Campaign Diaries

[Updated with new Martin ad] Georgia’s Senate runoff promises to be tight, but with a week to go before voters return to the polls all signs still suggest that Jim Martin remains the underdog.

For one, Republicans still look like they will have an edge in mobilizing their camp despite the enthusiasm gap that plagued them throughout 2008. For one, early voting statistics find that African-Americans are still voting well under their share of the electorate. After eight days of voting, blacks made up 22,5% of the early electorate (236,992 voters have already cast their ballot).

Second, more Republican politicians are traveling to Georgia. John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney already crisscrossed the state while Sarah Palin just announced that she would stump with Chambliss next Monday. Such gestures have the potential to impact the race: In a low-turnout election, for the conservative base to find itself fired up the day before the election could boost Chambliss’s numbers.

Bill Clinton came to Georgia on behalf of Martin, but Barack Obama’s absence from the state remains very noticeable. In fact, given that Martin seems to be facing a drop among black and young voters, a visit by Obama might be the only way for Martin to energize the Democratic base enough to score an upset next Tuesday. Jim Martin’s new ad leaves no doubt that the Democratic candidate is hoping to ride Obama’s coattails, even though Georgia is a conservative state that went for McCain. Martin pledges to “helpBarack Obama pass a middle-class tax cut”:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SxyiY3uVkU"]

While the concerns of Obama’s team that he would waste some of his political capital if he went to Georgia but Chambliss got re-elected are understandable, does he not already risk being tied to a Martin defeat given that he recorded a radio ad and a robocall?

Meanwhile, three new polls released over the past 24 hours find Chambliss ahead - though the margin remains narrow enough that anything is possible:

• Chambliss leads 52% to 46% in a Public Policy Polling survey. PPP adds that it did not find a drop in African-American participation, but it is estimating that the runoff electorate will be significantly older than that of the general election - a development that is sure to favor the Republican.

• Chambliss leads 50% to 47% in a Politico/Insider Advantage poll. Unlike PPP, IA weighted the black vote - and it did so at 25%, significantly lower than on November 4th but higher than the early vote proportion.

• The DSCC released an internal poll showing Chambliss ahead 48% to 46%. No additional details were provided.

Given the difficulty of polling lower-turnout contests, the most useful data is a poll’s trendline - but Research 2000 is the only pollster to have released two runoff surveys for now (Chambliss expanded his lead). PPP will release a second poll on Monday.

Looking ahead to 2010, PPP tested hypothetical match-ups between Republican Senator Johnny Isakson (easily elected to a Dem-held open seat in 2004) and potential challengers. The poll’s primary finding is that Isakson remains mostly unknown; he leads both Democrats (Attorney General Thurbert Baker and Rep. Jim Marshall) by single-digits and is under 50%, suggesting that he is beatable. But Isakson does not look vulnerable enough for now for top-tier Democrats to jump in the race. Perhaps would they be more inclined to do so if Martin knocks off Chambliss next Tuesday?