Campaign Diaries

Georgia’s runoff might be attracting most of the attention, but the vote in LA-04 will come just a few days after and will be decided by similar factors: Do voters think that the GOP has been punished enough? Which party’s base will turnout the most? The uncertainty about who will show up to the polls in these December elections might be responsible for polling divergences in Louisiana, as three surveys of the December 6th vote were released today:

• SUSA finds Republican candidate John Fleming leading 47% to 45% after pegging African-American turnout at 27%. SUSA estimates that the margin could range from a Fleming lead of 5% to a Carmouche advantage of 1% depending on the size of African-American turnout.

• An internal Republican poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies finds Fleming leading 43% to 42%.

• An internal Democratic poll conducted by the Kitchens Group finds Paul Carmouche leading 48% to 47%, a 1% improvement from a poll released two weeks ago.

Somewhat puzzlingly, the GOP’s internal poll estimates that 30% of voters will be African-American, while Carmouche’s poll pegs that number at only 22%. While it is understandable that both candidates want to show that they could win under conditions optimal for their opponent, it makes these numbers largely nonsensical. It is hard to conceive of Carmouche leading by 11% if African-Americans only make up 22% of the electorate, for instance.

Meanwhile, with three days of early voting now completed in Georgia, the first concrete turnout numbers we have continue to be worrisome for Democrats. Less than 23% of the nearly 64,000 early voters are African-American, far less than the 29% they represent in the electorate at large and the 35% they made up in the general election’s early voting. To make matters worse, the share of the black vote has gone down over the past day (it stood at 24% yesterday), suggesting that this is not caused by a one day aberration. Jim Martin will have to find a way to motivate his base in the coming weeks.

Yesterday’s rally with Bill Clinton could help achieve that, as the former President called on (Democratic) voters to stand by Barack Obama and send Martin to help him. “We don’t need a firewall, we need a bridge. Martin’s the bridge, Chambliss is the firewall,” he said. “Two weeks ago, you voted for the bridge. Don’t let Georgia put a firewall in front of the bridge.” Another potential boost to Democratic turnout will be supplied by the AFL-CIO, which is sending organizers and investing money. The union is preparing to unleash 10,000 volunteers to canvass for Martin; it is also sending out mailers and distributing fliers.