly cautioned not to regard Caroline Kennedy as the most electable option. Her campaigning skills are so untested and her public record is so small that she could prove an electoral disaster just as easily as a political goldmine. There is also the possibility that Paterson appoint a caretaker who would not run for re-election in 2010.

Any Democratic candidate would be helped by the simple fact that New York’s Republican Party is moribund, and there are few Republicans who can hope to be competitive statewide. One is Rudy Giuliani, but after his catastrophic presidential campaign the former New York City Mayor no longer looks formidable; Giuliani is also said to be more interested in a gubernatorial run.

Another Republican who is openly considering the Senate race is Rep. Peter King, one of the state’s three remaining Republican House members. King would undoubtedly be a credible enough candidate to exploit any Democratic mistakes, particularly if Paterson appoints a political novice; but this is New York, and King is unlikely to get very far without Democratic help.

17. Iowa (Chuck Grassley)

Tom Vilsack’s nomination as Secretary of Agriculture clarified the situation in this race by removing from consideration the only Democrat who would have given five-term Senator Chuck Grassley a run for his money. If Grassley runs again, he is unlikely to face a difficult race; but Grassley is on everyone’s retirement watch - and an open seat in this increasingly blue state would become one of the Democrats’ top takeover opportunity.

18. North Dakota (Byron Dorgan)

Like Kansas and Hawaii, the competitiveness of this race is contingent on the candidacy of one man and one man only: Governor John Hoeven. If Hoeven declines to run, popular Democratic incumbent Byron Dorgan will cruise towards re-election. If Hoeven jumps in the race, this will become a battle of political titans.

Despite the state’s Republican lean, Dorgan is a popular incumbent with the advantage of seniority (not to mention that he is the chairman of the Appropriations subcommittee on energy and water issues). And North Dakota is not as reliably red as it once was: John McCain did end up winning the state, but Obama mounted a very solid effort. Will that be enough to scare Hoeven away?

19. Washington (Patty Murray)

In 2004, Republicans made a lot of noise about challenging Patty Murray and they extensively touted their candidate, Rep. Nethercutt. But in what was otherwise a good year for Senate Republicans, the often-underestimated Murray easily won re-election. Since then, Washington has grown even more reliably Democratic, giving Barack Obama a crushing margin over John McCain and handing Governor Gregoire an easier-than-expected victory in 2008. The GOP’s bench in the state is stretched thin, and there is little reason for the party’s few credible potential candidates - Rep. Reichert, for instance - to try their luck.

20. Wisconsin (Russ Feingold)

Senator Russ Feingold is a perennial Republican target, though he won a relatively easy re-election race in 2004. To make this race competitive, the GOP would need to find a very strong recruit and hope that the national environment pushes them. After all, Feingold is a longtime Democratic incumbent sitting in a blue state - and one in which Barack Obama crushed John McCain. Unfortunately for Republicans, they have a weak bench in Wisconsin. Potential candidates include state Attorney General John Van Hollen and Rep. Paul Ryan, a rising Republican star who is only 38 and might not want to endanger his career in such a difficult race.

21. Arizona (John McCain)

There is no question that Senator John McCain is vulnerable. He failed to get 50% in last spring’s Super Tuesday Republican primary and he ended up winning the state by single-digits against Barack Obama after being forced to schedule an emergency last-minute campaign stop. That said, McCain looks relatively secure. For one, McCain remains a force in Arizona politics and he now has two years to reestablish his popularity with independents.

Second, Governor Janet Napolitano’s nomination as Barack Obama’s Homeland Security Secretary removed McCain’s top potential challenger - and one that was already handily defeating him in early polls. Third, most ambitious Democrats are likely to jump in the gubernatorial race rather than launch an unlikely challenge to McCain. A retirement would naturally dramatically alter the playing field, but for now McCain has been positioning himself to run for re-election.

22. Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln)

In 2008, Arkansas Republicans did not even field a candidate against Democratic Senator Mark Pryor. Can they do better against Blanche Lincoln, who will run for a third term in 2010? The state has been clearly drifting in the GOP column, and Republicans desperately want to contest this seat. That said, Arkansas remains a reliably Democratic state at the local level, and the Republican bench is very weak. That explains why the race is ranked so low.

Some Republican names have been circulating - most notably that of interim prosecutor Tom Griffin, who was involved in the US Attorney’s scandal two years ago. (The GOP’s dream candidate is former Governor Mike Huckabee, but he is too wrapped up in preparations for a 2012 presidential run to risk it all in a difficult Senate race.)

