Poll watch: Chambliss keeps the lead, Reid is vulnerable

All Georgia polls released since November 4th have found a narrow lead for Saxby Chambliss, and the latest Research 2000 survey (the group’s third runoff poll) is no exception: The Republican Senator leads 52% to 46%.

The trendline is stable, as Chambliss led by 6% in a poll released last week; two weeks ago, Research 2000 found him ahead by 3%. Very interestingly, each of Research 2000’s polls has found an increasingly Republican likely voter universe. In this latest survey, respondents say they voted for Chambliss by 10% on November 4th (he led Martin by 3% on that day), suggesting that Martin has progressed among some voters but that his base is not planning to turn out at a high enough level to carry him to victory.

That has been the consensus we had already reached using other indicators (early voting demographics, number of high-profile surrogates). Polls like Research 2000’s confirm that Martin remains the underdog - but he is certainly not out of the race as he remains in close contact with the incumbent and could certainly be carried across the finish line with a surge of Democratic excitement.

Meanwhile, another Research 2000 poll tested Nevada’s 2010 Senate race, and it looks like Harry Reid better hope that his potential rivals get disqualified early (as I wrote about this morning) because he certainly deserves the title of most endangered Democratic incumbent.

The poll only tested a match-up between Reid and GOP Rep. Porter, who just lost his re-election race in NV-03 three weeks ago. Reid is only ahead 46% to 40% - well under the 50% vulnerability threshold.

Needless to say, for the Senate Majority Leader to post a 6% lead two years before the election against a potential challenger who only mustered 42% in his own re-election race a few weeks ago is not a good sign. The poll’s internal numbers paint an even grimmer picture, as only 38% of respondents approve of Reid’s performance (versus 54%) and only 32% want him to be re-elected (versus 41%). This will be a top-tier race if the GOP finds a good recruit - and that’s a big if, of course.

Finally, Quinnipiac tested New York’s mayoral race, which will take place next fall. The situation is still somewhat confused since city politicians were preparing for an open race until Mike Bloomberg managed to reform the term limit law to be allowed to run for a third term. Of all the Democrats who were eying the race, how many will now dare run against Bloomberg and his unlimited cash?

Two potential candidates are Rep. Anthony Weiner and City Comptroller William Thomspon. Bloomberg leads against both, 50% to 34% against Weiner and 49% to 34% against Thompson. And while Bloomberg’s lead might be larger because New Yorkers don’t have a good sense of either of these two Democrats, the poll also finds that 66% of respondents approve of his job performance. That popular an incumbent is very hard to beat. (Note that Bloomberg’s approval rating is actually declining, as it stood at 75% in the previous Quinnipiac poll. The Mayor has taken a few hits since then, especially during the term-limit debate.)

One potential wild card in this race is that Bloomberg will most probably run as an independent, while he ran as a Republican in 2001 and 2005. Will Republicans nominate a candidate of their own, then? If they find a contender with some stature, his votes would most likely come from Bloomberg’s ranks. Could that endanger the incumbent?

5 Responses to “Poll watch: Chambliss keeps the lead, Reid is vulnerable”


  1. 1 jacksmith

    WE HAVE MORE TO DO:

    Democrat Jim Martin is in a runoff against Bush Republican Saxby Chambliss for the Senate seat from Georgia. Bush’s Saxby Chambliss voted against spending a few measly dollars to provide health care coverage for Georgia, and Americas needy children. But he supported wasting hundreds of billions of your dollars, and the life BLOOD of Americas finest on an unnecessary war in Iraq.

    At a time when 47 million of you have no health insurance coverage, and over 100 million of you with insurance are just one major illness away from complete financial destruction. Bush and Saxby Chambliss voted to make the heart break of bankruptcy relief even harder for all of you to use.

    You see, Bush and Saxby Chambliss, and his family don’t have to worry about their health care coverage. They have the finest health care coverage your tax money can buy for them. Courtesy of you. The American Tax payer. In fact, no one but the super rich can afford the health care coverage you the tax payer provide for Saxby Chambliss, and his family for FREE! with your tax dollars.

