Campaign Diaries

Bill Richardson looks set to be unveiled as the Obama Administration’s Secretary of Commerce, in what could be the surest sign yet that Hillary Clinton is set to move to Foggy Bottom. That would also open New Mexico’s governorship. (Richardson was scheduled to leave his post in 2010 due to term-limits.)

Unlike neighboring Arizona, where Republican Secretary of State Brewer might soon take over for Janet Napolitano, Richardson would be replaced by a Democrat: Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish. You might remember Denish’s name circulating last fall, when Democrats were looking for a candidate to run for the open Senate seat. Denish quickly indicated that she would not run, in what everyone took as a sign that she had her sights set on the Governor’s mansion.

If Richardson is indeed confirmed as Secretary of Commerce, Denish’s wishes would come true two years early, giving Democrats the upper-hand for the 2010 election since Denish would then be able to run as the incumbent. (This is the exact inverse of what might happen in Arizona.) Of course, New Mexico Republicans were just decimated last November as Democrats comfortably picked-up one Senate and two House seats to take total control of the state’s congressional delegation. That did not bode well for the GOP’s gubernatorial hopes in an open seat - and their prospects are even lower if they face a Governor Diane Denish.

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In Georgia, the GOP is being set back in the turnout war it is waging against the DSCC. The RNC printed and sent absentee request forms to thousands of Republican voters - but the form that they sent was a somewhat complicated version in which it was easy for requesters to miss a required signature line. As a result, thousands of forms received by election officials have been rejected - The Atlanta Journal Constitution estimates that number to be at about 10,000 in DeKalb and County counties alone.

The AJC adds that more than half of the RNC-printed request cards are being rejected in DeKalb County - a ratio that does not bode well for the GOP’s turnout effort if it is holding across the state. Running an effective ground operation is important in any election, of course, but particularly so in this runoff in which turnout should be low and in which both parties have to mobilize their base. Republicans will now have to go back to all these voters and make sure their forms have been processed - and they of course have a very small time window to work with since the runoff is being held in 9 days.

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Finally, in New York’s upcoming gubernatorial race, Marist released the week’s second match-up between Governor Paterson and Rudy Giuliani. Just like Sieana found a few days ago, Marist’s poll finds Paterson leading his potential opponent (51% to 41%). More importantly, Paterson enjoys a strong approval rating, 51% versus 37%. Marist also finds Paterson leading Mike Bloomberg 44% to 40% despite trailing by 11% in an October poll.

It is hard to see any Republican other than Rudy having any hope in this race (and it is debatable, of course, how electable Giuliani is nowadays). That makes Paterson-Giuliani match-ups particularly valuable, as they demonstrate the incumbent’s strength. As for Bloomberg, he would certainly be a threat to Albany’s Democratic rule if he were to jump in the race (particularly given the millions he would bring with him to the race), but it now looks highly unlikely he will give it a try given that he got the New York City Council to allow him to run for a third term in 2009.