Safe

23. Georgia (Johnny Isakson)

Saxby Chambliss’s re-election race suggested that Democrats have a path to unseating Republican incumbents in the Peach State (Martin received 46% of the first round vote) but it also demonstrated how red a state Georgia remains (Chambliss crushed Martin by 15% in the runoff). In 2010, Democrats might not suffer from as abysmal a turnout of their share as they did on December 2nd, but the share of the African-American vote is unlikely to be as high as it was on November 4th - and Democrats still have no clear roadmap to winning statewide races in Georgia.

They have no obvious candidate either. A recent PPP poll found Isakson under 50% against two potential challengers, Rep. Jim Marshall and Attorney General Thurbert Baker. There is little pointing to either considering a run.

24. South Carolina (Jim DeMint)

A Senator’s first re-election campaign is always the trickiest one, which is the only reason to think Democrats have any hope of unseating Jim DeMint. South Carolina is a heavily Republican state in federal races and it has gone increasingly red at the state-level as well, meaning that Democrats have a thin bench and no obvious candidate.

25. Alaska (Lisa Murkowski)

In 2008, Alaska proved that it was one of the most reliably Republican states of the country. Embattled GOP Rep. Don Young scored one of the biggest upsets of the cycle by defeating top Democratic challenger Ethan Berkowitz, and convicted felon Ted Stevens came within a few points of winning re-election. Sure, Young and Stevens are both towering titans of Alaskan politics - a title Lisa Murkowski cannot claim. But it would take nothing short of a Murkowski indictment for Democrats to have a shot - and even then, they have a rather thin bench.

On the other hand, the Republican primary could be one of the most entertaining races of the cycle if Sarah Palin decides to challenge Murkowski. (The GOP’s former vice-presidential nominee defeated Lisa’s father Frank in the 2006 gubernatorial primary, and one of the reasons Frank Murkowski was so unpopular then was that he appointed his daughter Lisa to replace him in the Senate.)

26. Maryland (Mikulski)

If longtime Senator Barbara Mikulski runs for re-election, she will be unlikely to face a serious Republican opponent: She is an entrenched incumbent in a solidly Democratic state. But Mikulski is rumored to be eying retirement. An open seat could create a competitive race, though Democrats would start with the upper-hand.

27. Oregon (Ron Wyden)

Democratic Senator Ron Wyden is finishing his second full term, and it’s hard to see him in much danger in 2010. First, Wyden is a popular incumbent - so popular, in fact, that Republican Senator Gordon Smith touted his relationship with Wyden in his 2008 campaign ads. Second, Oregon reconnected with its reliably Democratic roots this year, giving Barack Obama a huge victory and making it that much more difficult to envision a GOP comeback.

It’s unlikely Wyden will attract top opposition; Gordon Smith might be the only credible Republican candidate, but how could he defeat an incumbent he himself praised when he couldn’t win his own re-election race?

28. Alabama (Richard Shelby)

First elected as a Democrat in 1986, Senator Shelby switched parties in 1994. Since then, the South has become the GOP’s only safe refuge and Democrats have had a tough time in Alabama. That said, they performed exceptionally well in 2008, picking-up AL-02 and holding on to conservative AL-05. Ambitious state Democrats - like Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, Rep. Arthur Davis and Rep. Bobby Bright - are more likely to jump in the gubernatorial race than to challenge Shelby.

29. South Dakota (John Thune)

Democrats would love to defeat freshman Senator John Thune, but it’s difficult to see who could defeat Tom Dashle’s 2004 slayer. Often mentioned as a future presidential or vice-presidential candidate, Thune represents a staunchly Republican state and he already had $3,730,617 in the bank at the end of the third quarter of 2008. Furthermore, he no longer has to worry about Dashle seeking a rematch since the former Senate Majority Leader is now Obama’s HHS Secretary. One potential Democratic candidate is Rep. Stephanie Herseth, who is said to be eying a higher position. But Herseth would be much better served running for Governor or waiting for Tim Johnson’s retirement from the state’s other Senate seat.

30. Indiana (Evan Bayh)

Democratic Senator Evan Bayh is a popular - and very entrenched - incumbent who is unlikely to draw serious Republican opposition. He served two terms as Governor and then won two senatorial elections - in 1998 and in 2004. And if this was not enough to keep potential challengers at bay, he enters 2009 with a huge war chest: As of September 30th, Bayh had $11 million of cash on hand.

Furthermore, Indiana is no longer the staunchly conservative state of Bayh’s first election: Barack Obama stunningly prevailed in the state, a shift of 21% since the 2004 election. The hundreds of thousands of new registrants that have now been brought into the mix will help all Indiana Democrats in the years ahead.