    He supposedly works for you. But he doesn’t think you and your family should have access to the type of taxpayer supported FREE health care that you provide for him, and his loved ones for FREE!. Doesn’t that just make you BURRING MAD!

    Vote for JIM MARTIN for US senator from Georgia. Vote for JIM Martin who will be on your side. Vote for JIM MARTIN who will work with President Obama and a majority congress for you. Vote for JIM MARTIN most of all for your-self, your family’s, friends, and loved ones. Vote for JIM MARTIN for a better America, and a better World.

    Don’t let Saxby Chambliss make a chump out of you by tricking you into voting against your own best interest. Saxby chambliss is NOT! on your side. He’s not one of you. He is on George Bush’s side. And we all know what a catastrophe the Bush Chambliss administration has been the past 8 years.

    Contact all your family and friends and do every thing you can to see to it that JIM MARTIN and GEORGIANS! take that senate seat back for Georgia, and America. No matter where you live in America. This is important to you. President Obama will need all the help, and power you can give him to try and fix this catastrophic mess that the Corrupt Bush Chambliss administration has created.

    As I said before you will have to vote in overwhelming numbers to overcome the Bush Chambliss “Let Them Eat Cake” vote fraud machine. Vote early if you can. Then help everyone you can get to the polls and vote for JIM MARTIN. You and your loved ones don’t have to be Saxby Chambliss’s victims anymore.

    I know you will get it done. Just like you did for President Obama.

    God bless all of you

    jacksmith - WORKING CLASS… :-)

  2. 2 Jaxx Raxor

    Jim Martin’s probably not going to win, primarly because the Democrat base just isn’t as enthused as during November 4th. The only way Martin could win would be if Obama was going all out for him by visiting Georgia and consistenly campaigning for him, but as he is more concerned with getting his economic team ready and that he is wary of losing valuable Political Capital, their is no chance of this happening, and Black turnout where therefore be too low for Martin to come closer to Chambliss, let alone win.

    On Harry Reid, these numbers do seem very weak for him, and indeed a big reason why is probably his very high profile role as the partisan Democratic Majority leader. However, unlike Tom Dashle, who lost a close race in 2004, Reid will have the huge benefit of having a President who won in Nevada by double digits (after all, in South Dakota Bush had won big, while in Nevada in 2008 conversly, Obama won big). Combined with how historically difficult it is to dislodge a leader of the party shows why Republicans shouldn’t get too optismtic yet. Obama would campaign for Reid, which would be a big help in getting Democrats and independents to condalence around the Senate Majority leader. Plus, as Taniel said, Reid has to get a credible challanger. This is only one poll, but perhaps soon to be ex-Rep Porter is still the strongest candidate against Reid, but it is possible after his loss that he just decides not to run out of not being dissapointed again, although he wouldn’t have anything to lose now. And of course if the Lt. Governor Krolicki has his legal problems, and the most obvious problem of being associated with very unpopular Governor Jim Gibbons. And if either of these men wants to have the chance to actually knock off Reid, especially if Obama is still popular in Nevada by 2010, then they basically need to start the groundwork for a campaign in early 2009, otherwise they won’t get through. Also, IMO, the most vulernable Democrat is not Reid (although that may change of course) but Ken Salazar of Colorado, who isn’t overwhelming popular. Of course, the GOP bench is pretty thin in Colorado, just like in Nevada.

  3. 3 Anonymous

    If Obama campaigned for Martin and Martin loses anyway, so what? Obama won’t be able to do health care reform? Get appointees through the Senate? Lieberman won’t give the 60th vote?World leaders will ignore Obama? Pleeease.

  4. 4 Anonymous

    When Bush II stood on the deck of that carrier he had more “Political Capital” than any President since Dec.8,1941 and just what did it get him? Zero, Zilch,Nothing. “Political Capital” is highly overrated.IMHO

  1. 1 Nevada Senate Seat 2010 from Campaigndiaries.com « Eclectic Buzz Blog

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