31. Oklahoma (Tom Coburn)

In any other state, as conservative and controversial a Senator as Tom Coburn would be in grave danger. But Oklahoma became the country’s reddest state in 2008: John McCain won every single county and Senator Inhofe demolished promising Democratic state Senator Andrew Rice. The only threat to Coburn’s reelection is Democratic Governor Brad Henry, who will be term-limited out his job in 2010. Unfortunately for the DSCC, Henry has rather emphatically declared that he is unlikely to run for Senate, citing the stress it would put on his family life.

32. Connecticut (Chris Dodd)

Democratic Senator Chris Dodd’s approval ratings are not particularly high (48% in a recent Quinnipiac poll) and his position on the Senate’s Banking Committee could give Republicans an opening to link him to the financial mess. That said, Connecticut is a heavily Democratic state, Dodd is a five-term incumbent and Republicans have no obvious candidate other than Governor Jodi Rell. This is a similar situation as in Vermont: Rell is up for re-election in 2010, so she would have to give up her relatively safe job for a very difficult race.

33. Vermont (Pat Leahy)

Now that Democrats are durably in the majority, Democratic Senator Pat Leahy gets to chair the Senate’s Judiciary Committee - and for that reason alone he is likely to run for re-election in 2010. The only Republican who could potentially cause him some headaches is Governor Jim Douglas. But Douglas has to run for re-election in 2010, so why would he abandon his relatively safe job for a quixotic effort to topple Leahy?

34. New York (Chuck Schumer)

The Empire State’s Republican Party is moribund, Chuck Schumer is a popular Democratic incumbent with remarkable fundraising skills and, to the extent that any credible Republicans with statewide ambitions can be found, they are far more likely to jump in the two other New York races that will be on the ballot in 2010: the gubernatorial race and the special election for Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat.

35. Idaho (Mike Crapo)

In 2004, Senator Mike Crapo won re-election with more than 99% of the vote as he was running opposed. Finding a candidate to run would already represent progress for Democrats.

36. Utah (Bob Bennett)

Three-term Senator Bob Bennett will remain Utah’s Senator for as long as he wants to be.


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48 votes

Due a familial trip to Canada, I am cutting down blogging hours for the day - but electoral news are showing no sign of slowing down in the holiday season. Here is a quick attempt at staying on top of the Minnesota recount.

As I explained on Saturday, Al Franken’s estimated lead of 251 votes at the end of the canvassing board’s count was a fragile one: It did not take into account the more than 5,000 withdrawn challenges that election officials had not had time to process.

Today, The Star Tribune reported that Franken should stay ahead by a stunningly tight 48 votes once all these withdrawals get processed! While the canvassing board’s will not release an official tally until December 30th, The Star Tribune’s number - based on a draft of a document obtained from the SoS office - is very significant: It firmly puts Al Franken in the driver’s saet.

For the first time since November 4th, Franken is now undoubtedly the leader of this Senate race. In a remarkable role reversal, it is now up to Coleman to find ways to send the game in overtime; it is up to Coleman to win court cases, contest ballots, find innovative issues to delay the count’s certification.

And, however few 48 votes might seem, Coleman has few paths available to him to close that gap.

For one, Franken’s lead looks to be (barely) superior to the 46 votes the Democrat stands to lose if Coleman gets a court to throw out the count of the 133 ballots that have gone missing in a Minneapolis precinct (the canvassing board has allowed that one precinct to use its Election Night count rather than its recounted tally). In other words, a judicial victory on this one issue would not be enough for Coleman to take lead.

In a supremely ironic twist, Coleman’s prospects are now dependent on the 1,600 improperly rejected absentee ballots. Consider this: For much of the past month, Franken’s campaign arguing those votes should be counted and Coleman’s camp was insisting that they should be left out. But now that Franken is ahead, the roles have been reversed and the GOP could found itself pleading for as expansive a tally as possible.

Coleman’s second hope is the issue of 130 duplicate ballots, which Republicans argue overwhelmingly benefited Franken. The case will now be heard by the state Supreme Court. “The fact that over 100 votes have been double-counted, overwhelmingly benefiting Al Franken, simply underscores the fact that their lead is not real,” said the Coleman camp. It is unclear just how many votes Coleman stands to gain if the Supreme Court rules that those 130 ballots should be thrown out - and for now odds are against the Justices taking such a drastic decision.

It is telling of how difficult a position Coleman now finds himself that he is primarily relying on a batch of ballots (improperly rejected absentee ballots) whose counting he so desperately tried to stop.



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  • All good things must come to an end

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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What remains on the table

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Confusion in Connecticut (Updated)

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Results thread, part 2: Dems suffer staggering losses in House and legislatives races, limit damage in statewide races

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election Night results thread: Rep. Boucher’s fall first surprise of the night

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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